I shoud’ve known all my gloating last week would catch up to me sooner or later.
So here I am, back down to earth after a forgettable weekend that served me up a generous portion of crow.
For the first time all year I failed to notch the 50% mark on my picks, which is what we strive for here at Studs and Duds.
Don’t worry. I’ve got a feeling this week will bare much better results.
But hey, how ’bout them Bills?!
Really. How about them Bills?
I’m still in the midst of recovering from what was one of the most awesome weeks in sports since before the summer began.
As a true, blue Bills, Sabres and Yankees fan, there’s nothing in this world I hate more than Boston and their sports teams.
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING feels better than to witness “Titletown” fall to their knees all in a span of just a few days.
The Bills beat the Patriots for the first time in eight years. The look on Tom Brady’s face during the post game was worth another 5-year losing streak to the Pats (sort of).
The Yankees mailed it in gave it all they had in their attempt to hold off the Rays but the boys from Tampa proved to be too much, trumping the Yankees’ efforts to ensure their best bud Red Sox had a spot in this year’s postseason.
Not to mention, in a few weeks Bruins fans will come to the realization that their team isn’t anywhere near as good as they think they are.
Oh well, maybe next yehr, eh Bawston?
Ah, it feels good to be a Yankee fan.
I spent my morning today pre-ordering 28-time World Series Champions gear.
What? Is it too soon for that?
Don’t be ridiculous. I’m a Yankee fan. It’s never too soon to gloat.
Alright, enough baseball talk (although you can bank on more in the near future). Let’s get down to business.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of week three, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 3 Told’ya So (Studs)
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF
Projected: 342 YDS, 3 TD 2 INT, 22 PTS
Actual: 369 YDS, 2 TD 2 INT, 17 PTS
Rob Gronkowski TE NE
Projected: 8 REC 112 YDS, 2 TD, 25 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 109 YDS, 2 TD, 23 PTS
Week 3 Eating Crow (Studs)
Michael Turner RB ATL
Projected: 150 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 20 TOTYDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Jahvid Best RB DET
Projected: 170 TOTYDS, 1 TD, 7 REC, 21 PTS
Actual: 88 TOTYDS, 0 TD, 5 REC, 7 PTS
Steve Smith WR CAR
Projected: 8 REC 134 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Actual: 2 REC 15 YDS, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Mike Sims-Walker WR STL
Projected: 7 REC 111 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 36 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Week 1 Success Rate: 4/6, 66%
Week 2 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Week 3 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Studs
Eli Manning QB NYG
Matchup vs Arizona
Eli Manning has had such a strange career. One week he he’ll be so terrible you’d think the Giants have started Trent Edwards a center only to come out the very next week and force you to double-take like you just saw his brother Peyton in Giants gear. From a fantasy standpoint, Manning hasn’t been much to speak of all season long. But then last week he throws a 4-touchdown shocker to beat the rival Eagles in what was a brilliant performance for the former first overall pick. The forecast this week looks great for Manning to continue that success he had against the Eagles as the Giants square up against the Arizona Cardinals who are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Giants secondary has its flaws as well so this one has the makings of a shootout. In addition to Manning, I’d be starting Nicks, Manningham, Kolb and Fitzgerald without question as well.
Week 4 Forecast: 28/35 342 YDS, 2 TDS 0 INT, 18 PTS
Honorable mention: Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler
Darren Sproles RB NO
Matchup vs Jacksonville
What a pleasant surprise Sproles has been for both Saints fans and fantasy owners alike this season. The again, we can’t really say it was a surprise. The dude’s electric. He’s one of my favorite players to watch in the entire NFL and he’s showing Reggie Bush just how it’s done, which makes it even more awesome (I hate Reggie Bush). A week after the Saints won a crazy shootout against the Texans, they find themselves up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Sproles is a monster in PPR leagues out of the backfield. He’s great No. 2 RB start and a phenomenal flex play this week. I mean c’mon, if Poz has to cover Sproles you could be looking at like 400 total yards from the man.
Week 4 Forecast: 9 CAR 74 YDS, 8 REC 104 YDS, 1 TD, 22 PTS
Tim Hightower RB WAS
Matchup vs St. Louis
It’s taken a little while for the running back guru Mike Shannahan to get Hightower going, but he finally showed some production last week in a very nice game. This week, the Redskins draw the Rams in what looks to be a winnable game. Look, with Rex Grossman as your QB there’s only so many times you can throw the ball, so look for Hightower to at least get the touches. The Rams’ defense is a complete mess right now, so I’m very high on Hightower this week (Ha! That totally wasn’t intentional).
Week 4 Forecast: 18 CAR 107 YDS, 1 TD, 6 REC 67 YDS, 21 PTS
Honorable mention: Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Matthews
Nate Washington WR TEN
Matchup vs Cleveland
Much to the dismay of yours truly, it looks as though Kenny Britt is out for the season (I had him in almost every one of my leagues). To ease the pain a bit, I picked up Nate Washington in his place, and I think we can expect good things out of the underrated receiver for the remainder of this year. Matt Hasselbeck has shown he still has some life left, and the way Chris Johnson has looked the Titans are going to need to find a way to throw the ball. Washington is the go-to guy in a game where Johnson will likely struggle again and the Browns’ secondary isn’t really anything special.
Week 4 Forecast: 6 REC 91 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Johnny Knox WR CHI
Matchup vs Carolina
Johnny Knox has increased his targets each week so far this season and actually caught a touchdown pass that way called back on a penalty last weekend. His role in the Bears’ offense is beginning to come to fruition which means he’ll be Cutler’s go-to man whenever Forte is fails to get open down low. Knox could be good for a few huge plays in what could turn into a shootout. I like the way things look for Knox this week. I’m starting him in my leagues, are you?
Week 4 Forecast: 5 REC 134 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Roddy White, Denarius Moore
Jermaine Gresham TE CIN
Matchup vs Buffalo
The Bills had absolutely no answer for Gronkowski in the first half last weekend as he made it look easy reeling in a few wide open passes for two scores. The Bills secondary is banged up and has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. Not to mention the Bengals could very easily be playing from behind the entire game (at least let’s hope) and a good tight end like Gresham is a rookie quarterback’s best friend when they need to complete a few confidence boosters. Watch out for A.J. Green here, too.
Week 4 Forecast: 9 REC 97 YDS, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Honorable mention: Vernon Davis, Scott Chandler
Week 3 Told’ya So(Duds)
Tony Romo QB STL
Projected: 217 YDS, 1 TD 1 INT, 9 PTS
Actual: 255 YDS, 0 TD 1 INT, 4 PTS
Mike Tolbert RB SD
Projected: 33 TOTYDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Actual: 43 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Dexter McCluster RB KC
Projected: 79 TOTYDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 62 TOTYDS, 5 REC, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Mike Williams WR TB
Projected: 3 REC 49 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 5 rec 43 yds, 0 td, 6 pts
Week 3 Eating Crow(Duds)
Plaxico Burress WR NYJ
Projected: 4 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 55 YDS, 1 TD, 11 PTS
Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
Projected: 2 REC 31 YDS, 0 TD, 3 PTS
Actual: 11 REC 112 YDS, 0 TD, 15 PTS
Week 1 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 2 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 3 Success Rate: 4/6, 66%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 6-6, Season 21-15.
Duds
Josh Freeman QB TB
Matchup vs Indianapolis
Freeman and what seems to be half of the Bucs’ roster has hit a sophomore slump this year big time. It’s almost sad given all the promise they showed last year. That’s when they were fun to watch. Now, Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to muster any sort of running game and Mike Williams is double-covered every time Freeman drops back to pass. The matchup looks good on paper, but the Colts actually have a pretty solid secondary. I think this will be a low scoring, brutal game. So stay away from all Bucs and Colts this week.
Week 4 Forecast: 23/38 247 YDS 1 TD 3 INT, 7 PTS
Honorable mentions: Matt Schaub, Sam Bradford
Michael Turner RB ATL
Matchup vs Seattle
The Burner certainly burned me last week. I thought for sure he was going to go off and have a huge game like he typically does against the Bucs but he came away with just 20 yards. This week’s matchup against the Seahawks looks like a juicy one yet again, but don’t be fooled. Seattle’s run defense is actually one of the best in the league at home, allowing just two 100-yard rushers in their past 20 games at Qwest Field. Don’t rely on Turner again this week if you have better options as the Falcons will be throwing.
Week 4 Forecast: 23 CAR 74 YDS, 2 REC 11 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Arian Foster RB HOU
Matchup vs Pittsburgh
I’ve seen a lot of excitement for the return of Foster this week but why? He draws the Steelers in his first matchup back. I know Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been up to par so far this year but they’re not as bad as everyone is hoping. Besides, there’s no way Fotser is 100% right now and he very well could be forced to split carries here.
Week 4 Forecast: 19 CAR 49 YDS, 4 REC 23 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Honorable mentions: LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells
Brandon Marshall WR MIA
Matchup vs San Diego
Marshall has put up some decent numbers this season but has somehow only found the endzone once. This week the winless Dolphins (doesn’t that have an awesome ring to it?) squares off against a Chargers’ defense that is still one of the tops in the league. Marshall may get the catches, but it’s like pulling teeth expecting a touchdown from this guy. If you have better options, roll with them.
Week 4 Forecast: 4 REC 62 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Miles Austin WR DAL
Matchup vs Detroit
Miles Austin went off a few weeks ago but missed last week with an injury. The entire Cowboys’ offense is hurting right now and Tony Romo is definitely not at 100%. Detroit is beginning to come into their own, especially with that scary front seven. If everyone plays, Austin may see a healthy amount of targets, especially if Dez Bryant missed the game. Still, it’s too hard to trust anyone on this offense until Romo shows he’s feeling better.
Week 4 Forecast: 5 REC 71 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Honorable mentions: Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin
Fred Davis TE WAS
Matchup vs St. Louis
Well, count me in as one of the saps who picked up Davis last week hoping he’d turn into a gem. I dropped the incredibly inconsistent Brandon Pettigrew in favor of the Redskin and where did it get me? While Pettigrew was busy piling up the catches, Davis failed to even look remotely close to being relevant. Now that Chris Cooley is back and apparently healthy it’s really hard for me to expect much from Davis the rest of the year on a consistent basis. Sp what did I do? Dropped Davis in order to re-acquire Pettigrew this week. Fantasy football is a funny thing, ain’t it?
Week 4 Forecast: 2 REC 21 YDS, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Honorable mentions: Dallas Clark, Dustin Keller
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Week 4 vs Cinncinnatti
The Bills have turned into one of the league’s premier destinations for fantasy points and it’s freaking awesome, man. I’ve been playing fantasy football since I was 10 years old and every year I’d go in saying my draft strategy is to stay far, far away from any Bills at all costs. This is the first year I’m kicking myself for doing so. Of course, as long as the Bills are winning (as well as my fantasy teams), it makes me pretty happy, so I digress. There’s no reason why Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson and Scott Chandler shouldn’t be in your starting lineups this week. Then again, we also said at the end of August there’s no reason why the Red Sox wouldn’t make the playoffs, and look where that got them? Ouch. Okay, okay, now I’m done. The Bengals’ defense is overrated and as long as Fitz can remember how to play when not coming from behind, then all should be good picks to put up some points this week. I like Fred Jackson here especially. He looks like a man on a mission this year and I think he’ll be the key to the game for the Bills.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
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