As playoffs are set to get under way in the majority of leagues around the fantasy world this weekend, frustration for many owners on the outside looking in almost certainly peaked during last week’s slate of games.
In fact, this year appeared to be an especially maddening one, with an abundance of high picks like Michael Vick and Chris Johnson never quite filling out their projections, resulting in hundreds, if not thousands of broken computer screens throughout the season.
Ironically, Week Thirteen seemed to symbolize the rage that collectively accumulated throughout the entire season as fantasy zombies like Shonn Greene and Pierre Garcon were among the leaders in points scored while the heavily-relied-upon studs Calvin Johnson and Frank Gore failed to produce in marquee matchups, devastating their respective owners.
I feel your frustration.
That is why this week, I decided I would ignore the many negatives of the 2011 fantasy season and try to ease your pain a bit by reminiscing on some of the players that have played especially crucial roles to their owner’s successes.
I call them my Fantasy Saviors.
Yahoo!’s fantasy leagues offers a pretty cool feature called ‘MVPs’, which ranks players relative to their owner’s success by displaying the percentage of Yahoo!’s Top-500 teams in which that player appears on.
Typically, this list displays many different guys who are now most commonly considered as the bang-for-your-buck types or waiver-wire gold types.
If you’re one of the lucky teams who finds yourself set to begin your playoff run this week, it is increasingly likely that you one, if not multiple players who appear on this list. After all, finding gold in places where others see crap is often the difference between the league champion and the 1-12 bum who quit on his team after four weeks.
So, before we get to the Studs and Duds of the week, it is with my pleasure that I bring to you the 2011 All-Fantasy Saviors Team.
Aaron Rodgers QB GB (44.4% Top-500 ownership): Perhaps the most foreseeable of the players in this, it is no surprise that after the season Rodgers has been having almost half of the must successful fantasy teams feature him as their signal caller. Not to toot my own horn, but I own Rodgers in three out of the four leagues I play in. I’ve been super high on him since day one, taking him first overall twice, and fourth overall in the third league. I mean, 37 touchdowns and 310 fantasy points later, the stats pretty much speak for themselves. I’m not saying I’m a genius or anything, but I’m just saying, you know, I’m pretty freakin’ awesome.
LeSean McCoy RB PHI (51.2%): In my mind, McCoy could be giving Rodgers a run for his money for NFL MVP this season had the Eagles actually have been good, you know, like they said they’d be. Everyone knew McCoy had talent as he was selected in the first round in nearly every league, but he’s been one of the few first-round backs who have maximized their value this season. I think that especially since good running backs are often so unpredictable on draft day, hitting on McCoy has almost certianly put your RB position head and shoulders above every other team in your league, making it less surprising he’s owned in more than half of Yahoo!’s best teams.
DeMarco Murray RB DAL (22.6%): I’m not sure who is more grateful for the emergence of Murray this season — fantasy owners or fans of the Dallas Cowboys. I am one of these proud owners of Murray and let me just say that if it weren’t for me taking a flier on him five weeks ago, my running back situation would be abysmal. Granted, he’s coming off a bad week and I myself am counting on him to find his groove again this week, but he’s definitely proven his critics wrong this season and has been the closest thing to being this season’s Arian Foster.
Victor Cruz WR NYG (24.6%): Initially, I was pretty shocked to see Cruz towards the top of this list. But I shouldn’t have been, because the man’s been nothing short of a fantasy miracle this season, coming out of nowhere to become one of the most consistent receivers in the league. He formed an instant chemistry with Eli Manning, causing many owners to snatch him off waivers early on, and now if you have him I’m sure you might say that’s the best move you’ve made all season. This year’s version of Brandon Lloyd is making a lot of Giants fans forget about Steve Smith.
Wes Welker WR NE (53.0%): Tell me, if you were one of those who passed Welker up on draft day, how stupid do you feel right now? Like Rodgers, I am a proud owner of Welker in three of my leagues, having drafted him no earlier than the seventh round in each. Obviously Welker has been many owners’ claim to fame this season, already totalling over 100 catches on the season. To watch him play with Brady each week really makes you wonder how the hell the dude slipped so far in almost every draft.
Jimmy Graham TE NO (31.4%): In fantasy, having a great tight end on your roster makes things so much easier on a week-to-week basis. I’ve found that out first-hand this season after deciding to wait on the position in drafts this year, I’ve constantly fiddled with trying to find a consistent producer each week. Graham has done nothing short of solidifying himself as a top-tier, elite tight end this season, flying past guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. I mean, the man will easily break the 100-reception mark on the season and, if you play in a PPR league, you know how awesome that is to get that production from a tight end.
Tim Tebow QB DEN (not ranked): Of course, how could I write about fantasy saviors without talking about Tim Tebow! Now, he’s different from the other six in regards to the fact he is not ranked within that Yahoo! Top-500 list, but I had to make an exception seeing as I can’t imagine you aren’t reaping the rewards of Tebow Mania by now if you have him. To me, it’s surprising he’s not featured on more winning rosters, because if you had a quarterback issue early in the season, it’s likely Tebow has solved that for you by now. Since taking over in Week Five here are Tebow’s points week by week: 15, 20, 11, 21, 15, 12, 12, 17. Having a quarterback who consistently hits the double-digit plateau on a week-to-week basis is crucial in fantasy, so this week at least we can surely say Tebow is in fact the Christ of all Saviors.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs and Duds of Week Fourteen, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 13 Told’ya So (Studs)
Tim Tebow QB DEN
Projected: 157 YDS, 3 TD 1 INT, 20 PTS
Actual: 202 YDS, 2 TD 0 INT, 17 PTS
Victor Cruz WR NYG
Projected: 5 REC 101 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 119 YDS, 0 TD, 11 PTS
Fred Davis TE WAS
Projected: 5 REC 78 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 6 REC 99 YDS, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Week 13 Eating Crow (Studs)
Matt Forte RB CHI
Projected: 134 TOTYDS, 5 REC, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Actual: 12 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 0 TD, 0 PTS
LaGarrette Blount RB TB
Projected: 123 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 19 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 0 TD, 1 PT
Jordy Nelson WR GB
Projected: 4 REC 116 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 94 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 20/36, 56%
Week 7-13 Success Rate (excluding Week 12): 14/36, 39%
Week 13 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Studs
Carson Palmer QB OAK
Matchup vs Green Bay
I’m finally giving in to my urge to resist Palmer in the column. After all, he’s earned it. After joining the Raiders and looking like absolute garbage in his first game, Palmer has put up double-digit totals in all but one week. This week, the Raiders face a Green Bay team giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks the last five weeks. In addition, Darren McFadden will again be out of the Raiders lineup so, in other words, Palmer will be required to throw 40+ times if Oakland fishes to keep up with Rodgers. It also doesn’t hurt that Palmer will likley get his top recievers back this week.
Week 14 Forecast: 34/45 316 YDS, 3 TD 2 INT, 22 PTS
Honorable mention: Matt Moore, Eli Manning
Ryan Mathews RB SD
Matchup vs Buffalo
To say Mathews has been hugely inconsistent all season long would be an understatement, but he’s posted double-digits in two straight weeks and he looked really good last week on Monday Night Football. Not to mention, the Chargers aren’t exactly up against the league’s most daunting run defense, as our own beloved Bills have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs over their last five games. The only way I don’t see Mathews earning a bunch of points is if he gets injured, but you can never bank on that.
Week 14 Forecast: 124 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
Matchup vs St. Louis
Over the past few weeks, Lynch has shown every what Beast Mode is all about — something we never got to see here while he was in Buffalo. Coming into this week’s matchup against the Rams, Lynch has double-digit points in each of his past five games, earning at least 13 points in each game. Much like the Bills, I’m not sure the Rams’ run defense could stop my grandmother right now. And while all Lynch ran over during his time in Buffalo was fat pedestrians, he’s certainly primed to run over multiple Ram linebackers this week with the team giving up the seventh-most points to running backs this season.
Week 14 Forecast: 131 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew
Santana Moss WR WAS
Matchup vs New England
Fresh off an injury that kept Moss out of a bunch of games this season for Washington, he returned last week and looked relatively competent, catching five passes. There’s really no doubt that when healthy, Moss is the Redskins’ No. 1 receiver and while Rex Grossman is no Aaron Rodgers, he’s played fairly way of late. After watching the Patriots pass defense last week, I see now reason while either one of these guys wont continue those trends this week. If you’re a Pats fan, first, what the hell are you doing on a Buffalo Bills website? And second, you’ve got to be pretty concerned with the way your secondary that has given up the most fantasy points to wide outs and allows receivers to jolt right past them. No concern here as, even though they’ll lose, Grossman will throw for a few scores and I’m willing to bet Moss is the recipient of one or two of those, especially with Fred Davis out.
Week 14 Forecast: 7 REC 97 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Percy Harvin WR MIN
Matchup vs Detroit
Much of this call hinges on whether or not Christian Ponder plays or not. Since Ponder took over in Week Seven, Harvin lowest output has been nine points. Not too shabby. In a PPR league he’s increasingly valuable. Not many guys can return kicks back for touchdowns and be an effective possession/slot receiver like Harvin can. He’s without a doubt the Vikings’ most important offensive player so you can continue to expect production from this guy as long as Minnestoa’s secondary continues to allow quarterbacks to have their way. Although, like I said, if Ponder doesn’t play I think that significantly hurts Harvin’s value.
Week 14 Forecast: 8 REC 103 YDS, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Honorable mention: Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree
Anthony Fasano TE MIA
Matchup vs Philadelphia
I’ve been pumping up Fasano like you wouldn’t believe the past few weeks and it hasn’t really paid off for me — yet. I figured maybe if I just keep talking about him here, sooner or later he’ll come through. Well, if he’s going to do that, this would be the week to do it against a Philly defense that has allowed the most points to opposing tight ends this season. I hate everything about Philadelphia right now. Matt Moore has strangely looked really sharp this season, and so if he gets into a grove against the Eagles, Fasano could be a main beneficiary.
Week 14 Forecast: 5 REC 78 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Honorable mention: Jason Witten, Antonio Gates
Gut Call: Jake Ballard TE NYG vs Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ballard has been a strange guy this season. A popular breakout pick at the tight end position this year, Ballard will go into stretches where he does absolutely nothing, then all of a sudden explodes and has a great game. Last week he only had four points, but Eli Manning has been targeting him a lot lately and, if you’re considering this right now, it’s likely you don’t have a better option on your roster right now. I think Ballard could be in line for one of those explosive weeks against a Cowboys team that has given up the ninth-most points to opposing tight ends this season. I also think Eli Manning and the Giants demolish the Cowboys this week, but hey, that’s just me.
Week 13 Told’ya So (Duds)
Steven Jackson RB STL
Projected: 63 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 30 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Vernon Davis TE SF
Projected: 3 REC 37 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 5 REC 32 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Week 13 Eating Crow (Duds)
Phillip Rivers QB SD
Projected: 246 YDS, 1 TD 3 INT, 8 PTS
Actual: 294 YDS, 3 TD 0 INT, 23 PTS
Toby Gerhart RB MIN
Projected: 76 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 133 TOTYDS, 8 REC, 0 TD, 15 PTS
Vincent Jackson WR SD
Projected: 5 REC 57 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 72 YDS, 1 TD, 12 PTS
Dez Bryant WR DAL
Projected: 3 REC 54 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Actual: 8 REC 86 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 18/36, 50%
Week 7-13 Success Rate (exlcuding Week 12): 19/36, 53%
Week 13 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 5-7, Season 71-72.
Duds
Michael Vick QB PHI
Matchup vs Miami
I’m probably playing with fire picking against Vick, who has likely been prepping for the Dolphins for two weeks now, but if you’re reading this, you’re obviously in the playoffs, so, if you managed to survive picking Vick in your draft, it may not be in your best interest to trust your playoff run with his health. Now, I don’t own Vick at all, but if it were me deciding between him and say, Carson Palmer, I’d go with Palmer here. It may not be wise to welcome the unstable Vick back into your lineup this week at a time when stability in your lineup is most vital.
Week 14 Forecast: 23/32 243 YDS, 1 TD 3 INT, 43 RUSH, 9 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Tony Romo, Rex Grossman
Beanie Wells RB ARI
Matchup vs San Francisco
I think I’m going to start reserving one running back spot in the Duds section every week for whoever draws the 49ers defense. This week’s victim? Beanie Wells. San Francisco’s defense — particularly on the ground — has been spectacular this season. Last week I said they hadn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season, and that trend continues into this week after they held Steven Jackson to virtually nothing. Wells has shown some great flashes this year, but he’s also laid an egg on a few occasions. I just don’t see how you can go with Wells against the 49ers this week.
Week 14 Forecast: 52 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
C.J. Spiller RB BUF
Matchup vs San Diego
C’mon guys, did you really think Spiller is going to produce every week? Last week’s effort was as fluky as they come. If he’s not in the open field, he’s not gaining yards. It’s as simple as that. San Diego’s linebackers are actually pretty talented, but it’s not even the matchup I’m basing this on. Hey, if you want to entrust your fantasy playoff hopes with Bills player, than you’re only doing it to yourself.
Week 14 Forecast: 62 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Cedric Benson, Frank Gore
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
Matchup vs San Francisco
What a headache Fitzgerald has been for me this year. While I’ve had a bunch of success from this year’s drafts, I also had a few huge busts and none have been bigger than Fitzgerald. If you watch him play with Kevin Kolb, the two just simply have no chemistry together. He’s not getting the targets and his receptions are way, way down from previous years. Last week’s effort against Dallas was the last straw for me, and I already have him riding the pine for this week. San Francisco will throttle the Cardinals and while it would be just my luck Fitzgerald has a three-touchdown performance, I just don’t see that happening.
Week 14 Forecast: 3 REC 49 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Brandon Lloyd WR STL
Matchup vs Seattle
In the season’s most epic Monday Night battle, Seattle and St. Louis will square off in a can’t-miss, prime-time battle. What a joke. While the TV ratings I’m sure will soar, I’m fairly certain the Rams’ Brandon Lloyd will not. Before last week he was coming off three-straight double-digit point efforts but after just two points last week I think it’s safe to expect more of the same this week. Seattle is the home team, and their defense is actually pretty great at home.
Week 14 Forecast: 4 REC 54 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin
Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
Matchup vs Carolina
In a year in which we’ve seen a youth movement take over at the tight end position, it’s been encouraging to see one of the game’s all-time greats still getting it done. However, despite his production of late, Gonzalez has struggled in multiple games this year and one of them was when the Falcons players the Panthers for the first time, when Gonzalez had just four points. I expect Atlanta to run the ball much more than they have been, plus Julio Jones is set to return to the lineup.
Week 14 Forecast: 4 REC 34 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Kellen Winslow, Greg Olsen
Gut Call: Joe Flacco QB BAL vs Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco will be an interesting guy this week. Many people may be quick to look at the matchup and automatically assume Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game will cruise here, but I’m not all that sure. In fact, I think Ray Rice has a huge day much like he did last week, and Flacco hasn’t really done much to speak of lately or, at least not enough to trust him. While it’s not very good, Indy’s pass defense is still better than its run defense. So I just don’t see Flacco tossing anything more than a single touchdown this week.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Bills vs San Diego Chargers
This game should be interesting as it features the two biggest collapses in the NFL this season. To think that through five weeks both of theses teams were 4-1 is incredible given the way they’ve played lately. While the Chargers seem to be failing to meet expectations yet again, their team is certainly better than the Bills right now. I do however like Ryan Fitzpatrick in this matchup. I think the Bills will be playing catchup for the majority of the game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fitz for two, maybe even three touchdowns this week, which also means Stevie Johnson could be productive. One guy who ahs surprised me the past few games is Brad Smith, who may be worth a look in PPR leagues. If he has another good week this week I may just pick him up myself. As for the rest of the team, I already advised you not to start Spiller, so I can’t stress that enough, and Scott Chandler will likely miss the game.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
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