As you all may or may not know by now, I am a college student living right here in Buffalo.
Something I dread each semester is attending advisement for my classes.
As per the communication department at Buffalo State College, each major is required to meet with their advisor at the minimum of once per semester to discuss future classes you must take and ensure you remain on track for graduation.
I hate this not because I’m an arrogant college student, but because each time I go I feel as though I’m simply wasting my time.
I’m fine with the concept. I understand advisement is supposed to assist you through school and help you make the most out of your education on the way to your career afterwards, but Buff State has it all screwed up, because I’m not the only one who feels this way.
See, I’m not particularly fond of my advisor. I’m a journalism major and he’s, well, anything but a journalist. When asking for advice on potential classes or various things I should do to increase my chances of actually landing a job when I graduate, he often fails to give much, if any, insight into what the best route may be.
It’s like you asking a geologist whether or not you should start Tim Tebow over Phillip Rivers this weekend.
Every time I leave his office I feel as though I have accomplished nothing and am forced to blindly apply for classes that I’m unsure will actually benefit me when it’s all said and done.
Assuming I’m right when I say the demographic of those of you who read this column on a week to week basis tends to be a little older, you probably don’t have much interest in a college kid’s advisement issues. So then why bother telling you about my advisement issues?
It got me thinking that, in a sense, if you read this column often, you may see me as your advisor in a strange sort of way.
If you tune in to Buffalo Wins for my studs and duds each week, you read because you’re curious about what someone else thinks of a few players who may be on your roster for the upcoming week. Maybe you’re stuck in a dilemma on who to start, so you seek the advise of a third party.
I’m not an expert by any means, but I’ve been playing fantasy sports ever since I was old enough to know what it was. My father has been in a league with the same group of guys for almost 25 years.
All I can say is that it is my hope that I do a much better job in assisting you with your fantasy teams than my advisor does with the education I pay thousands of dollars for.
With that said, I have absolutely no idea the exact number of you who actually make your way over the Buffalo Wins each week for this column, and it’s my hope that all of you remain reading on a consistent basis right down to the end of this season.
Anyways, I’d like to thank you all for putting up with me for what is now thirteen weeks.
With the holiday last week, I was unable to throw this post together, so keep in mind that there wasn’t a post for Week Twelve while reading this week’s installment.
Enough of all this sappy talk, we only have a few weeks left to go! Let’s take a look at what we’ve got this week.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs and Duds of Week Thirteen, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 11 Told’ya So (Studs)
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
Projected: 142 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 89 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 TD, 13 PTS
Week 11 Eating Crow (Studs)
Eli Manning QB NYG
Projected: 324 YDS, 2 TD 1 INT, 17 PTS
Actual: 264 YDS, 1 TD 1 INT, 9 PTS
Maurice Morris RB DET
Projected: 107 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Actual: 33 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Wes Welker WR NE
Projected: 9 REC 112 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Actual: 2 REC 23 YDS, 0 TD, 3 PTS
Brandon Marshall WR MIA
Projected: 8 REC 96 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 1 REC 9 YDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Ed Dickson TE BAL
Projected: 6 REC 78 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Actual: 2 REC 21 YDS, 0 TD, 3 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 20/36, 56%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 10 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 11 Success Rate: 1/6, 16%
Studs
Tim Tebow QB DEN
Matchup vs Minnesota
It’s hard to not buy into Tebow Mania right now. The man clearly has god on his side because no one, and I mean no one, survives in the NFL with a completion percentage under 50. But Tebow has. And the Broncos are and incredible 5-1 since Tebow took over under center. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. That’s what I thought. Denver is slowly looking like a potential Wild Card dark horse, and with their matchup against Minnesota this week, things are looking good for Tebow and Co. Since Tebow took over for Orton six weeks ago, he has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game. Only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees can say the same over that span. And to make things even better, the Vikings’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in their last five weeks. Yup. Jesus is Tebow’s homeboy.
Week 13 Forecast: 11/27, 156 YDS, 3 TD (1 RUSH) 1 INT, 20 PTS
Honorable mention: Matt Stafford, Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Forte RB CHI
Matchup vs Kansas City
Matt Forte has taken a step back since his hot start to the season, but he’s still putting up respectable numbers in PPR leagues, which is expected. I think losing Jay Cutler could either help or hurt Forte’s value in the long run as the Bears will either give him the ball more or their offense as a whole will struggle under Hanie. One week through, it seems they’ll be alright. But we’ll see. This week, Forte faces a Chiefs defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. I’m expecting Hanie to struggle in this one as Kansas City’s cornerbacks are actually really good (if you don’t believe me, just look at what they did to Welker a few weeks back), likely increasing the amount of times he either checks down to Forte or the Bears just hand it off to their running back all together.
Week 13 Forecast: 134 TOTYDS, 5 REC, 1 TD, 19 PTS
LaGarrette Blount RB TB
Matchup vs Carolina
Don’t look now, but it finally looks as though Blount may start living up to preseason expectations thirteen weeks into the season. He’s burned a lot of fantasy teams this year, but ironically if you have him, with the cake schedule Tampa has over the final weeks he may turn out to be a catalyst in winning a league title for owners who have put up with him all season. This week it doesn’t get much easier as Blount draws the league’s worst run defense that have given up by far the most fantasy points to opposing backs this year. With his increase in production and Josh Freeman presumably out of action, I see no reason Blount doesn’t keep the numbers up.
Week 13 Forecast: 123 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Honorable mention: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Chris Johnson
Victor Cruz WR NYG
Matchup vs Green Bay
Victor Cruz just keeps on chugging along. Who would’ve thought? I remember having ample opportunity back in the early weeks to place a claim on Cruz off of waivers, but repeatedly passed under the assumption he could never keep up the good numbers. I was wrong, and I regret it now after seeing how great he clicks with Manning. Cruz has actually been one of the most consistent wide receivers this season and has posted at least 10 points during every game since he had only eight against the Bills, of all teams, way back in Week Six. The Packers allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, and I expect this game to be a battle of offenses, so you’re starting Cruz.
Week 13 Forecast: 5 REC 101 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Jordy Nelson WR GB
Matchup vs New York Giants
We’ll stay in the same game for my other stud at wide receiver this week. As I said, this game should be a shootout. The Giants can’t cover, the Packers can’t, so needless to say, it’s a safe bet to start any one of the receivers on either team this week. I like Nelson simply because he was on a roll for a while there before only grabbing a few catches last week. This season, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so, other than Greg Jennings, there’s no Packer I like better this week to catch a touchdown or two from Rodgers.
Week 13 Forecast: 4 REC 116 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Honorable mention: Steve Smith (CAR), Mike Wallace
Fred Davis TE WAS
Matchup vs New York Jets
Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis. What do all these guys have in common? They all trail Fred Davis in fantasy points this season. How’s that for a stat? It turns out Rex Grossman is really fond of tight ends, and apparently he enjoys throwing to them on the field, too. For every game Grossman has started this season, Davis has at least five catches in each game, and he faces the Jets this week who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. I mean, come on, they allowed six receptions to Scott Chandler, of all people, last week. Keep rolling with Davis if you have him, especially with Grossman back under center.
Week 13 Forecast: 5 REC 78 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Honorable mention: Jermichael Finley, Anthony Fasano
Gut Call: Andy Dalton QB CIN vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Conventional wisdom would say stay far, far away from starting quarterbacks who oppose the Steelers, especially in a divisional game with playoff implications such as this one. After all, Andy Dalton is still just a rookie. But I’m anything but a conventional guy, and Dalton has posted 10 points in eight consecutive weeks this season including an earlier matchup against those same Steelers. I’m not saying he’s going to put up huge numbers, because he hasn’t done that this year. But he’s proven he’s a lock for at least double-digits, and if the other quarterback on your roster is say, Phillip Rivers, I’m starting Dalton this week, especially since your matchup this week likely has playoff implications of its own. Not to mention A.J. Green will be back, and they’ve been the best QB-WR combo in fantasy this season next to Brady/Welker and Stafford/Megatron.
Week 11 Told’ya So (Duds)
Chris Johnson RB TEN
Projected: 97 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Actual: 28 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 3 PTS
Frank Gore RB SF
Projected: 116 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 94 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Dwayne Bowe WR KC
Projected: 5 REC 87 YDS, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 87 YDS, 0 TD, 10 PTS
A.J. Green WR CIN
Projected: 4 REC 45 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Actual: Did not play
Aaron Hernandez TE NE
Projected: 3 REC 48 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 44 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Week 11 Eating Crow (Duds)
Joe Flacco QB BAL
Projected: 234 YDS, 1 TD 2 INT, 8 PTS
Actual: 270 YDS, 2 TD 1 INT, 16 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 18/36, 50%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 10 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 11 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 6-6, Season 66-65.
Duds
Phillip Rivers QB SD
Matchup vs Jacksonville
What a mess the Chargers have been this season, eh? A 4-1 start, and now they find themselves in third place in the always strange AFC West. Now, it wouldn’t be unlike the Chargers to come out and pound the Jags this week, especially since Jacksonville just fired Del Rio and, well, that’s just how quirky the Chargers are. Not to mention, if they lose, Norv Turner will almost certainly be out of a job (A.J. Smith needs to swallow his damn pride and fire the dude already. We get it, you hated Schottenheimer, but get over it!). It truly amazes me knowing all the phenomenal teams Turner has had over the years and the sub-par results that have been the product of those teams (the Chargers may be a more dysfunctional team than the Bills over the last decade…. nah.). Anyway, what were we talking about again? Oh yeah, Phillip Rivers. Don’t start him. He’ll ruin your playoff hopes.
Week 13 Forecast: 21/34 246 YDS, 1 TD 3 INT, 8 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez
Steven Jackson RB STL
Matchup vs San Francisco
It’s not very often I’ll tell you to bench a fantasy stud. And Jackson has been just that this season, a stud; one of the only bright spots on an otherwise terrible Rams team. But this week, he’s forced into a matchup against the brick wall that is the 49ers run defense. Allow me to let you in on a little secret, the 49ers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown thus far this entire season. Now, I’m terrible at math, but this is a very simple equation: Fantasy stud + 49ers defense = fantasy dud.
Week 13 Forecast: 63 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Toby Gerhart RB MIN
Matchup vs Denver
With Adrian Peterson missing another week due to his high-ankle sprain, Gerhart will make his second consecutive start this week. He found the endzone last week and put up 10 points, but after watching the way he ran the ball, his output was incredibly fluky. The Broncos defense has been so good lately that honestly, I think even Peterson would find himself in the duds section this week if he were playing. That’s how much I like Denver’s defense and hate the Vikings’ offensive line. Just do yourself a favor and don’t get cute this week by starting Gerhart unless you find yourself in desperation mode.
Week 13 Forecast: 76 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Michael Bush, C.J. Spiller
Vincent Jackson WR SD
Matchup vs Jacksonville
See Rivers, Phillip. This pick pretty much goes hand in hand with Rivers’ struggles, and the Jaguars defense is actually ranked 27th against the pass this season. Again, the Jaguars could be an entirely different team without Del Rio and crap the bed, allowing 40 points to the Chargers this week, but I think the Bills have a better chance of making the playoffs this year. Hahahaha.
Week 13 Forecast: 5 REC 57 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Dez Bryant WR DAL
Matchup vs Arizona
There’s just something about Dez Bryant that just really irks me, and I don’t know what it is. Maybe it’s his diva-esque personality, but after backing up Stevie this past week, that would make me hypocritical. It turns out I actually like that in a receiver so, I’m baffled. Anyway, it was confirmed on Friday that Miles Austin will indeed be out another week with his injury, and it may seem that is awesome news for Bryant owners, you’re forgetting about some guy names Laurent Robinson who has been absolutely on fire of late (and could very well single-handedly be saving my fantasy season). There’s no doubt Robinson is Romo’s go-to guy right now, especially in the redzone. Bryant could be good for a big play or two against a pretty bad Cardinals secondary, but I just don’t see him putting up big numbers.
Week 13 Forecast: 3 REC 54 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson
Vernon Davis TE SF
Matchup vs St. Louis
Had I told myself a few weeks ago that I would feature a player in the duds section who is facing off against the fantasy point-gold mine that is the St. Louis Rams later in the season, I would’ve have thought I were going insane. But low and behold, here I am, tossing Vernon Davis into the fantasy crapper. Actually, for as bad as the Rams‘ secondary is this season, they’ve only allowed one touchdown to any opposing tight end all year long. Not to mention, the 49ers will likely do a lot of running in this game, which also means Davis will be staying in to block on downs he otherwise would’ve been allowed to roam free. There are better options than Davis on the waiver wire if you ask me. Cough, Anthony Fasano, cough.
Week 13 Forecast: 3 REC 37 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Brandon Pettigrew, Kellen Winslow
Gut Call: Kendall Hunter RB SF vs St. Louis Rams
Remember what I said about the 49ers running the ball all over the Rams? Yeah, that’s very likely this week. And while Frank Gore will almost certainly be the primary beneficiary of that, could you imagine San Fran going up so big that Hunter comes in an posts some great numbers of his own? Or, what if Gore were to go down? It’s risky business hoping for injuries, but Gore isn’t exactly Iron Man. I’ve actually stashed Hunter in multiple leagues from up off the waiver wire incase Gore does go down, that way I’m staying ahead of the pack. With Arizona, Seattle and another contest against the Rams still on the slate for the 49ers, it certainly doesn’t hurt taking a flier on Hunter.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Bills vs Tennessee Titans
I’m growing fairly sick of writing about the Bills in this fantasy column. It seems as soon as I come around and begin to endorse some of the Bills’ best offensive weapons as fantasy studs, they turn around and bite me in the rear (excluding Fred Jackson, but we all know what happened to him). The Titans defense is better than they get credit for and their secondary is actually pretty darn good. With a good pass rush and a decent run defense, I can’t see the Bills having a ton of offensive success this week. I suppose if Fitz can find a way to build off of last week’s performance he could toss for one or two scores, and as a result either Stevie or David Nelson would be good for a touchdown. But if you’re thinking about starting Spiller this week you don’t deserve to have a fantasy football team. That is all.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
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