Felipe Rivero: The Showdown, The Measurables, and The Ceiling

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a special reliever on their hands with Felipe Rivero. Need proof? Look to The Showdown, The Measurables, and The Ceiling.

The Showdown

It’s not every day you see one of baseball’s best completely overmatched in an at-bat, but that’s exactly what the crowd at PNC Park saw last Thursday between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals. It was made evident during the showdown that this wasn’t your normal matchup between pitcher and hitter.

This was Bryce Harper — once dubbed “the LeBron James of baseball” for his meteoric rise from teenage phenom to perennial Major League All-Star — facing a man who was his teammate this time a year ago.

Harper was at bat with runners on the corners and two outs in a game his team trailed 8-4, just trying to make solid contact off Rivero’s triple-digit fastball, four of which he delivered to catcher Chris Stewart during the encounter.

“Not only is he throwing it 100 miles an hour,” said Pirates’ television analyst Bob Walk, “it’s exactly where Stewart is holding the glove.”

The irony of the situation was that Rivero is the odds-on favorite to be the next man to take Melancon’s former job as the Pirates’ closer, and here he was, winding up to stick it to the best player on the team that traded him away.

Rivero’s only slider in the six-pitch at-bat hooked low and outside of the strike zone, and Harper checked his swing just enough to make the count 2-2. Harper was still alive, still in position to make this a new ballgame with one of his heavy left-handed swings. Rivero quickly reset himself on the pitching rubber, got his sign, came to his set position and fired another fastball. Harper swung through it for strike three, Stewart pumped his fist, and the crowd roared in appreciation of such a big moment.

Rivero, appearing unfazed, just walked off after retiring the only batter he would face in the game.

He had just punched out one of baseball’s biggest stars with his best heat, and it was apparently no big deal.

That is exactly what some fans are hoping Rivero can bring to the ninth inning for the Pittsburgh Pirates soon: a nearly unhittable fastball with at least two complementary secondary pitches and an ice-cold demeanor in key situations. And if history is any indicator, Rivero has a very bright future ahead of him.

“That’s why we got him up and got him ready, and if the game would’ve stayed close he would’ve gone back out for the 8^th,” said manager Clint Hurdle after the game. “He’s an elite reliever. That’s a matchup that I’ve got to believe in today’s game you pay to watch that matchup on both sides.”

The Measurables

The trait that was possibly most discussed when Rivero was acquired by the Pirates last summer is his fastball velocity, which is among the most desired measurable traits for a pitcher. This season, Rivero’s average fastball velocity is 97.5 miles per hour, 15^th-highest out of 527 pitchers who have thrown a pitch in MLB so far this year. Among the relievers ahead of him are notable names like Aroldis Chapman (99.4 – first), Trevor Rosenthal (99.1 – second), Dellin Betances (98.3 – sixth), and Craig Kimbrel (97.9 – ninth).

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]It’s not every day you see one of baseball’s best completely overmatched in an at-bat[/perfectpullquote]

When looking at his statistics thus far in the 2017 season, it’s hard to put together a complete map of just where Rivero is among the better relievers in the game since we haven’t even reached Memorial Day, but perhaps it gives us a sense of his potential in the major leagues when comparing him to the best of the lot. He is currently sixth among all major league relievers with a 0.78 ERA and tied for third with 23 appearances. His 1.57 BB/9 ranks 16^th over 23 innings, which is tied for 19^th-most this season.

So far Rivero is showing he can at least handle a heavy workload and maintain a high level of success for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but there are some areas where he can still improve. His K/9 of 9.78 is 74^th in all of baseball, while many of the dominant relievers in the game, like Kenley Jansen, Kimbrel, Betances, Chapman and Andrew Miller are well into double digit strikeouts per nine innings. Some could point to his difficulty getting ahead in the count early as a reason why, as his percentage of pitching first strikes (F-Strike %) is 53.9, tied for 148^th among major league relievers. For reference, Jansen’s F-Strike % is 78.1, Miller’s is 72.5 and Kimbrel’s is 66.2. All three rank in the top 30. Considering this is Rivero’s second full season in the majors, he has shown some traits that are among the best relievers in the game, but he can still get better.

Of course, there is plenty of room for potential and expected improvement for a player that is only 25 years old. Rivero’s age and experience are perhaps the two things that give people the most room to dream on what he can become, considering he was first signed by the Tampa Bay Rays as a 17-year-old amateur free agent in 2008. Having found his niche already as a late-inning, high-leverage specialist at worst and a potential premium closer at best make him even more attractive as a long-term asset.

Rivero has been the Pittsburgh Pirates’ main attraction in May (stats through 5-19-17)

The Ceiling

So just how good can Felipe Rivero become over time? Given his status as a hard-throwing left-hander who has shown the ability to get batters out with high frequency, the easy thing to do would be to project his path in comparison to some other well-known, hard-throwing lefties who have been successful in years past as major league closers, which could get out of hand with speculation. But then again, what if we do it while comparing measurable traits? Let’s use these three for reference’s sake: Chapman, Billy Wagner and Francisco Rodriguez (a.k.a. “K-Rod”).

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]So far Rivero is showing he can at least handle a heavy workload and maintain a high level of success[/perfectpullquote]

In terms of size and build, Rivero is 6’2, shorter than the 6’4 Chapman, but taller than both K-Rod (6’0) and Wagner (5’10). It would be more difficult to compare fastball velocity since Wagner and K-Rod both started their careers before the advent of Pitch f/x during the 2007 season. But Wagner’s average velocity of 95.2 over his last four seasons given he pitched into his late 30’s is still pretty viable. (A story in the New York Times by Brett Martin, circa 2006 credited Wagner’s tremendous lower body strength, fast-twitch muscle fibers and extraordinary range of motion in his shoulder and elbow.)

Chapman’s fastball velocity speaks for itself as not only the greatest among this group, but arguably the greatest the game has ever seen, being clocked at 105.1 mph during his time with the Cincinnati Reds. The thought of a left-hander that can hit triple digits on the radar gun will always catch anybody’s attention, but it’s Chapman’s ability to off-set that blazing fastball with a slider that averages 87.8 mph makes it all the more difficult to anticipate, much less identify and hit squarely.

K-Rod was never really known for having a blistering fastball, although it was clearly above average (94.4 average velocity in 2007, his age 25 season). What made him the most effective was a very-refined three-pitch repertoire with his curveball (79.5 mph) and changeup (84.6 mph). During his 2008 season when he saved 62 games in 69 tries, Rodriguez had a K/9 rate of 10.14 despite an alarmingly high 4.48 BB/9. But his ability to change speeds, especially with his changeup, was best reflected in his pitch values. His fastball value (measured in runs above average per 100 pitches, or wFB/C) in 2008 was only 0.03, while his curveball’s value (wCB/C) was 0.56. But his changeup’s value (wCH/C) was 4.96. Only eight of 268 other pitchers who threw at least 60 innings that season had a higher value.

Rivero represents a pitcher who brings each of the three previously mentioned left-handed greats to the table: Wagner’s pure velocity, Chapman’s ability to change speeds and K-Rod’s expanded three-pitch repertoire. This season Rivero’s fastball has averaged 97.4 mph with an 87.6 mph changeup and an 82.3 mph slider, but what’s more encouraging his above average value for each of those pitches. According to Pitch f/x, Rivero’s wFA/C is 1.23, his wSL/C is 3.08 and his wCH/C is 2.42.

Am I unveiling Felipe Rivero’s bust in Cooperstown in this piece? Absolutely not. What I am trying to do is illustrate just exactly what the Pittsburgh Pirates have on their hands: a rare talent with the potential to reach levels some of the greatest, most talented left-handed arms in the history of the game have reached. And it may not take him much longer to get there. The only question that remains is when he’ll get the opportunity.

Josh Taylor is an award-winning sports broadcasting personality, currently hosting BUCCO TALK  the Pirates’ flagship 93.7 The Fan every Saturday. Josh can also be seen on KDKA and The CW networks.

Photo credit – Daniel Decker Photography