Pitching is the key to success in baseball. For any team striving for that goal of a World Series championship, you must have that ace to hand the ball to in huge games. As evident by the 2004 Boston Red Sox, two is also nice. The 2005 White Sox had four equal gunners, pitching like aces and dominating the competition, and they finished October with their first World Championship in 88 years. I?ve always believed the team entering the playoffs with the best 1-2 punch at the top of that rotation simply has the best chance to win games. I?ve been wondering to myself, who has the best 1-2 punch in baseball not just right now, but for the rest of the season and going into the postseason.
So I?ve taken six duos that qualify for the list from the American League and will use different statistics over the last three years to help separate the best. I?m using the last three years because it gives me the best balance to decide who really is number one (average for every stat but wins record). Of course, I?ll factor in other oddities like playoff success, ballpark, team makeup and age.
(Remember: every stat is average between the two pitchers except W-L record. Also, even if a pitcher had an injury-plagued season, if they got at least 10 appearances in, I?m counting the season. I?m doing this because counting a pitchers 2002 statistics when they?re in the prime of their careers wouldn?t help judge their success for 2006).
1. Yankees: Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina
Johnson: 37-30, 3.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.20 H/9
Mussina: 42-25, 4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.25 H/9
Average: 79-55, 3.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.73 H/9
Career Playoff Success (Johnson): 7-8, 3.28 ERA, 1 World Series championship (2001), pitched in 2 CS
Career Playoff Success (Mussina): 7-7, 3.30 ERA, 2 AL pennants, pitched in 5 CS
Ballpark: Yankee Stadium hitters park to corners; pitchers to the gaps and center
Team: Offensive-driven; can definitely muster enough run support
Age: Johnson (43) and Mussina (38); age could factor in possible decline
The Yankees are obviously built for winning under an offense that currently has more money than Madagascar. This is a huge advantage for Johnson and Mussina. They don?t have to enter each playoff game knowing they might have to pitch to perfection because that offense is going to provide at least four runs every game. Unfortunately, Mussina has entered a steady decline (judging by his statistics) over the last three years and Johnson has suffered from minor injuries and signs of fatigue lately. He is the oldest pitcher of any in the league and it wouldn?t be all that surprising to see either Johnson or Mussina on the DL at some point during the stretch run or in October. As for the stats, the win-loss record looks very promising. We all know Johnson and Mussina have won games, it?s just a matter if they can do it anymore. The duo was average in last years postseason.
2. Red Sox: Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett
Schilling: 37-23, 3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.19 H/9 (2005 season hurts)
Beckett: 33-25, 3.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.98 H/9
Average: 70-48, 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.59 H/9
Career Playoff Success (Schilling): 8-2, 2.06 ERA, 3 WS appearances, 2 WS championships
Career Playoff Success (Beckett): 2-2, 2.11 ERA, 1 World Series championship (2003)
Ballpark: Fenway Park is considered a hitters park, short corners
Team: Average offense with two sluggers in the middle; will need to pitch well
Age: Schilling (39) and Beckett (26); Schilling looks in 2002-form and Beckett has strong arm
Red Sox fans have many reasons to be excited for the playoffs. Theo Epstein came into this season building the team to make the playoffs and have success once they get there, contrary to 2005 where the team completely depended on the offensive production. Schilling is off to a magnificent start in 2006, but there still is a very good possibility he wears down/gets injured before the season is over. Beckett looks to be hitting his prime right now and could very well win the Cy Young. The two pitchers playoff success definitely stands out. Schilling is considered one of the best postseason pitchers of our generation and Beckett led the 2003 Marlins to the promised land as their ace. This duo, though, does not have an offense like the Yankees for consistent run support.
3. Blue Jays: Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett
Halladay: 42-19, 3.29 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.51 H/9
Burnett: 31-25, 3.47 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.44 H/9
Average: 73-44, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.98 H/9
Career Playoff Success: No playoff experience for both pitchers
Team: Very solid offense that can score chunks of runs
Age: Both capable for the entire season, but also extremely injury-prone
I?ve never been a big fan of Burnett, but you can?t ignore his great numbers when healthy and he has an extraordinary H/9 average. He?s got the capability to dominate a ballgame, as with Halladay. Both pitchers don?t have playoff experience, but the Jays duo will be a threat if they make the playoffs.
4. White Sox: Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia
Buehrle: 46-32, 3.72 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.44 H/9
Garcia: 39-33, 4.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.62 H/9
Average: 85-65, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.03 H/9
Career Playoff Success (Buehrle): 2-0, 3.42 ERA, 1 WS championship
Career Playoff Success (Garcia): 6-2, 3.11 ERA, 2 CS, 1 WS championship
Ballpark: Hitters park to all fields
Team: Very consistent and capable throughout lineup
Age: Both under 30 years old
What makes the White Sox roll is their depth in the rotation, so you can argue Jose Contreras, Jon Garland or Javier Vasquez as their #2 starter. As for Garcia, he gets the nod because A) I think he?s a better pitcher and B) his playoff record is very good. Garcia?s H/9 is also very low. You didn?t see it in last years postseason, but the Cell is prone to giving up cheap home runs.
5. Los Angeles Angels: Bartolo Colon and John Lackey
Colon: 54-33, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.76 H/9
Lackey: 38-34, 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.52 H/9
Average: 92-67, 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.14 H/9
Career Playoff Success (Colon): 2-3, 3.61 ERA, 1 CS
Career Playoff Success (Lackey): 2-1, 3.26 ERA, 1 CS, 1 WS championship
Team: Offense is getting old, but there?s still Vlad in the middle
Age: Colon and Lackey still relatively young
Okay, maybe the Angels was a bad idea. These two don?t match up with the likes of the previous four teams, but do pose a decent threat come playoff time. John Lackey pitched in Game 7 of a World Series as a rookie, so you don?t get much more tested than that early in your career. Colon won the AL Cy Young by default last season and hasn?t pitched very deep in the playoffs in his career, losing his only start in last years ALCS.
6. Oakland Athletics: Barry Zito and Rich Harden
Zito: 39-36, 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.88 H/9
Harden: 26-16, 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.78 H/9
Average: 65-52, 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.83 H/9
Career Playoff Success (Zito): 3-2, 2.76 ERA
Career Playoff Success (Harden): 1-1, 13.50 ERA
Team: Lineup struggling to score early and could all year
Age: Zito and Harden with lively, strong arms
Never been a big fan of Barry Zito. The stats show his record over the last three years is barely over .500, but he does have decent numbers in the Division Series appearances for Oakland. Harden was raked in his few games out of the bullpen in 2004.
(So, you?ve skimmed and probably haven?t read all of my research. Now it?s time to break up the categories and see who came out on top, then find out the best 1-2 combo in the AL).
Best W-L PCT: 1) TOR, 2) BOS, 3) NYY, 4) LAA, 5) CWS, 6) OAK
Best ERA: 1) TOR, 2) BOS, 3) OAK, 4) NYY, 5) CWS, 6) LAA
Best WHIP: 1) TOR, 2) NYY, 3) BOS, 4) CWS, 5) OAK, 6) LAA
Best H/9: 1) OAK, 2) TOR, 3) BOS, 4) NYY, 5) CWS, 6) LAA
Playoff Success: 1) BOS, 2) NYY, 3) CWS, 4) LAA, 5) OAK, 6) TOR
Ballpark: 1) OAK, 2) TOR, 3) LAA, 4) NYY, 5) BOS, 6) CWS
Team: 1) NYY, 2) CWS, 3) BOS, 4) OAK, 5) TOR, 6) LAA
Age/Injuries: 1) OAK, 2) CWS, 3) LAA, 4) BOS, 5) TOR, 6) NYY
Final Standings:
1) Boston Red Sox (Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett): 23 points
2. Toronto Blue Jays (Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett): 23 points
3. New York Yankees (Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina): 26 points
4. Oakland Athletics (Barry Zito, Rich Harden): 26 points
5. Chicago White Sox (Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia): 32 points
6. Los Angeles Angels (Bartolo Colon, John Lackey): 38 points
We have a tie between the Jays and Red Sox. As the esteemed tiebreaker, I decide the Red Sox win for one primary reason: playoff experience. The Sox are better positioned to win in the postseason because Beckett and Schilling have already carried teams in and to the World Series before in their career. Halladay and Burnett have pitched a combined 0 innings in the playoffs. The Blue Jays also only contribute much of their 1-point domination in the statistic categories. Or maybe I?m biased. Whatever.
If you have actually gone through this article and read my long and probably mistake-ridden research, I congratulate you. For me, I?ve always wanted to find out in April who?s best positioned for October, and using these stats and factors, this is the best way, in my mind, to gather the information. Your winner: the Boston Red Sox. Shockah.
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