ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT
One to start, One to sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.
Sunday’s match-ups
Ravens @ Bills
Best Option
BAL- Joe Flacco
BUF- EJ Manuel
Both defenses are struggling against the pass, with the Bills giving up 262 yards a game, and Baltimore giving up close to 270 through the air, which has brought both defenses rank on the bottom half of passing defenses in the NFL. Although Flacco, and Manuel are the leaders of their respected run first offenses, due to the impressive front lines for both teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both squads air it out on Sunday. Expect Flacco to bounce back from his poor performances of the last two weeks, and EJ to continue to surprise defenses with his arm, as well as his legs.
Worst Option
BAL- Bernard Pierce
BUF- Bills Def/ST
While the Bills do have a favorable run matchup (allowing 155 yards on the ground a game (tied for 3rd worst in the NFL), a lot of Pierce’s value rests upon if Ray Rice returns. While he has practiced all week and is listed as questionable for the game on Sunday, I believe Rice plays and takes a huge chunk out of Pierce’s value. If he doesn’t, Pierce is a must start if you have him. Buffalo’s defense struggles against the pass and has a lot of problems stopping the run. Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown a pick in two weeks, and Baltimore’s offense while it doesn’t have many big named weapons, can still put up points. With the beating Baltimore’s defense put on Houston last week (2 defensive TD’s), and giving up 27 points to the Jets last week, I can’t recommend the Bills defense in this one. Avoid at all costs.
Bengals @ Browns
Best Option
CIN- AJ Green
CLE- Josh Gordon
It doesn’t matter who’s covering him, AJ Green is defense proof. See below for his stats against the Browns and Joe Haden and you’ll see why. Not to mention, Cleveland’s passing defense ranks 12th in the NFL, however they’ve yet to face a team with a big name receiver that Cincy possesses. Add the 12 targets a game Green’s been seeing, and you got yourself another monster week. Cincinnati’s been struggling this season against opposing team’s top WR (Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown) and after what Gordon did to the Vikings last week as well as the incredible amount of targets he received ( 10 receptions on 19 targets, 146 yards, 1 td), you can’t deny he’s definitely Brian Hoyer’s favorite target.
Worst Option
CIN- BenJarvis Green Ellis/Giovanni Bernard
CLE- Brian Hoyer
This section used to be “Insert any WR going up against Joe Haden here”, but with AJ Green being Haden’s matchup this week, yeah, I’m not too keen on that idea. (14 catches, 193 yards, 3 TD’s vs the Browns last season). So instead, it’s the Bengals backfield in trouble this week. The Browns have given up only 84 yards rushing a game (with 2 fumbles). To say this was a fluke would be the understatement of the week. They’ve held Fantasy RB Beasts Adrian Peterson to 88 yards on 25 carries (14 fantasy points), Ray Rice to 36 yards on 13 carries (3 fantasy points), and the Miami Dolphins entire rushing game to a combined 20 yards. Yeah, this running defense is a killer, and the combo of the Law Firm and Bernard won’t be enough to be fantasy relevant this week. While a lot of people (fans and fantasy owners) are jumping on the Brian Hoyer bandwagon this week (321 yards, 3 td’s, 3 Ints), personally, I’m a wait and see kind of guy. Minnesota is 28th in the NFL in passing defense. Cincinnati is 14th. Cincinnati’s defense will get more pressure on Hoyer, and their secondary is 100 times better than that of Minnesota, tread lightly on Hoyer this week as a sneaky QB starter.
Bears @ Lions
Best Option
CHI- Brandon Marshall
DET- Calvin Johnson
This is going to be a clinic for these two. While the Bears and Lions both have 5 INT’s going into this game, it doesn’t matter, Calvin and Marshall are both going to get theirs in this one. Last season, Marshall caught 11 passes for 123 yards and 1 TD in their two matchups, while Calvin had less than stellar numbers, 8 catches, 106 yards, zero TD’s, but now has Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, and Ryan Broyles to take some of the pressure off. Even with the Lions losing Nate Burlson with a broken arm, it just means they’ll be leaning on Megatron even more to produce in this game.
Worst Option
CHI- Def/ST
DET- Def/ST
Maybe I was wrong on Chicago’s defense. While they are producing fantasy points through defensive TD’s and interceptions, they have only racked up 5 sacks this season, and that was against Minnesota, Cincy, and Pittsburgh (who has the worst O-line in the NFL). Detroit is on the same levels as Cincy’s offense, except with a better QB and more versatile RB’s at their disposal, which could spell trouble for the Bears. Tillman is battling injuries, and Peppers still has yet to record a sack. Be advised. Detroit has given up 23 points a game, but their defense has surprisingly been steady. They are tied with Chicago with 5 interceptions, and boast a very angry and fearsome defensive line. On the other end, Chicago’s offense has looked pretty good after 3 games. Their offensive line has looked great (Cutler’s only been sacked 3 times), and while Cutler’s interception problem has always been in existence, he just looks more comfortable in the pocket and has made better throws (he still has thrown 3 interceptions, but is at 6 TD passes already). WR beasts Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson will be a force in this game as well. To start either defense here is a logical move, although don’t be surprised if this one ends up to be a high scoring shoot out.
Giants @ Chiefs
Best Option
NYG- David Wilson
KC- Jamaal Charles
I couldn’t have said it better myself. Matthew Berry hit it directly on the head, in his LOVE/HATE article, “One of these days, David Wilson is going to go off. This weekend makes the most sense, because everyone will have bailed on him, and Kansas City has allowed 5.6 yards per carry this season (most in NFL) and the Giants have to do something to keep Eli upright. Remember, he did have a touchdown called back last week.” The Giants can’t stop anyone on the ground, what are the Chief’s specialty? Running the ball with Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles. The Giants are giving up 4 yards a carry, expect a lot of attempts from Charles and Smith in this one.
Worst Option
NYG- Eli Manning
KC- Donnie Avery
What the hell do you do with Eli Manning every week if he’s on your roster? He’s like the best case scenario equivalent to Ryan Mathews, a QB that will put up points 90% of the time, but will turn the ball over constantly, lowering your score. Ya can’t bench him, just gotta enjoy the weekly roller coaster when he plays. Surprisingly KC’s leading WR after 3 weeks is Donnie Avery with 190 yards and 1 TD… He accumulated 141 of those yards last week against Philly. Where was Dwayne Bowe you ask? Philly zoned in on him for the majority of the game, forcing Alex Smith to go to his other receivers… Dwayne Bowe has less receiving yards than Jamaal Charles. Where is this all leading you may ask? Easily, this won’t last for long. Fear not Dwayne Bowe owners, KC will not pay someone 56 million to be a decoy for Donnie Avery. I say this week Bowe will return to form against the awful Giants and Avery will slip back down to mediocre numbers.
Steelers vs Vikings (At London)
Best Option
MIN- Matt Cassel/AP
PIT- Le’Veon Bell
London games are weird. For the past 3 years, 1 team’s qb did extremely well (New England 2012, Tampa Bay 2011, Denver 2010) while the other team’s QB did extremely poorly (St.Louis 2012, Chicago 2011, San Fran 2010). With the exception of the Pats, the same can be said with the running backs. So going with tradition, I’m gonna do the same thing kinda. I’m not going to go against AP this week because the Steelers are the ANTI STEEL CURTAIN as of now when it comes to run defense. Matt Cassel is getting the nod at QB this week due to Christian Ponder’s rib injury. Cassel hasn’t thrown a pass since November 18th of last year. Last season he threw for 12 ints in just 9 games. However he’s going up against a Steeler defense which has yet to recover a fumble, yet to perform an interception, and just has 3 sacks on the year. If you’re gonna start against someone, might as well be these guys. I had initially had Cassel in my Worst spot, but after seeing just how ineffective the Steelers defense really is, I’m changing my stance. Cassel should have all day to throw against these guys. The Steelers running game could get a shot in the arm on Sunday with their 2nd round draft pick out of Michigan State, Le’Veon Bell returns to the starting lineup. I’d hinder all expectations for Bell since its his first game back from a linfranc injury. Expect Felix Jones and Johnathan Dwyer to still be involved in the backfield, but Bell is the way to go in this game, and possibly for future weeks to come.
Worst Option
MIN- Kyle Rudolph
PIT- Ben Roethlisberger
The Steelers have yet to give up a TD reception to a Tight End. Rudolph’s specialty is being a red zone threat… Get the picture? If the Vikings are going to win this game it won’t be because of the production of Kyle Rudolph. Entering this game, Minnesota has only recorded 4 sacks, but I’d expect that number to possibly double by the end of this game. The Steelers offensive line is awful giving up 10 sacks already to Roethlisberger. Add in the surprising secondary the Vikings have (6 picks in 3 games, granted 3 were against Cleveland), could lead to Big Ben (PUN!) getting trampled on in London.
Cardinals @ Bucs
Best Option
ZONA- Rashad Mendenhall
TB- Mike Williams
I don’t know what Zona is doing with their running back situation, I just know it’s the Bucs weakest point defensively. Mendenhall’s status is probable against the Bucs, and his 15-17 carries a game will probably follow. While he is battling a hamstring issue, Mike Williams does have the best potential to break out this week as he’ll be seeing Tyrann Mathieu (aka the Honey Badger) all game. Mathieu has been hit/miss all season but Williams could be more than enough for him. If Mike Glennon’s going to have a go to guy in this matchup, it’s Williams.
Worst Option
ZONA- Larry Fitzgerald
TB- Vincent Jackson
Larry Fitzgerald, welcome to Revis Island, Vincent Jackson, welcome to Peterson’s Palace ™. Don’t expect much from either of these WR’s with these defensive cornerbacks on them.
Colts @ Jaguars
Best Option
INDY- Trent Richardson
JAX- Maurice Jones Drew
He got a TD his first game as a Colt, this week should be no different, except T-Rich has the entire backfield to himself. Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out of this game (neck injury), so it’ll be T-Rich early and often against the Jags league worst Running defense. Did Indy shut down San Francisco’s running game? Absolutely! Do I care? Nope. Why? Because Jacksonville’s starting Blane Gabbert again and MJD got himself a TD against Seattle. Was it in garbage time? Absolutely! Do I care? NOPE! Garbage time points score the same as regular time points. Also, one game does not make up for the Colts to becoming a defensive fantasy comity. I know it’s against Blane Gabbert, but Jacksonville appears to have switched over from their zone blocking scheme in favor to a man to man/power run game (which is better for MJD). Also, in his one game vs. Indy last season, MJD put up his best stats (28 carries, 177 yards, 1 TD).
Worst Option
INDY- Andrew Luck
JAX- Blaine Gabbert
I don’t know if it’s because they’ve faced 3 run heavy offenses, but Jacksonville is ranked 9th against the pass. Unfortunately, that stat is enough for me to put Andrew Luck here (someone’s gotta be here). To be fair, I’d expect Indy to run the ball a little more in this one with Trent Richardson (vs Jacksonville’s 32nd ranked running defense, who wouldn’t?) And rest on a huge lead. To be fair, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Luck throw for 2-3 TD’s, I just don’t think the yards will be there for him.
It’s Blaine Gabbert, do I really have to explain why?
Seahawks @ Texans
Best Option
SEA- Seattle’s DEF/ST
HOU- Houston’s DEF/ST
Neither of these offenses scare me in this match. Schaub averages an INT a game, and the font lines on the defenses should be strong enough to hold any running game. Wilson could be the X-factor in this game, but I just see the Texans defense being able to hold Seattle’s mediocre passing game. Expect a very low score in this one.
Worst Option
SEA- Marshawn Lynch
HOU- Matt Schaub
I would play Seahawk WR whack a mole this week, but to be honest, Wilson could have a game and one of the WR’s (Rice, Baldwin, Tate) could have a huge fantasy day because of it. Lynch on the other hand, I believe will be the primary focus of the Texans defense. Seattle will want to run a lot with him, but the Texans will want to shut him down immediately. 146 passing yards a game. They’ve shut down Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. Shockingly the Jags offense has done the best against the Seahawks defense (go figure). Does anyone in their right mind think Matt Schaub is going to have a game on Sunday? This is the same Matt Schaub that’s thrown at least 1 int in every game, and is totally awful for at least one half of the game. Didn’t think so.
Jets @ Titans
Best Option
NYJ- Bilal Powell
TENN- Tenn Def/ST
How do you predict this game? Both team’s offenses look horrible on paper, yet the Jets are averaging 18 points a game, and Tennessee is averaging 20… Hmm… Both their defenses range from the upper end to the middle of the pack in the NFL… Guess I’ll have to go with what’s done them the best so far. Jake Locker’s game management, and Bilal Powell’s ability to run the ball. Tennessee has held their opponents to 176 yards through the air and 101 yards on the ground… They’re also facing Geno Smith whom they should be able to pressure easily (average 3 sacks a game). Powell should continue his reign of terror in the Jets backfield with Christopher Ivory missing this week’s game.
Worst Option
NYJ- Stephen Hill
TENN- Chris Johnson
Fred Jackson, 72 yards, Stevan Ridley 40 yards, Doug Martin 65 yards with 1 TD. That’s 1 Touchdown given up to 3 1st/2nd round fantasy RB’s (Countin Jackson as a 1st/2nd rounder unless you want me to mention CJ Spiller’s numbers? Didn’t think so.) While Tennessee Offensive line has improved, their lack of a passing game doesn’t give the Jets too much to fear when it comes to game planning. It also doesn’t help that Tennessee doesn’t hide this by giving the ball to Chris Johnson an average of 23 times a game (include Jackie Battle’s 6 carries and Locker’s 4 rushing attempts as well). The Jets will be ready for anything Johnson has to offer. With safety Bernard Pollard and DE Alterraun Verner leading the secondary, Tennessee has quickly become a surprising starting defense in fantasy football. They managed to hold the high scoring Chargers to just 17 points and have 5 turnovers in just 3 games. Their secondary is their strong point with 16 passes defended as well as holding the opposition to just 206 yards through the air. Stephen Hill may have penciled himself in to some as the Jets #1 WR, but against this Titan’s defense, you may want to go somewhere else for production.
Eagles @ Broncos
Best Option
PHILLY- DeSean Jackson
DEN- Julius Thomas
Decker and Thomas are going to get there, and it may be from a small sample size, but the Eagles are awful when it comes to defending the tight end (7th worst in the NFL). They haven’t surrendered a TD to an opposing tight end yet, but that could easily change with Julius Thomas, who is averaging at least a TD a game. While his receptions have gone down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thomas garner another TD and keep his streak alive. The name of the game is GARBAGE TIME for Philly. I’m sorry but until someone can keep it close with Denver, I’m resulting to this every week. Denver’s passing defense ranks among the worst in the NFL but that’s due to their games being so out of reach, that they switch to prevent for most of the forth quarter. With their front line being able to pressure Vick (worried about him this week) and shut down McCoy leaves things wide open for Philly’s #1 WR.
Worst Option
PHILLY- LeSean McCoy / Philly’s DEF/ST (duh)
DEN- Wes Welker
You would be crazy or a diehard Eagles fan to start their defense in this game. That’s the only thing I’m going to say on that. This is going to be a hell of a matchup. The NFL’s leading rusher vs the NFL’s best rushing defense. Something’s gotta give right? In my opinion it’s going to be McCoy. Due to the fact that by the 2nd half, Philly may have to air it out against Denver. While this does play into McCoy’s abilities (he does have 6 catches for 119 yards), it does not bode well for his carries. Denver’s rushing attack has shut down the likes of Darren McFadden, Terelle Pryor, Ray Rice, and David Wilson (okay that last one shouldn’t count). McCoy’s going to need a lot of help in this game. Lower all expectations. It may be the lack of talent they’ve seen against the slot, or the fact that the top WR/TE on the opposing squad has done so well against them. Either way, I have this feeling that this is the game Wes Welker does nothing. I don’t know why, I just see that the Eagles can’t stop Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker is turning into Manning’s security blanket, and the Eagles are awful against any pass catching Tight End. Add on I refuse to put any Denver RB here because that’s taking the easy way out. Somebody’s gotta lose receptions right? My guess is Welker.
Redskins @ Raiders
Best Option
WASH- RG3
OAK- Darren McFadden
NEWSFLASH! Oakland is going to run in this game, a lot. Regardless on if Pryor plays or not, I fully expect Darren McFadden to break 25-30 carries in this game. Washington gives up over 150 yards on the ground a game, the Raiders offense revolves around the running game. Expect DMC to break out in this one. Oakland’s passing defense is surprisingly close to the middle of the NFL allowing 244 yards a game, but their secondary has not recorded an interception yet. RG3 has struggled so far this season, but remains a top 10 fantasy QB. If Washington hopes to win this game, they’ll have to air it out.
Worst Option
WASH- Alfred Morris
OAK- Denarius Moore
Oakland does have a very underrated running defense. This is the same defense that managed to shut down Maurice Jones Drew earlier in the season, and has not given up 100 yards to a single back either. While Morris is averaging 5.6 yards a carry, you gotta believe with how RG3 is playing (4 INT’s so far this season, sacked 6 times), Oakland’s primary focus is to make Washington beat them by having RG3 throw the ball. Chances are very few people are starting the Raider’s defense this week, my prediction is that Denarius Moore will be a bust this week. DeAngelo Hall should be on him for the majority of the game, and for an offense that has only thrown the ball 81 times in 3 games (27 attempts a game), Moore will be limited to only a handful of chances in this game.
Cowboys @ Chargers
Best Option
DAL- Tony Romo
SD- Antonio Gates
Lick your chops Tony Romo owners, your starting QB is going up against the worst passing defense in the NFL. While he did pass only 24 times last week against the Rams, Romo still managed to throw for 3 TD passes, and put up 20 fantasy points. This week against Chargers, the passing game will be more leaned upon due to San Diego’s ability to put up points (they’ve averaged 28 points a game). Dallas hasn’t given up a breakout game to a Tight End yet, but Antonio Gates is beyond what the Cowboys have seen so far. The Chargers leading receiver, Gates has seen his receptions and targets increase over the past two games. While he does remain the #2 option (as of now) in the red zone. There’s no denying that Phillip Rivers will look to his security blanket often in this game.
Worst Option
DAL- Dallas Def/ST
SD- Ryan Mathews
I hate repeating myself. San Diego averages 28 points a game. Phillip Rivers has only thrown one interception, and while the Dallas Defense has looked impressive lately (6 sacks, 1 fumble last week vs. St.Louis), the Chargers offense is surprisingly on a different level the likes Dallas has yet to see this year. Ryan Mathews is terrible, I’m sorry, but he really is. The guy is in the worst position of all fantasy players, I call them “The Burden Player”, you know the one you have to start every week, you know they’re terrible, but they’re a starter and will get you enough attempts/touches a game that will make them fantasy relevant. Mathews caught a TD pass on his very first play this season, since then, he’s done nothing. He’ll get you the attempts (he’s averaging 15 carries a game) and is a threat out of the backfield, but against Dallas’ #2 run defense, he’s once again going to perform awfully and take up a roster spot in your starting lineup.
Patriots @ Falcons
Best Option
NE- Tom Brady
ATL- Jason Snelling
While the Falcons defense does have a great secondary lead by Osi Umenyiora, they are still giving giving up an average of 296 yards a game (25th in the NFL). While Brady has yet to have a breakout game this season, the pass may be the Pats only hope in keeping up with the Falcons in Atlanta. With Amendola and Gronkowski are both questionable, it really doesn’t matter with Brady. He’s made a stud so far out of Julian Edelman, Kembrell Tompkins and Aaron Dobson have slowly progressed this season, and new pass catching RB Brandon Bolden could make himself known in this game. Expect Tom Brady to do what Tom Brady always does in this game, show up and put up points. The Pats running defense has struggled so far this season, giving up 120 yards on the ground. Atlanta is missing starting RB Steven Jackson, which opens the door for RB tandem Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling. Snelling has been outperforming Rodgers lately and has been receiving less touches than he. Even though he’s receiving less carries than Rodgers, Snelling has been more of a force on passing downs (8 catches 99 yards in 2 games).
Worst Option
NE- Rob Gronkowski
ATL- Julio Jones
There are 3 reasons I can give you as to why Gronk is going to be a bust this week. 1) He may not even play, which due to the late start of this game, can kill you in the TE position (Unless you have Charles Clay, Gonzo, or Graham as your backup). 2) The Falcons defense has not allowed more than 45 yards to a TE in a game. This having already gone up against other TE beasts Jimmy Graham, and security blankets Charles Clay and Jared Cook. 3) If Gronk does return this game, his snap count may be limited in this one, while this may not affect some people’s decision to play Gronk, I think rolling the dice on him this week is too risky of a move. Roddy White still can’t get it together, and the Pats would be crazy if they didn’t Aqib Talib on Julio all game. Talib held Vincent Jackson to just 34 yards last week on 6 targets. I’d imagine close to the same stats for Julio, although I would lower expectations this week. The Pats secondary is very dangerous, I’d expect the Falcons to go on the ground more this week.
Dolphins @ Saints
Best Option
MIA- Ryan Tannehill
NO- Marques Colston
To keep up with the Saints offense (especially in NO) you have to air the ball out, there’s no other option. Lately, Miami has been very sketchy with their running game, giving RB’s Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas a combined 17.5 carries a game (split between the two backs). Tannehill on the other hand is averaging 35 passes a game, I’d expect that number to reach around the 45-50 marker on Monday night. With the attempts being there, and Miami’s WR’s being so even statistics wise, Tannehill has the best chance to produce for the Dolphins. I got nothing on Colston other than the fact he’s due. As a former Colston owner he seems to pull the same crap every year. He’ll break 1000 yards easily, put up 8-10 td’s, but in one game, he’ll put up almost half his TD total, and break over 150 yards receiving. I believe this is the game. No other reason, just feel his outburst is coming on Monday Night.
Worst Option
MIA- Charles Clay
NO- NO Def/ST
I’ll admit I am a hypocrite when it comes to fantasy football. The Saints defense has been a jaw dropping fantasy comity this season, scoring 7,8, and 13 points in standard leagues. Even though those numbers don’t scream fantasy starter, you gotta admit those are amazing fantasy numbers for The Saints Defense. That being said, the Dolphins offense is an interesting matchup. They’re nearly an equivalent to the Falcons offense with a less experienced/talented QB. Ryan Tannehill isn’t a good QB, but he can hurt you. I don’t expect the Saints defense to dominate this game as it has done with others.
The Saints defense has held opposing tight ends to under 36 yards a game this season. Furthermore, they’ve only given up 184 yards through the air a game. With Tony Gonzalez being the only opposing TE to score against the defense, I don’t think you can start Clay with any high expectations this week.
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