Here we are in the first week of April, and with the scouting combines in our rearview mirrors, the next major event in the NFL season is the draft. That magical weekend of anticipating where your favorite college players will begin their professional careers as well as watching your favorite team adding the pieces that will hopefully contribute to the goal of winning sport’s ultimate prize.
As fantasy owners, however, the NFL Draft means a little more because once the announcement of “Mr. Irrelevant” is made, the fantasy season officially begins.
Now that we know where the coaches have ended up and almost all of the free agents have been signed to their respective teams, we can add rookies to the list of researching priorities.
Even if your league doesn’t put a premium on the value of rookies, some first year players can, and will, make impacts in the upcoming season. There are many factors involved if you want to be the savvy owner who profits from rookie production.
The chief aspect to consider when evaluating rookies is playing time. Obviously, we won’t know exactly how much playing time a rookie will garner until the season unfolds. Until then, we must look at depth charts, offensive philosophies, and a coach’s willingness to play rookies.
In the case of depth charts, a player’s position will greatly impact his potential for competing on the gridiron. Wide receivers, for example, usually have the best odds of seeing the field simply because of the sheer number of wideouts involved in today’s pass happy offenses. Another contributing factor to a rookie pass catcher’s playing time prospects is the fact that many young receivers begin their careers as kick returners. It is especially important to remember this in leagues that reward players with extra fantasy points for long touchdowns.
Running back is another position in which fantasy owners can mine the most rookie gold. By now, everyone has heard the term “Running Back By Committee”, which seems to be the inclination of almost all of the teams in the NFL these days. Although this way of thinking has somewhat diluted the running back position in fantasy leagues, it can be beneficial to owners who pay attention to depth charts and waiver wires as they pertain to rookies who will be toting the rock the most for their teams.
The most important and complex position in all of sports is NFL quarterback. For this reason, it is hard to put too much stock in a rookie providing fantasy value, Cam Newton being the lone exception I can think of. However, rookie quarterbacks do have a place in fantasy. If you don’t want to commit a draft pick to a first year signal caller, you could simply spot start, or “stream” quarterbacks who have favorable matchups. (These strategies will be discussed in greater detail in future articles). This includes rookies who will undoubtedly be inconsistent from week to week. It is the well informed, and sometimes lucky, owners who will be the beneficiaries of these tactics.
The one position I can wholly advise against being a member of your squad is rookie tight end. It is widely known throughout the NFL that it takes tight ends at least two years to even be productive, let alone be fantasy studs. That being said, don’t waste your time owning these players. Instead, keep a watchful eye on guys you may want to target in the next couple of years.
Once you have an idea of how much playing time a player may get in regards to his position and depth chart, coaching philosophy is the next major hurdle for rookie players. There are many coaches who are reluctant to play rookies, regardless of when he was drafted, because of the ever turning coaching carousel in the NFL. Coaches have shorter leashes than ever before and putting your fate in the hands of a rookie takes a lot of guts.
In the weeks after the draft leading up to the first week of regular season action, it is important to get to know the offensive coordinators for each team. It is easy to research these coaches and their strategies. Consider the run-to-pass ratio as well as how many fantasy stars these coaches turn out each year. How many of them were rookies? As it is in “real” football, the preparation a fantasy owner puts in during the offseason is just as imperative as the work done in season.
As always, “Keep On Scramblin’” and hit me up on Twitter @MaahsScrambler with any fantasy needs.
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