Final Draft Day Notes
-Seattle and New York (Jets) both are targeting Melvin Ingram. Seattle and Chicago are both targeting Chandler Jones and Quinton Coples. Look for all three to go in those three picks, barring a major surprise.
-Don’t be shocked if the Bucs go Stephen Gilmore at pick #5 if Gilmore goes 3rd. They’d like Trent Richardson, but could easily get a running back like Doug Martin/David Wilson early in the 2nd to fill Greg Schanio’s “Ray Rice” type, powerful inside runner role that he had at Rutgers. Likely what they’re considering right now.
-The Eagles want Fletcher Cox, and they may not need to trade up to get him. St. Louis likely looks Matt Kalil or cornerback with their first pick, Jacksonville seems locked to get Justin Blackmon, and outside of Kansas City considering him, he should slide to the Eagles at 15. They still could trade up to secure him.
-Miami seems locked to Ryan Tannehill at #8 (see below), but if they pass, I’d be surprised if Kansas City (who has Cassell as starter, signed Brady Quinn, drafted Ricky Stanzi last year) or Seattle (just signed Flynn, investing in TJax, like 2nd/3rd quarterbacks) pounced on him. If he’s there, the Eagles have shown interest, don’t have “glaring” needs, two 2nd round picks too add depth, and he’s a great fit for Andy Reid’s system.
–David DeCastro to Kansas City seems very likely. Also, Arizona has Riley Reiff rated as their top OT after Matt Kalil, and he’ll likely be their pick, especially if Michael Floyd is gone by then.
-Despite constant projections of defensive tackles to Carolina, they may not be heading that direction in the draft. They may be targeting Stephen Gilmore or Luke Kuechly in particular.
-The Broncos at pick 25 seem the most unrelated to the rest of the first round. Barring a top tier DT falls (maybe trade up for Fletcher Cox), they seem set to stay at 25 and target a defensive tackle. A falling Dontari Poe, their constantly predicted Jerel Worthy, or surprise options Kendall Reyes or Brandon Thompson are all in play. IF they go running back, it’ll likely be Lamar Miller.
-Tennessee ALWAYS takes high ceiling athletes in the first round, so keep that in mind. Whitney Mercilus, Chandler Jones, Stephen Hill, and Dontari Poe all fit that mold. May consider Dre Kirkpatrick as well, but I’d doubt it.
-It doesn’t look like any other running back will be taken in the first round outside of Trent Richardson. The only shot at it happening is if the Broncos go Lamar Miller, or a team tries to trade up back into round one (St. Louis, Tampa Bay). I wouldn’t bank on it.
Five to Watch for First Round Trade Up
1. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
-The Browns are the most obvious choice to do so, but if the Dolphins take Tannehill, do they need to? Only the Bills make sense for Weeden in the Top 50 picks.
2. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
-Odds are, teams from pick 26-32 won’t be targeting a running back, so likely Trent Richardson is the only first round running back. But St. Louis and Tampa Bay could be battling to secure him.
3. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
-Forget the character concerns, he’ll be highly sought after come early 2nd round, and won’t get past 50. He’s the clear cut 2nd best man cornerback in this draft, and teams can’t pass on that talent.
4. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
-Fleener has been a bit over-rated by this whole process because he’s the top tight end most places, but outside of Houston, Baltimore, and New York, teams won’t be targeting him. And I’d be surprised if any of the teams in the Top 30 reach for Fleener.
5. Failling WRs
-In receiver class that has all of it’s value from picks 20-40, we could see 5 go in that time. Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle, and Stephen Hill are likely to be in the Top 26, but if one of those guys falls, or a team is trying to get Brian Quick/Alshon Jeffery, we could see some movement up ahead of the receiver need Rams at 33.
Thinking Through Tannehill to Miami
Ryan Tannehill is likely headed to Miami, and if it’s for the RIGHT reasons (the head coach, offensive coordinator, and GM are all in agreement), it may be Tannehill’s best landing spot. They have two quarterbacks on one-year deals next year, so there’s no pressure to play in year one at all. With a solid offensive line and a system that could highlight Matt Moore’s skills, the offense (and team as a whole) could be a competitive 7-9, 8-8 team.
In my opinion, Tannehill needs time to sit, understand the game, and develop his ability to confidently read defenses for him to hit his high ceiling. His mobility, quick release, timing on the outside, and natural arm strength, he has an Aaron Rodgers type ceiling. But part of the reason Aaron Rodgers is as good as he is thanks to his ability to take his time in development. Give Tannehill time, and he may be a similar NFL quarterback.
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