Fantasy Football : Start/Sit Options for Week 5

ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT
One to start, One to sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.
Sunday’s Match-ups

Ravens @ Dolphins

Best Option
BAL- Ray Rice
MIA- Lamar Miller

Why the Ravens went away from the run last week is a mystery to me. Their best players (Rice and Pierce) should be involved on almost every play. With a healthy week of practice behind him, Rice should return to form this week against a pretty good Dolphins defense. While Miami is going on a short week, they should see Rice early and often throughout their matchup. I’d expect about 15-17 carries with a handful of catches for Rice. Baltimore’s defense ranks 16th against the run and the pass. Miami is a pass first team, but Baltimore has destroyed QB’s since their week 1 encounter with Denver. So Lamar Miller it is. While his carries aren’t quite…. Well plentiful (19 carries in the past 2 weeks). Miller’s production hasn’t slowed down one bit, gaining 62 yards the last two weeks and averaging 6.5 yards a carry. Baltimore got eaten alive against Buffalo’s running game last week, and could be in line for more of the same against Miller.

Worst Option
BAL- Joe Flacco
MIA-Ryan Tannehill

In the two games Flacco has thrown at last 50 times or more, his QB rating has been 34.4 or lower. That’s terrible. After his 5 interception performance last week against the Bills, I fully expect to see Baltimore go back to their ground and pound game while Flacco returns to his dink and dunk performance to Rice/Pierce while every now and then taking a deep shot to Torrey Smith. Or in other words, around 14-15 fantasy points a week (which may not be so bad considering he’s averaging 12 a week now) While the quantity of production is there for Ryan, he’s managed only the low teens in fantasy points in half his games this year. While the interceptions seem to be a problem for him (He’s thrown an INT the last 2 games), things may not get better against Baltimore’s defense who’s held opposing fantasy QB’s to just 6 points a game.
 
Patriots @ Bengals

Best Option
NE-Tom Brady
CIN- Giovanni Bernard

With Stevan Ridley out and LeGarrette Blount being the starting RB (are we in 2010 again?). Brady will once again lead the offense against a struggling Cincy secondary. There is amazing news though, WR Danny Amendola is expected to return. Amendola lead the Pats in catches in his only performance this season (10 catches in week 1 vs Buffalo), so this not only helps out Brady, but fellow WR’s Kembrell Tompkins and Julian Edelman as well. Getting back to Brady, Cincy’s defense has allowed at least 13 fantasy points a game to the opposing QB. Which wouldn’t be so bad until you hear it was Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Brian Hoyer… Yeah, Brady’s going to have a big day. New England’s weakness on defense is definitely against the run, and Bernard continues to get more and more touches as each game progresses (16 touches last week compared to the Law Firm’s 6). While he remains a force in the passing game as well, Bernard could come through big against the Pats if he were to get a few more carries (he’s averaged 10 the last 2 weeks).
 
Worst Option
NE- LaGarrette Blount
CIN- AJ Green

While the Pats have kept their playcalling about even with the run/pass ratio, Cincy does boast a very strong running defense (11th in the NFL). 3 out of their 4 matchups they’ve held opposing running games under 100 total yards (combined with all Rushers). Blount’s got a big chance to step up and possibly challenge Ridley for the starting role here, but I just don’t think he’ll have a big game against Cincy’s def. Call me crazy on Green, I just think Aqib Talib will have his number on Sunday. The Pats haven’t allowed a WR to score since week one, and Green will definitely challenge that stat come Sunday, but with the lackluster play of Andy Dalton lately, AJ’s going to have a rough time catching passes on Sunday.

Seahawks @ Colts

Best Option
SEA- Marshawn Lynch
INDY- Trent Richardson

Since being traded from Cleveland, Trent Richardson hasn’t done much in terms of production (60 yards last week on 20 carries, while Donald Brown got 65 yards on 3 carries). Blame it on being put on a new team and a new offense, but if Richardson is getting the carries, he’s gotta start producing. A positive note is he’s recorded a TD a game since joining the Colts. A trend I think will continue in this game. In his matchup against the Seahawks, it may be gut check time for T-Rich, he’ll definitely be the goal line back for Indy, but if he doesn’t start performing soon he may start losing carries to (sigh) Donald Brown. This is purely a quantity pick (meaning he’s going to get the ball a lot so his numbers should go up). With the Seahawks o-line hurting, Lynch stepped up his game and produced an amazing 143 yards of total offense with 1 TD effort. It doesn’t seem to matter which defense Lynch is going up against, he’s still going to get his carries and will produce quality numbers. I expect the same this week against the Colts who have looked promising against recent running games, but have yet to see a force like Lynch.

Worst Option
SEA- Russell Wilson
INDY- Reggie Wayne

Indy is allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QB’s so far (I know I’m shocked as well). Wilson hasn’t been wowing his owners either, only having 1 game with multi-touchdowns this season. Every week Wilson seems like boom/bust type of starter, but you gotta look at some facts. He’s never thrown more than 33 times in a game, you can’t rely on his rushing yards because his attempts may/may not be there (he’s rushed 10 times in 2 games), and he’s more TD reliant than getting you points through his passing yards (averaging 196 yards a game). While Andre Johnson proved me wrong last week, getting over 100 receiving yards vs Richard Sherman, I don’t see Andrew Luck’s favorite target doing the same. The Seahawks are allowing under 200 yards passing per game, and with Indy bringing in Trent Richardson and probably wanting to exploit Seattle’s middle of the road front line, I don’t see a lot of targets coming Wayne’s way.

Chiefs @ Titans
 
Best Option
KC- Jamaal Charles
TEN- Chris Johnson

This game should benefit both RB’s stats immensely. While Tennessee’s running defense ranks 11th, Jamaal Charles is a different breed of beast and to be fair, the only legit RB Tennessee has gone up against was Houston’s and their duo lit up the Titans for 172 yards on the ground. Charles is KC’s leading rusher, will get you about 18 attempts a game, has yet to be effected by running QB Alex Smith, and finally is the Chiefs leading receiver. How can you get any better than that? Charles has the possibility of getting 100 rushing/receiving yards in this one. Expect a big day. With QB Jake Locker out for the next several weeks, Tennessee will have to rely on vet Ryan Fitzpatrick to perform against the Chiefs defense. A possible step up in QB play could open some holes for Chris Johnson in the running game. He’s yet to run for 100 yards in a game and is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Good news is, the Chiefs are allowing 5.4 yards a carry. So the potential of having a breakout game is here for the former CJ2K.

Worst Option
KC- Dwayne Bowe
TEN-  Titans Defense

The Titans defense currently ranks 3rd among fantasy defenses, however against the non turnover prone Chiefs, finding points in this one may be difficult. No defense has scored more than 7 fantasy points (standard scoring) vs. KC and Alex Smith, while he did have a 2 turnover outing last week against the lowly Giants, has excelled at being a game manager and careful of his passes. While only being sacked 11 times this season, that may be the best source of points the Titans defense can hope to get you. As surprising as this may sound, Dwayne Bowe is currently 3rd on the Chiefs leaders in receiving yards. This could be because of secondaries taking Bowe out of the game, or it could mean something else. Either way, it doesn’t change the fact that Bowe has yet to crack 60 yards receiving in a single game. He’s quickly becoming one of the biggest fantasy busts at WR this season. The Titans haven’t allowed a TD to a Wideout since week 2, a trend I don’t see continuing against KC, but I don’t believe it’ll be to Bowe.

Panthers @ Cardinals

Best Option
CAR- Greg Olsen
ZONA- Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd

Hear me out, I’m not putting Greg Olsen on the same level as Jimmy Graham, but every time Zona has gone up against a good pass catching TE, they’ve been destroyed by them. Jared Cook in week one. Shutdown CB Patrick Peterson will be on Steve Smith all day, which will leave Greg Olsen as Cam’s best target. Carolina’s defense is very strange when it comes to defending the pass. They don’t struggle often against the #1 WR (only Stevie Johnson has gone off and had a big game against them, but they shut down Victor Cruz). Lately, it’s been a 2 man show in Arizona when it comes to their passing game. Andre Roberts seems to be slowly phasing himself out only getting 2 catches on 6 targets for the past 2 games, while Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are finding themselves more and more targets each week (they’ve combined for 31 targets for the past 2 weeks). Again this is more of a quantity thing, but if Fitz and Floyd continue to get the looks, they’ll continue to produce.

Worst Option
CAR- Steve Smith
ZONA- Rashard Mendenhall

With the exception of Calvin Johnson, Arizona CB Patrick Peterson has held any WR he was covering to an average of 3.5 fantasy points. Enter Steve Smith, he’s not Calvin Johnson, therefore, I wouldn’t start him this week. 93 rushing yards in a game, a week’s worth of rest, and a d-line that’s held Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, and Marshawn Lynch to 12 fantasy points or less? Sign me up. Rashard Mendenhall will get you the bulk of the carries for Arizona, but at a 44 yards per game rate, and 2 straight games of 3 fantasy points (against the Saints and Bucs), I’ll pass on him this week.

Saints @ Bears

Best Option
NO- Saints Def
CHI- Matt Forte

I’m going to go the role of darkhorse here. So no praising of Brees/Graham/Sproles this week. The Saints Defense (5th vs the pass, 22nd vs the run) is a very interesting pick this week. They’ve allowed the fewest QB fantasy points so far, and have 7 picks so far this year. Going up against turnover prone Jay Cutler? Sign me up! I wouldn’t worry too much about the ground game, unless somehow the Bears can slow down the Saints offense, Chicago will be forced to air it out in the 2nd half, which plays to the Saints strength. While Matt Forte should see a hefty dose of carries this week, his production in the first half will ultimately tell the tale of his fantasy value this week. Like I just said, New Orleans offense is so productive, that eventually it forces the opposing offense to air it out against them and play the game their way. Thankfully, Forte still remains a receiving option for the Bears if this were to happen. The Saints do possess a strong front line that can pressure a QB, but surprisingly have trouble stopping the run. Expect Forte to gather another double digit fantasy performance in this game.

Worst Option
NO- Pierre Thomas
CHI- Jay Cutler

Don’t get cute here. Even with Mark Ingram out last week, Thomas found himself getting only a handful of carries and receptions (4 carries 1 yard, 5 receptions 37 yards). With fellow RB Khiry Robinson leading the team in carries last week, it’s clear that Thomas is being used more as a receiving back as opposed to a primary ball carrier. Which hurts his value even more since Darren Sproles is the primary RB/ pass catcher in this offense. Predicting a Pierre Thomas game where he goes off is like trying to pick a single number in roulette, the odds are never good. In 4 games, the Saints defense has held opposing QB’s to a rating of 30 or lower (Tannehill and Palmer were held to a rating of 16 or lower). With Matt Ryan being the only exception to this list, lets be honest here, Jay Cutler is no Matt Ryan. Cutler isn’t showing he’s gotten better either, throwing 6 interceptions in just 4 games, two in which were multi-interception games.

Lions @ Packers

Best Option
DET- Calvin Johnson
GB- Randall Cobb

Both of these secondaries rank near the bottom of the NFL (Det is 22nd, GB is 28th), so the passing attacks for either teams could be the headline in this one. Going by last year’s stats, both Cobb and Johnson killed the opposing defenses last year. Calvin had 15 receptions for 261 yards and 1TD in two games last year, while Cobb nearly matched that with 16 catches for 176 yards and 1 TD. With the Pack coming off a bye, getting their lead RB back and having Jordy Nelson as well as Jermichael Finley healthy, and Calvin having caught 4 td’s in the past 3 weeks, we could see another big performance from both of these great WR’s

Worst Option
DET- Brandon Pettigrew
GB- Aaron Rodgers

I’ll get to Pettigrew in a moment, yeah I’m pickin Rodgers here. No I’m not off my meads, I’m going by history and a belief that Green Bay is going to establish a running game with the returning Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Last season, Rodgers combined stats in his 2 matchups vs Detroit were as followed. 409 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT. Translated that is 11 fantasy points per matchup. I will round that up to 14 since Rodger also rushed for a TD in one of those games, but rushing TDs from pocket passing QB’s are very hard to come by so they can’t be relied on. I know you’re not going to bench Rodgers this week, but don’t be shocked to see him not put up 1st round/top 5 fantasy QB stats this week. As for Pettigrew, previous owners have seen this show before. He shows up for one week, and disappears for the next 3-4 games. Could this time be different? Absolutely, but I’m not buying into the perfect 7 for 7 (for only 54 yards) yet. Until Pettigrew can prove himself consistently that he could become Stafford’s #2 passing option, I’d stay clear.

Jaguars @ Rams

Best Option
JAX- Maurice Jones Drew
STL- St.Louis Defense

Like David Wilson, it’s do or die time for MJD. The Rams rank 30th against the run, he’s the best weapon the Jags have on offense, and if he can’t get anything going for them this week, I don’t think he will at all this season. Jacksonville actually has a decent passing defense, and with St.Louis backfield in flux, I cannot put Daryl Richardson/Pead/Stacey here (although look out for Pead in the upcoming weeks), so I’m takin the easy route and picking the Rams defense. 16.75 is the average points scored for a defense when they go up against the Jags. With Blaine Gabbert still under center, those who own the Rams defense should start them at will here.

Worst Option
JAX- Blaine Gabbert
STL- Daryl Richardson

Once again… It’s Blaine Gabbert. The addition of Justin Blackmon (returning from a suspension) won’t help them much if Gabbert can’t get him the ball. Daryl Richardson on the other hand, may be unfortunately the “unofficial Blaine Gabbert” of Running Backs”. To be fair he is working with a foot injury and has loads of potential (I still see a little bit of Steven Jackson in him and no it’s not the dreads), but after 4 weeks of mediocre performances, the time may come for Richardson to be benched. Rams coach Jeff Fisher has not announced a starting RB this week and will probably look to all 3 backs in this one.

Eagles @ Giants

Best Option
PHI- Michael Vick/LeSean McCoy
NYG- David Wilson

Lets see, the Giants are bad against the pass, and are awful against the run.. Philly loves to run the ball, and have a QB that can take off at any point. Their RB is the leading rusher in the NFL while their QB is tied for 18th…. Shall I go any further? This is it. I’m sayin it loud and clear. To the fantasy football gods above, This is the week David Wilson breaks out and will either (A) have a multi TD game, or (B) gain over 140 yards of total offense (NOT COUNTING KICK/PUNT RETURNS!). Philly is terrible against the run, Da’Rel Scott is no longer a part of the Giants (why I haven’t the slightest clue) and the only thing holding Wilson back this week is probably Brandon Jacobs being the goal line back. This is my blind, leap of faith pick of the week, Wilson, it’s do or die for ya, best of luck.

Worst Option
PHI- Alex Henry
NYG- Brandon Jacobs

I’m putting Henry here only because I think the Eagles defense is going to have a pick 6 or special teams TD at some point in this game. Henry will be playing the Garrett Hartley role in this one, he’ll get you a lot of extra points and pretty much be worthless beyond that. I refuse to put Hakeem Nicks here, and if you’re starting the Giants defense… What the hell’s the matter with you? I know by putting Jacobs here, it’ll probably lead to Wilson getting benched or hurt (knock on wood) or Jacobs rushing for 5 yards but getting 3 TD’s in the process) but I don’t care. Jacobs is going here because I think this is going to be a shootout and any other Giant I can think of is going to be a better option than Jacobs.

Broncos @ Cowboys

Best Option

DEN- Julius Thomas
DAL- Tony Romo

Another week of Denver Whack A WR, and again, I’m going with Julius Thomas as the player to produce this week. Dallas allows the 6th most TE fantasy points, and have better CB’s than LB’s which will be on Thomas. Julius was held out of the end zone last week for the first time this season, a trend I don’t see continuing this week. Another week, another QB to fling it against the Broncos defense. While Dez Bryant is also in consideration for this spot, Romo is coming off a very weak performance against a crummy Chargers secondary (246 yards, 2 TDs). Like with NO, opposing offenses are forced to air it out when it comes to keeping up with the Broncos fast scoring offense, but unlike the Saints who have a solid secondary, Denver’s is awful ranking 30th in the NFL giving up 316 yards through the air a game. If Romo can’t perform this week, I’d start to get worried.

Worst Option
DEN- Broncos Defense
DAL- DeMarco Murray

The Cowboys are averaging 33.5 points at home this season. Tony Romo has not thrown an interception since week one against the Giants. The strength of the Bronco’s defense is the pressure they put on opposing QB’s (11 sacks already) and their great running defense (holding opponents to 74 yards a game). With Dallas built through airing it out (Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and RB DeMarco Murray all have over 20 catches). Denver’s defense could be extremely vulnerable in this one. If Murray is going to produce big numbers in this game, it’s going to be through the passing game. Denver’s front line has shut down everyone in their path, Murray should fare no different. In PPR leagues, Murray may be alright, Ray Rice managed to catch 8 passes in week one, and with the injury of Miles Austin, Murray may be called upon to be Tony Romo’s security blanket.

Chargers @ Raiders

Best Option
SD- Antonio Gates
OAK- Terrelle Pryor

Here’s where I’d normally put SD’s number 1 WR, but funny thing is, their TE is their most productive WR. Old man Antonio Gates has returned ladies and gentlemen and he’s pissed off at all of us who didn’t take him in the first 8 rounds. As the only consistent receiving threat on the Chargers offense (Eddie Royal is fading and Vincent Brown is still just a potential fantasy bench warmer right now), Gates is going up against a Raiders defense which has struggled against the pass. With Darren McFadden out, Marcel Reece questionable, and Rashad Jennings the #1 RB, Pryor returns to a Raider offense where he may have to (GASP!) air it out (I don’t care what anyone says Rashad Jennings is terrible and yes I’m still bitter of his performance last year in Jacksonville). Thankfully, Pryor returns to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL. While he hasn’t thrown more than 30 times a game yet, Pryor has proven he can light up a poor secondary with his arm (threw for 281 vs Denver) as well as being a huge threat with his legs.

Worst Option
SD- Ryan Mathews
OAK- Rashad Jennings

While Oakland is a favorable matchup for Mathews, he continues to struggle in the running game. He’s never reached more than 73 yards rushing and is starting to lose pass duties to fellow back Danny Woodhead. Even though Rashad Jennings is going to be the number 1 option out of the backfield for Oakland, he’s still a bad play this week. Reasons? Okay, He only averaged 3.2 yards a carry last week and playing on a run first offense with a running QB will get you carries, but it will also stack the box against you. This is where McFadden and Jennings differ. McFadden has done okay with this, averaging 4.1 yards a carry with 2 TD’s. As I said before, guilty until proven innocent. I hope I’m wrong on Rashad Jennings I really am, but from what I’ve seen of the guy, I have no doubt he’ll be a huge bust this week.

Texans @ 49ers

Best Option
HOU- Arian Foster/Ben Tate
SF- Frank Gore

Ranking 19th against the run, San Fran’s been very hot/cold when it comes to opposing RB’s. While they did hold Daryl Richardson last week, they’ve struggled when it comes to stopping feature RB’s. Marshawn Lynch, and even Ahmad Bradshaw tore up this defense, and Arian Foster/Ben Tate should be no different. While Foster will receive the bulk of the carries, you cannot continue to ignore Tate’s production (he’s nearly doubled Foster’s yards per carry while only getting half the carries). In my opinion, either RB is a viable play in this game. When Gore gets the ball enough, good things happen for the 49ers and for Fantasy owners. When getting 20 or more carries this season, Gore has averaged 15.5 fantasy points. Houston is on the lower end of teams against the run (avg 113 yards a game) so once again San Fran should go to Gore often in this game.

Worst Option
HOU- Don’t have one
SF- Vernon Davis

I apologize for this, I honestly cannot find an offensive Houston player (that’s fantasy relevant) to put here. Schaub’s struggled against defenses, but has performed well. Andre continues to beat any corner he’s put up against, Daniels is a viable red zone option, same with Hopkins. Houston’s defense could shut down Kaepernick. I got nothing, start any Houston player you have. While Kaepernick’s rushing ability keeps him out of this territory, Vernon Davis’ questionable status and lack of consistency puts him here. After a strong week 1 performance, Davis has struggled this season only gaining 38 yards and 1 TD his following two games. While Houston has only gone up against 1 other TE that match Davis’ talents (Antonio Gates) they’ve still managed to play against the TE strong. With the late game start time effecting owners decision on starting Davis or not, I’d advise against it.

Jets @ Falcons

Best Option
NYJ- Bilal Powell
ATL- Tony Gonzalez

The streak of 100 yard total offense games continues on Monday night. Powell will be the focus of the Jets offense with Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes both out. The Falcons may know it, I know it, hell even the Steelers know it (they play the Jets next week). It’s a sheer volume thing again with Powell, if you get enough touches, then your chances of putting up better stats improve. Total gut feeling, but Gonzo has another big game on Monday night. The Jets corners will be too focused on Roddy and Julio, leaving the inside wide open for Gonzo to exploit. This also marks the first time this season that the Jets are going up against a top tier TE, (they’ve allowed TD’s to Delanie Walker and Scott Chandler the weeks prior) so if those two can score off this defense, just imagine what Gonzo could do?

Worst Option
NYJ- Jeremy Kerley
ATL- Jason Snelling/ Jacquizz Rodgers

Other than Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Kerley is all that’s left of a Jets passing game. Sure there’s Clyde Gates with his 6 catches all year, but I don’t really think he can be considered fantasy worth wild here. Kerley should be seeing a healthy sode of Osi Umenyiora all game and will likely be swallowed by him. With Steven Jackson out again, it’ll be the Snelling/Rodgers combo in the Falcons backfield. Unfortunately for them, The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing RB’s in the NFL. It’s a pick your poison/roulette move to take either one since Atlanta likes to go with the hot hand. If you have to start them by all means, otherwise sit them out of this one.