Every college football season we are gifted one week (at a minimum) where pandemonium strikes. I’m not talking about the normal insanity; the crazy finish, two undefeated teams going down, a Heisman candidate getting injured or playing poorly. No, we’ve seen those weeks already. This week, we were gifted with copious amounts of college football’s mind-blowing upsets.
Remember just a few weeks ago when I wrote about the unusually high amount of undefeated teams? Well, all good things come to an end. Five teams saw the dream of an undefeated season slip away in week ten, and that shakeup was what we’ve all been anticipating.
That is, of course, the biggest headline this week.
Texas Christian University, Michigan State University, Louisiana State University, the University of Toledo, and the University of Memphis all felt defeat for the first time this season. Three of those teams had realistic dreams of a playoff run, and Memphis was hoping to play Cinderella for the first time in the new playoff format.
Ah, now it feels like college football season. It never feels quite right until the sting hits a few teams that were on the cusp of greatness. Its sick that we, college football fans, take joy in defeat. Its fun seeing other teams lose, especially your rival, but when it is your team the feeling could not get any worse. For TCU, MSU, LSU, UT, and UM fans, this week is going to be a long one. It’s just Tuesday and the week feels like it’s never going to end. But it will, your team will play again and you will get that feeling of victory back once again.
Now that I’ve talked you back off the edge, let’s look at the week with a little better eye. What does it all mean for the CFP?
TCU, LSU, and MSU all had legitimate chances to make it. Those have been spoiled, so who are the beneficiaries?
1. The University of Alabama is obviously the biggest winner
They had to beat LSU or the season was going to be all for not. The rolling Tide can only commence with championship rings and college football supremacy. They’ve successfully slid into the number three, possibly the number two spot of last week’s initial release of the committee’s rankings. They love Alabama, and No. 4 beating No. 2 should be good enough for a bump to the number two spot, ahead of an undefeated Ohio State University team.
2. Oklahoma State University is 1A to Alabama
They weren’t willing to wait to be boosted from others; it was time for them to earn stripes on the field. They did so. TCU looked amateur in the matchup that ended with the Cowboys on top 49-29, a blowout. That win alone will not boost them into the playoff, but a matchup with Baylor University looms only two weeks into the future. A win over another top four team will put an undefeated OK State team on the path to the playoff.
3. The University of Notre Dame and Stanford University are the dual beneficiaries of the week
After the Irish had suffered an early season loss to No. 1 Clemson, the Irish needed some help to be back into the postseason conversation. An opening weekend defeat at the hands of Northwestern University, Stanford was in the same boat. This weekend has put them both in the thick of the race. Pending another upset to either team, the winner of the ND-Stanford matchup to end the regular season could very well be for a playoff spot. That’s on the horizon, they each have two games left before the big showdown.
4. We, the fans, received a big boost, though. Remember: we love watching teams lose
Losing makes winning more fun and makes the game real. Last week, we had 11 undefeated teams in the CFP standings. This week, we will have only six. Houston is one of the six and now assumes the Cinderella role. Do they have a shot at making the playoff? Probably not. But that’s the best we have after Memphis lost. The third trimester of the season is nearing, if you don’t know what that is, look here. We now see more clearly what the situation is.
Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama are all in a win and in situation. They’ll all make it if they finish up strong.
Baylor and Oklahoma State are in that same position. That matchup, not the Baylor-TCU matchup, is now the Big 12’s marquee matchup. That is the Big 12 championship for what it’s worth. TCU can play spoiler for Baylor, of course.
Notre Dame and Stanford have to win out, whoever does will have a good shot at making it. For them to get in, they need one of the teams above to falter. A Baylor win over OK St. and loss to TCU would do it, same with any of the three locks at the top.
The University of Iowa is a team that would probably make it with a Big 10 Championship if they beat an undefeated OSU in Indianapolis.
Much like Iowa, the University of Florida will need to win the conference championship. That will mean beating Alabama most likely. Good luck, but if they do, Florida could slip into the CFP.
Anyone behind Iowa and Florida is going to need a lot of help, which is entirely possible.
So, that’s the scenario as it currently looks.
Who do I have in?
1. Clemson
2. Baylor
3. Alabama
4. Stanford
No surprises at the top. Clemson is the best team in the nation that’s undefeated. They have clinched the Atlantic Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference, so that’s goal number one. Now they have to finish everything up, win the title, and they’re in. Baylor has two difficult games, OK St. and TCU, win those and they’re in. They will. Alabama wins the SEC; they just look superior to anyone in the conference. Stanford will win the game against Notre Dame. Injuries have been the story in South Bend, and Stanford has a dynamic ground attack with sophomore Christian McCaffrey.
I could see a few things happening, though. Ohio State hasn’t been beautiful this season, but they’re starting to glow. I still have reservations about the back-to-back-to-back games against MSU, Michigan, and Iowa. That’s going to be a gauntlet.
Notre Dame beating Stanford is completely possible, maybe even likely.
Iowa and OK St. both have a very clear path to the playoff. I just don’t see it working out perfectly for Iowa. For the Cowboys, I just don’t see another inspired game against the Bears.
Now, it’s time once again for my Heisman Rankings. This week, we saw some major shakeups, I wasn’t even expecting this.
1. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama: 38 CAR, 210 Yards, 3 TDs
On The Year: 218 CAR, 1,254 Yards, 17 TDs
Remember way back at the beginning of the year when Henry would only get a handful of carries against the lackluster opposition? Nick Saban knew what he was doing, and I knew what Saban was doing. He was saving Henry. He knew he’d need the 240-pound workhorse for the big games. Nearly 40 carries later and the Heisman spotlight has flipped to Henry. I’ve said that the LSU-Bama game could shape the Heisman campaign, it has. For now, that game changed it all.
2. Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor: 11 REC, 216 Yards, 2 TDs
On The Year: 58 REC, 1,178 Yards, 20 TDs
Coleman’s record-setting season is still rolling despite his quarterback going down. The backup signal caller, freshman Jarrett Stidham, looked poised and ready to lead this team to the playoffs. Coleman’s records and Heisman candidacy was called into question with the sudden change. But after 216 of Stidham’s 419 yards, and two of his three touchdowns, went to the star receiver, it’s safe to say Coleman is going to continue to put up video game numbers.
3. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 19 CAR, 31 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 195 CAR, 1,383 Yards, 16 TDs
Averaging 1.6 yards per carry is effectively a Heisman killer. Doing it while getting the ball 19 times in your team’s biggest game of the season, that’s Heisman suicide. Fournette is still a great back. But the offensive line couldn’t get going, and Fournette only looked like himself on one fourth quarter carry of 18 yards. That game was bad for the Tigers in a number of ways. Fournette will need some stellar weeks and a lot of help to win it.
4. Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU: 35-57, 445 Yards, 1 TD – 4 INT
On The Year: 233-354, 3,372 Yards, 29 TDs – 9 INT
Rushing: 107 CAR, 597 Yards, 8 TDs
The good from last weekend? Rushing for over 70 yards and a pair of scores.
The bad from last weekend? Just about everything else. For Trevone Boykin, the Heisman Memorial Trophy was his to lose. Just finish out strong, don’t have a bad game, and don’t lose.
He blew it on all three accounts.
TCU looked bad, and they lost a ton of ground in the playoff race. They need a miracle at this point. The same could be said for Boykin’s Heisman hopes. This is the first time that Boykin hasn’t held the number one spot. Hopefully, he can finish strong and transition to the No Fun League well.
5. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 28-42, 297 Yards, 1 TD – 0 INT
On The Year: 183-262, 2,246 Yards, 21 TDs – 7 INT
Rushing: 94 CAR, 493 Yards, 4 TDs
Watson had over 100 on the ground and added 297 through the air. Another great week against a very solid Florida State University squad. Watson, let us all remember real quick, is only a sophomore. He has another year to go. Clemson, let us all take a quick refresher, is one of the youngest teams in the country. They’re a year away from being full strength. So this season won’t end with a Heisman for Watson, but it could end in a National Championship. Next year, he is my bet for the Heisman.
Players To Watch: I don’t think anyone can really come on strong enough to surpass the top two in my poll. Maybe a run by Fournette or Boykin could do it, but that’s going to take some help. The only outsider that could do it is Ezekiel Elliott. He can still show up in three big games before the Heisman vote is tallied. Watch out for those six, nobody else is on my immediate radar.
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