After Jason Grilli and Kevin Jepsen departed the lights-out Angels 2014 bullpen, Fernando Salas was tasked with a more important role in the 2015 bullpen. And, judging by some his peripheral numbers, Salas stepped up for the Angels. Salas threw five more innings in 2015 while also posting a career-best 27.5% strikeout rate, an also career-best 4.5% walk rate, a line drive rate 8% lower than 2014, and the second best groundball rate of his career. If not a dominant late-inning shutdown option, Salas was surely a reliable relief arm, right?
Not exactly. Salas’ ERA ballooned to 4.24 on the heels of some atrocious luck: a .308 BABIP* (27 points higher than his career rate), a career-high 10.8% home run to fly ball ratio, and a 64.8% strand rate that was nearly 10% lower than the league average for relievers and the worst mark in baseball for relievers with at least 50 innings thrown. You have to figure Salas will be the beneficiary of some better batted ball and strand luck this season, and if he combines the good fortune with what seemed like genuine improvement last season, the Angels will have a nice bullpen core. Not the Royals or the Yankees, but good enough to protect most late-inning leads.
*With men on base, his BABIP-allowed ticked up to .325.
Position: RP | Age (2016): 32
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’2” | Weight: 200
2015 WAR: -0.4
2015 in a Tweet
Salas owned a 6.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio but was inexplicably usurped by Trevor Gott, he of the 1.69 K/BB ratio, for many high-leverage situations.
2016 Projections
[table id=181 /]As usual PECOTA is less bullish on an Angels pitcher than Steamer or ZiPS, but all three projections like Salas to bounce back and post an ERA more in line with his 2015 FIP.
*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP
Pitch Usage
Like most of the arms out of the bullpen, Salas won’t blow batters away with a fastball. Yet, he still misses bats with the fastball at a similar rate to his breaking and offspeed offerings. Typically, Salas’ fastball is his most effective pitch, and last season opponents only hit .217 against the four-seamer while hitting .291 against the curve and .333 against the change.
Salas abandoned his sinker since moving to the American League and didn’t throw one last season despite promising to utilize the pitch.
Zone Profile
Salas doesn’t have a large platoon split; his career wOBA against left-handed hitters is .290 and his wOBA against right-handed hitters plummets all the way down to .289. In one sense, it’s nice he can remain effective against left-handed hitters, while on the other you wish that he was more dominant against right-handers. Oh well. With the lack of lefty options in Mike Scioscia’s bullpen, Salas may become the team’s de facto LOOGY of sorts, particularly if Mike Morin locks down the seventh-inning gig.
As for his approach, he works off the plate against left-handers with his fastball and change-up, while like most pitchers against same-sided batters he likes to bury the curevball in the dirt. In both cases he locates belt-high, middle of the plate much more than he should. All of a sudden a .308 BABIP and career-high home run rate start to make some sense.
Fun Fact
Salas was one of only 12 Mexican-born players to appear in the Major Leagues last season. Eleven of those 12 were pitchers, the lone exception being Braves utility infielder Daniel Castro.
What to Watch For
Salas is in a competition with another positive regression candidate, Morin, for primary seventh inning duty. Salas likely has the leg up because of #veteranpresence and a superior 2015 ERA, but if he struggles a bit early and Morin is as great as we here think he will be, then Salas could be demoted to middle relief through little to no fault of his own.
A Bold Prediction
A return to 2014. Salas won’t match some of his career-best rates from last season, but his fortune will improve. He will settle in as the sixth inning option and will give the Morin/Smith/Street trio a night off if needed. He’ll still be frustrating to watch and will garner dismissive “Salsa” and “Salad” Tweets, but he’ll be a key cog in the Angels’ slight bullpen resurgence.
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More Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington; Jered Weaver; Andrew Heaney; Garrett Richards; Hector Santiago; Matt Shoemaker; Huston Street; Nick Tropeano; Joe Smith; Mike Morin; José Álvarez
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