With the 2015 NBA Draft upon us, here are some final thoughts about what to expect Thursday night.
Its draft week, within just 72 hours we will finally have the answers we have all been seeking. Will Sacramento trade Cousins? Will the Sixers take another big man? Will the Celtics move up? These are just some of the questions fans are trying to wrap their heads around. At this time of year there are so many “leaks” it’s hard to keep up with how the draft will shake out. Personally I can’t wait for what I see as the NBA’s version of Christmas day… Draft night.
Call me boring, but I feel the whole debate fans have in the build up to the draft about who “fits their teams needs” are completely overblown. Discussing fit just gives writers and fans more topics to discuss — it’s fun, we all do it. However, when it comes to the draft itself NBA teams take the top guy listed in their big bored 9/10 times, fit is rarely taken into account unless 2-3 prospects are neck and neck.
I have a lot of thoughts about the 2015 draft, so many it would be hard to create a swell structured post, so I haven’t. I decided to collect all my random musings and put them all in one muddled up post.
LA Lakers
If Towns goes first, the Lakers should D’Angello Russell, not Jahlil Okafor. Russell is the number one player on my big board, not Towns, not Okafor. Russell’s got size, he’s s good shooter, but the best thing about him is his passing ability and vision. To be the leader on a good team you need to be able to punish teams for overplaying or doubling you, Russell has all the tools to carry this burden and be a top level all star talent.
The most likely scenario is that the Lakers take Okafor at two, I’m not buying this “Porzingis is in contention”, I’m putting this down to simple per draft smoke. If the Lakers were to take Okafor I would expect the Lakers would go into training camp with both big men and see how it plays out. If having two big men who can’t shoot and are slow on their feet doesn’t work (highly likely) you can simply move Randle for some other pieces. Not drafting Okafor because of Randle already being there is pure insanity to me.
If the Lakers did end up moving back to say the seventh pick rumor has it they are strongly interested in Myles Turner, which in my opinion is way too high for him, he sits at just 18 on my big board. The fit for Turner also looks like a bad one, drafting a modern NBA big who’s strength is shooting threes to put into Byron Scott’s three point adverse system seems puzzling to me.
New York Knicks
If Towns, Okafor, or Russell aren’t available at four, I fully expect the Knicks to trade back. I hear the Nuggets at seven are an option, the Hornets at nine and the Suns at thirteen. The Knicks roster is totally devoid of talent, if they can pick up some assets and then select someone like Willie Cauley Stein or Justise Winslow then that makes a lot of sense to me
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic will find a way to end up with Kristaps Porzingis, mark my words. Whether Porzingis drops to five or they trade up with Philadelphia who reportedly have dropped this “Porzingis” buzz as a smokescreen to try and force Orlando to trade up with them. The Magics GM Rob Hennigan has Porzingis very high on his board, he looks to be the perfect fit with the rest of the Magic core which lacks outside shooting and rim protection.
Sacramento Kings
If the Kings don’t trade for a point guard on draft night and Mudiay is available he should be their guy. Mundiay thrives in transition, this would fit well in George Karl’s fast paced system. He is also a good pick and roll player, both Cousins & Gay could act as terrific screeners for him giving the Kings a lot of options on offense.
However, it’s impossible to predict what Sacramento’s enthusiastically nuts owner Vivek Randive will opt to do. It was reportedly Randive who overruled D’allesandro and Mullin in last years draft to take Stauskas, a year on will he have learned his lesson and allow Divac to have the final call? Other questions revolve around the rift which has reportedly emerged between the Karl/Cousins camp, it seems that either Karl or Cousins will have to go, not an ideal situation. The cherry on top of all this is the Kings are now reportedly interested in Javale McGee, this almost seems like the NBA’s version if “You’ve been Punk’d”, you honestly just couldn’t make it up.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will most definitely make a move on draft night, as Mike Malone has already said he expects to inherit a new roster next year. Whether it’s the Nuggets moving their seventh pick or trading away one or two of Faired/Lawson/Chandler, there is no way they sit still. If Hezonja is there at seven I expect him to be the pick, the Nuggets have an affinity for international players and not too many come with better pedigree than Hezonja.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers will find a way to get Willie Cauley Stein, it’s possible he drops all the way to 11, but I don’t see it. I expect them to try and move up, both the Pistons and Hornets are targeting Stanley Johnson and Devin Booker respectively are possibilities for trade partners.
Miami Heat
If the Miami Heat keep the pick, which is a long shot, I think they will select Frank Kaminsky or Sam Dekker. The last player the Heat drafted in the first round was Michael Beasley in 2008, it’s well reported that Riley isn’t a fan of building through the draft. The few picks that Riley does make are normally older, intelligent and more experienced players, both of the Wisconsin stars fit that criteria.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns look to be active in trying to trade up, reportedly offering 13 and Eric Bledsoe for the Knicks fourth pick, which is shocking considering he is their last of the three point guards they had on their roster last season. Phoenix has a lot of average talent in Goodwin/Warren/Marcus Morris/Bullock/Len, I think whatever they get at 13 is just going to add to that pool of okay talent. If I’m the Suns I try and move up to the 5-9 range and dangle some of their younger rotation guys, but hang on to Bledsoe. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bledsoe wanted out of Phoenix, bridges were definitely burned in last years free agency stand off, if that’s the case it might be worth cashing in on him now.
Boston Celtics
If I am 100 percent sure about anything, it’s that Danny Ainge and the Celtics will make a move and get into the lottery on draft night. There are a number of teams looking to move back (Knicks, Sacramento, Charlotte) but I’m not sure any of them are willing to go as far back as 16. However, Ainge is a much smarter man than I am, I have no doubt he will have 4-5 different moves up his sleeve.
1st round Sleepers
– Rondae Hollis Jefferson – SF/PF – Arizona – 6’7 – 11.2ppg 6.8rpg 1.6apg
He may never learn to shoot, he might never start a game, but come playoff time I know a number of teams would love to have Hollis-Jefferson to throw on the other teams best perimeter player. One aspect of RHJ’s game which is extremely underrated is his passing, I’ve always said if you aren’t a good scorer yourself you need to be able to create for others. I currently have RHJ at 13 on my big board and think he’s great value for any team if he slides out the lottery.
– Chris McCullough – PF – Syracuse – 6’9 – 9.3ppg 6.9ppg 1.1apg
If McCullough had been healthy I think he would have been taken ahead of both Portis and Turner. McCullough is another “New age” big man, he is long and athletic and showed flashes of a consistent jump shot in his year with Syracuse before tearing his ACL early in the season. With his questionable motor and ACL tear (reportedly ready for training camp) McCullough is truly a boom or bust pick, but once you get into the low twenties I think he’s worth the risk, he’s 22nd in my big board .
– Bobby Portis – PF – Arkansas – 6’11 – 17.5ppg 8.9rpg 1.2apg
He won’t wow you with his offensive skills, crazy dunks or his silky handle, but Portis is a “Can’t miss” type player who will be a 10 year pro. Even thought it’s somewhat ugly and unorthodox, his jump shot has improved throughout the year and should be respectable in the NBA. He can score in the post and is a good offensive rebounded, I think if him a little bit in the Tristan Thompson mould. By all accounts Portis is a really high character guy who teammates and coaches love, currently he is 15th on my big board but I could see him sliding to the 20s.
2nd round sleepers
Anthony Brown -SF – Stanford – 6’7 – 14.8ppg 6.9rpg 2.5apg
If I told you a prospect has good athleticism, has shot over 40% from three for the last two years and is one of the best passers for his position in the draft was a second round prospect, what would you think? Brown is a late bloomer and is a four year senior, like all older prospects that impacts his stock and upside. Saying that, I’m a massive fan of Brown, he has real role player potential as a 3 & D guy. Yes this term is overused now but it couldn’t be more accurate in this case. Brown shot a staggering 1.5 points per possession on no dribble jump shots, feed that man the ball for spot ups! Unfortunately, he shot just 42 percent from two point range and his inability to take advantage of his defensive gifts are the only think stopping Browns name being called in the first round.
Joseph Young – SG – Oregon – 6’2 – 20.7ppg 4.3rpg 3.7apg
Every year there is an undersized two guard who is a great scorer at the college level but can never find a role in the NBA. We’ve seen the likes of Andrew Goudlock, Josh Selby, Kim English, Darius Johnson-Odom all grace the NBA with their presence, only to be converting their first NBA salary into Euros. So why would Jo Young be any different? I see Young as a better shoot than those listed, his ceiling is probably a CJ McCollum type player, I’m backing him to break the trend for undersized twos selected in the second round to flame out.
Josh Richardson – SG – Tennessee – 6’6 – 16ppg 4.5rpg 3.6apg
Richardson is a DeMarre Carroll type player, he defends as fiercely as anyone in the draft, shot 36% from three and thrives in transition. Despite having a stellar four years at Tennessee Richardson didn’t get an invite to the draft combine, but after a number if good workouts he’s forced himself into the second round conversation.
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