Have you ever thought of how awesome life would be if we were all granted the luxury of having one do-over for every decision we’ve ever made in our entire lives?
Ever wish you would have taken some time to get to know someone better? Do over. Maybe if you hadn’t been too afraid to try out for the football team? Do over. What if you would’ve had enough courage to ask that one girl you had a crush on throughout your high school career to your senior prom? Do over.
Life is full of these “what if” moments. Unfortunately, often times we only have one chance to get it right and then it may be gone for good.
We all have experienced many opportunities in our lives that I’m sure we’d all love another shot at. And i’m pretty sure if we got that chance again, we’d take it in a heartbeat. Right?
This is the time of the fantasy year that I think the regrets really start to pile up for owners who probably aren’t doing so hot right now. Hell, if you’re like me, you still look back at your draft and ask yourself why you took Larry Fitzgerald over Greg Jennings or Felix Jones over Matt Forte. And I’m towards the top of the standings in each one of my leagues this season.
You can’t help to wonder about what might have been. And you kick yourself in the ass a few times until you get over it and realize life moves on.
Just like it’s pretty safe to assume that if you selected Chris Johnson first overall during your draft in August, you’d like to have that one back. Michael Vick? Peyton Manning?
Well, the season does move on. There will be a tomorrow. And a Week Twelve, Thirteen, Fourteen and so on. That’s just how it works.
Only for those of you who reside in last place, tomorrow will be a little more excruciating for you than it will be for the guy in the cubicle next to you who finds himself in second place.
But now is the time to do something about it. Go make a trade. Go crazy on the waiver wire. Give that girl from high school a call. Do something to fix your past mistakes and ensure that your future can only be better from here.
Trust me. I’m a reliable guy. After all, I am still above .500% on my picks this year.
You’re only doing yourself a disservice at this point if you don’t trust me by now.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of Week Eleven, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 10 Told’ya So (Studs)
Tim Tebow QB DEN
Projected: 213 YDS 3 TD 1 INT, 21 PTS
Actual: 69 YDS 2 TD 0 INT, 15 PTS
DeMarco Murray RB DAL
Projected: 137 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 171 TOTYDS, 6 REC, 1 TD, 22 PTS
Ben Tate RB HOU
Projected: 92 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Actual: 63 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 1 TD, 10 PTS
Week 10 Eating Crow (Studs)
Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
Projected: 7 REC 104 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 2 REC 6 YDS, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Percy Harvin WR MIN
Projected: 6 REC 94 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Actual: 6 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Jermichael Finley TE GB
Projected: 5 REC 87 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 67 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 20/36, 56%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 10 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Studs
Eli Manning QB NYG
Matchup vs Philadelphia
At least one Manning is helping fantasy teams this season — and it’s not the one you would have thought entering the season. Things didn’t start off all that well for Eli, but man, has he bounced back as of late. Not only has Manning been playing well lately, but his latest results against his opponent this week, the Eagles, are encouraging. In his last three games against Philly, Manning has thrown for 10 touchdowns. He always seems to show up against the Eagles. And seeing as a.) this is a big game and b.) the Eagles secondary isn’t everything they had hoped to be, I expect Manning to continue to put up good numbers this week.
Week 11 Forecast: 31/37 324 YDS 2 TD 1 INT, 17 PTS
Honorable mention: Matt Moore, Matthew Stafford
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
Matchup vs St. Louis
Today’s Studs and Duds is probably going to be the most negative I’ve been on the Bills all season from a fantasy prospective. And we start things off with good ol’ Marshawn Lynch. The former Bill cast-off must really feel like salt in the wound Lynch left when he roughed up that pedestrian with his Cadillac. Why? Because we here in Buffalo hate seeing someone who has done us wrong succeed no matter where else they go. And Lynch has been doing just that lately, especially if you own him in fantasy. Last week, “Beast Mode” totalled 20 fantasy points against one of the best run defenses in the entire NFL. This week, he’ll face one of the softest in St. Louis. You do the math.
Week 11 Forecast: 142 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Maurice Morris RB DET
Matchup vs Carolina
Another draft pick I’m beginning to regret this season: drafting Jahvid Best. He started off great, but the concussion issue has left my running back position filled with uncertainty. If it wasn’t for my pick up of DeMarco Murray, I’d be at a total loss. Anyways, Best’s replacement, Maurice Morris, hasn’t put up stellar numbers yet, but he did score a touchdown two weeks ago. The Lions are far from a running team even with Best in the lineup, so don’t expect a ton of carries from Morris. But regardless, he is still the unquestioned No. 1 option and whatever touches do stay on the ground, you know he’ll be the one carrying them. The Panthers run D is the worst in the league when it comes to allowing points to opposing running backs. If you have him, you’re starting Morris this week with confidence.
Week 11 Forecast: 107 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Reggie Bush, Michael Bush
Wes Welker WR NE
Matchup vs Kansas City
Like I’ve said in the past, I tend to stay away from the elite players in this column because that’d be too easy. But I feel as though Welker has taken a slight step back in weeks passed with Brady struggling and all. After all, he hasn’t scored a touchdown in three weeks and had only seven points last week. But things should once again be looking up as he won’t be taking any more trips to Revis Island this season and the Patriots play a Matt Cassel-less Chiefs team this week that they should torch. Even with Rob Gronkowski’s play, Welker is Brady’s go-to guy. And with Brady seemingly out of his funk, Welker too will get back on track this week.
Week 11 Forecast: 9 REC 112 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Brandon Marshall QB MIA
Matchup vs Buffalo
Exhibit No. 2 why most Bills fans will hate me this week. I’m sorry guys, have you seen the Bills secondary this season? At this point, pretty much any receiver who goes up against the Bills enters must-start territory from here on out. And Brandon Marshall isn’t just any receiver, he’s a 6’4″ giant who will draw either the 6’0″ Drayton Florence or the 5’10” Leodis McKelvin (I’m not sure being 6’10” could help McKelvin in this matchup). It’s a match made in heaven for the Dolphins and, incase you haven’t noticed, Matt Moore is actually putting up decent numbers for Miami. Marshall will get his numbers this week. Trust me.
Week 11 Forecast: 8 REC 96 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Honorable mention: Roddy White, Denarius Moore
Ed Dickson TE BAL
Matchup vs Cincinnati
This guy has been all over the place this year. He’s had a few good weeks, but mostly bad. Last week the dude put up a whopping 25 points out of nowhere against Seattle. Coincidentally, the Bengals’ defense is built much like the Seahawks — great up front and a little weak in the secondary. This is why I think Dickson will have his second productive week in a row.
Week 11 Forecast: 6 REC 78 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Honorable mention: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez
Gut Call: Cedric Benson RB CIN vs Baltimore Ravens
So about that whole thing I said before about Marshawn Lynch running all over the Ravens’ defense last week. Yeah. If Marshawn can do it, why can’t Benson? The Ravens’ uncharacteristically poor play has actually been a trend as they’ve allowed on average over 100 yards per game to opposing running backs during their last five games. With A.J. Green a game-time decision, the Bengals’ passing game could hurt. I think Benson could be good for at least a touchdown here.
Week 10 Told’ya So(Duds)
Roy Helu RB WAS
Projected: 65 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 54 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Reggie Wayne WR IND
Projected: 4 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 13 YDS, 0 TD, 3 PTS
Week 10 Eating Crow(Duds)
Tom Brady QB NE
Projected: 267 YDS 1 TD 2 INT, 9 PTS
Actual: 329 YDS 3 TD 0 INT, 24 PTS
Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Projected: 104 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 70 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 2 TDS, 16 PTS
Dez Bryant WR DAL
Projected: 3 REC 41, 0 TD, 4 REC
Actual: 6 REC 74, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Vernon Davis TE SF
Projected: 3 REC 34 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 40 YDS, 1 TD, 10 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 18/36, 50%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 10 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 5-7, Season 60-59.
Duds
Joe Flacco QB BAL
Matchup vs Cincinnati
Flacco has been such a strange case all season for fantasy owners. One game he’ll toss three touchdowns and the next you’re lucky if he’ll get one. As I’ve touched on already, the Bengals have a pretty solid defense. Now, they will be without star cornerback Leon Hall, but I’m not sure this will make much of a difference as Flacco is traditionally a poor performer against the Bengals. During his career, Flacco has eclipsed the 200-yard mark just once against the division rival. I’d be surprised if he threw for anything more than one score.
Week 11 Forecast: 23/31 234 YDS 1 TD 2 INT, 8 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Cam Newton, Sam Bradford
Chris Johnson RB TEN
Matchup vs Atlanta
A 19-fantasy-point performance later and all you people seem to forgive Johnson for his atrocious beginning to the season? Even though Johnson has a few juicy matchups ahead of him to finish off the year, he’ll have to make it through the league’s fourth-ranked run defense in the Falcons this week. Honestly, I’m not very confident in him yet.
Week 11 Forecast: 97 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Frank Gore RB SF
Matchup vs Arizona
Tell me this season hasn’t been Frank Gore at his finest. He rips off a beautiful beginning to the season only to suffer a minor injury that seems to hamper his play for the remainder of the season. That is exactly what is happening to the 49ers back again. In his past two games, Gore has managed just nine points. Yes, the 49ers love to run the ball. But backup Kendall Hunter has proven he can be considered a serious vulture threat, which really hurts Gore’s value. Arizona’s run defense isn’t all that great, but it’s not as bad as most people think, either. I just don’t see him producing much the rest of the year.
Week 11 Forecast: 116 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Ryan Mathews, Brandon Jacobs
Dwayne Bowe WR KC
Matchup vs New England
Bowe is having yet another great under-the-radar season but now that Matt Cassel is down I can’t see him keeping that up. Tyler Palko takes over and while Bowe is still the No. 1, you never know who will emerge as the new QB’s favorite target. This week the Chiefs play the Patriots. While that may seem like a pretty awesome matchup, the Pats’ defense actually played very weel against the Jets last week. I think Bowe will need time to adjust to his new signal caller.
Week 11 Forecast: 5 REC 87 YDS, 0 TD, 8 PTS
A.J. Green WR CIN
Matchup vs Baltimore
I mentioned earlier Green is a game-time decision at this point, which is obviously not good for his fantasy value. He made a pretty awesome grab in the end zone last week to inflate his points, but the injury didn’t come too far after that. Throw in the fact that the Bengals are playing a Ravens’ defense that ranks in the top-five in the league for almost every defensive category doesn’t help his case much, either.
Week 11 Forecast: 4 REC 45, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Mike Williams, DeSean Jackson
Aaron Hernandez TE NE
Matchup vs Kansas City
So no one has been hurt more by Gronkowski’s incredible recent play than Hernandez. What was once a lethal, unpredictable duo, it appears as though Brady has developed an affinity towards Gronk and has forgotten about Hernandez. He hasn’t been bad, and since he’s on the Patriots you never really know when he’s going to go off, but I just think you have better options this week.
Week 11 Forecast: 3 REC 48 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Dustin Keller, Brent Celek
Gut Call: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF vs Miami Dolphins
Great matchup? Absolutely. Or, so it would seem. I think a lot of people are writing off a Dolphins team that has actually managed to play fairly well over the past few weeks. On the flip-side, the same can’t be said of Fitzpatrick’s recent outings. It seems like opposing defenses have finally been able to figure Fitz and Gailey out, and that spells trouble for the Bills as a whole going forward. Contrary to the popular belief, the Fins are pretty solid against the pass. I just get the feeling the Bills wont walk all over the Dolphins like everyone else seems to think. Don’t expect anything huge from Fitz this week.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Like I said, the Dolphins defense is much better than most people give them credit for. With Reggie Bush getting going, they now have a productive running game to control the clock with — something the Bills haven’t been able to do in recent weeks. I already said I don’t like Fitz all that much here, which also means I’m not so high on Stevie Johnson or David Nelson, either. The only one who continues to receive my benefit of the doubt is Fred Jackson. His recent downswing isn’t his fault. That can be attributed to Gailey’s play calling. Obviously you’re using Jackson, but I’m not so sure about anyone else here.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
