Finding Pitching

JOSH BECKETT / TSN.COM

The season of Josh Beckett has now drawn to a close with his 33rd start of the year. Beckett finishes with a 16-11 record, and his season ends on a down note, after the previous six starts had been so promising. The final episode saw his ERA skyrocket from 4.82 to a demoralizing 5.01. Yes, Randy Johnson’s ERA is 5.00, but if Josh Beckett is our Randy Johnson, we have problems.
Going into the offseason with a 5.01 ERA will not help matters. Curt Schilling left Fenway with a 3.97 ERA, ensuring that he would finish with an ERA under 4.00. Numbers on their face mean a lot to the psyche of players, and Schilling now has an ERA for 2006 under 4.00. While many of us expected Beckett to finish with an ERA under 4.00, 4.82 was acceptable, based on all he’s been through this year. But 5.01? This makes things change.
This makes, in my opinion, a hole in the rotation.
(Note: No, I am not advocating what I am about to advocate simply because of the number 5.01. Even if his ERA was 4.82, I would still advocate this. Nonetheless, that 5.01 ERA makes this a lot more … shall we say … needed.)
Next year, our rotation is currently lining up to be:
SP Curt Schilling: 15-7, 204.0 IP, 3.97 ERA
SP Josh Beckett: 16-11, 204.2 IP, 5.01 ERA
SP Tim Wakefield: 7-11, 134.0 IP, 4.63 ERA (pitching the final game)
SP Jon Lester (maybe): 7-2, 81.1 IP, 4.76 ERA
SP Jonathan Papelbon: 35 SV, 68.1 IP, 0.92
So, we’re going to be forced to:
(a) Rely on an aging starter who just posted a 3.97 ERA … to be our ace.
(b) Rely on Ace 1B who has posted a 5.01 ERA in his first year in the AL. Like it or not, he has a 5.01 ERA, and we need to proceed assuming he repeats this year.
(c) Someone with back issues, getting older and older, but always there, always reliable.
(d) Someone who has cancer. It had to be said.
(e) Taking someone out of their element as ubercloser and making them a starter.
That is not a recipe for success. This is the way the rotation should be looking like:
SP _____ __________
SP Curt Schilling
SP Josh Beckett
SP Tim Wakefield
SP _____ __________
This means two very important things.
One, we get a top, frontline starter. Now, that’s going to be virtually impossible given the free agent market or who we’d cough up in a trade, so I’ll take an unquestioned #3 who can be a #2. Then we get a backend starter (sorry Kyle Snyder, you’re an AAAAer for now, even though I’m pulling for you) who can eat innings and can step aside when/if Jon Lester returns. In addition, this allows Papelbon to stay in the bullpen.
Look, I think Papelbon could be a good starter. But he’s a great closer. He’s got … let’s say guts … of steel. He’s got the reportoire of a closer. His element is a closer. He could be a good starter given refinement of his pitches, but one more year as a closer, in my opinion, is something that needs to be done, but I won’t complain if he starts next year.
Anyways, so we need a legit #3 and an innings-eating #5.
Let’s work on the innings eating #5 first. I would love to get a lefty here, so let’s look at the lefty free agents who could reasonably slot into a #5 slot.
Ted Lilly, Mark Mulder, Mark Redman, Randy Wolf, Barry Zito.
Let’s cull this list. We want people we can theoretically sign, people who can eat innings, and people who won’t be subject to a bidding war.
That gives us Mark Redman, Ted Lilly, and Randy Wolf. Statistics as of prior to the Wednesday games:
MARK REDMAN: 10-10, 159.0 IP (28 GS) with a 5.83 ERA. Has been worse post-All Star than pre-All Star. Mostly an NL’er.
TED LILLY: 14-13, 175.2 IP (31 GS) with a 4.41 ERA. Knows the AL East from Toronto and New York, and has stopped in Oakland.
RANDY WOLF: 4-0, 55.0 IP (11 GS) with a 5.24 ERA. Career NL’er who has returned from Tommy John surgery. (This is a good thing, because most TJ’ers improve markedly the second year after their return.)
It’s pretty clear cut here.
SIGN: Ted Lilly. Perfect #5 who can easily be a #4 or you can squeeze a #3 label out of him. He could come at a reasonable price. Rotoworld.com has predicted a two-year, $16 million commitment from the Nationals. Don’t you think we could easily beat that? I do. Sign him.
LOOK AT: Randy Wolf. A career TJ’er who may come at a bargain price, but has the NL label on him, beware.
YOU KNOW IT’S BAD WHEN: We even talk numbers with Mark Redman.
Okay. We’ve got Ted Lilly. How’s our rotation look?
SP Curt Schilling
SP Josh Beckett
SP _____ __________
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Ted Lilly
Now that we’ve signed Lilly, I would understand if Theo turned his attention to the bullpen or other issues. But I would keep plugging ahead. I want Papelbon as my closer. I want to bring Jon Lester back – slow. If he shows up for Spring Training, coddle him, and ease him back in with an AA stop before twiddling his fingers at AAA, waiting for injury. (It’ll happen.)
We need another starter. Not Kyle Snyder. A good one. We need someone who we can toss dollars at. I’m going to assume the White Sox resign Mark Buehrle, and I’m not going to even bother with Daisuke Matsuzaka. I’ll put forth a competitive posting offer and stay in it to inflate the money for other clubs and for PR reasons, but I won’t make a bid hoping to win. If the Yankees want him, the posting fee could be whatever they want it to be. Move on.
Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte.
The Barry Zito sweepstakes are just simply going to be out of control, and Jason Schmidt will be asking around three years. I wouldn’t bet on them, but there is no way I would bid heavily on them. Bid if it makes sense. Let’s assume that because so many clubs will have money and needs, they will sign for a gazitrillion dollars. Let’s also assume that Mike Mussina returns to the Yankees. If he doesn’t, let’s concede him to Philadelphia. Too many dollars for an arm that’s shot.
This leaves Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. As much as I would love Andy, he is already thinking about retiring at age 34. People say it’s a 50/50 chance. Thus, he will not retire if he gets lots of dollars from the Houston Astros, or more dollars from the Yankees. Even if we offer lots of dollars, the Yankees will offer more, to keep him away from us. He will not sign with us.
Who’s left? Oh. Roger Clemens.
All signs point him to retiring for good. Do we dare dream?
Well, all signs have pointed to him retiring for good for three straight years now.
Let’s split this off into two different discussions. Discussion number one: Roger Clemens signs.
SP Roger Clemens
SP Curt Schilling
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Josh Beckett
SP Ted Lilly
Done.
Now let’s assume Rocket doesn’t sign. We don’t have that bonafide #2/#3 pitcher, but that doesn’t mean we should give up. Instead, let’s pad our depth, and look for a right-handed version of Ted Lilly.
Miguel Batista, Adam Eaton, Byung-Hyun Kim (bear with me), Cory Lidle, Jason Marquis, Gil Meche, Vincente Padilla, Steve Trachsel.
Batista is out – he’s in the NL with a 4.50+ ERA. Kim is obviously out. Padilla is out due to … not being very nice in the clubhouse.
ADAM EATON: 7-4, 60.0 IP (12 GS) with a 4.80 ERA. Not an innings eater, but a guy with quality innings who has adjusted to the AL decently.
CORY LIDLE: 12-10, 169.2 IP (30 GS) with a 4.83 ERA. In 9 GS for the Yankees, he’s 4-3 with a ERA of 5.08. When we saw him in August, he was doing well, and he’s had injury issues since.
JASON MARQUIS: Don’t laugh, it’s not nice. 14-15, 192.1 IP (32 GS) with a 5.80 ERA. His career is a 4.50 ERA, and he’s 28. Think about it.
GIL MECHE: 11-8, 180.2 IP (31 GS) with a 4.48 ERA. Now this guy is intriguing as he has a career 55-44 record and is 28.
STEVE TRACHSEL: 15-8, 164.2 IP (30 GS) with a 4.97 ERA. Getting old, has been in the NL since the dinosaurs.
It’s not as clear cut as Ted Lilly, but it’s close.
SIGN: Gil Meche. Meche is the most palatable. He knows the AL, he’s spent his entire career with the Mariners, and as Rotoworld says, he should get one year worth $6 million from the Orioles due to his track record of injury. Wait – injury? Sounds like a good way to get Jon Lester to the majors. All kidding aside, come on. One year, six million? We can beat that. And we should.
LOOK AT: Adam Eaton, Cory Lidle. If the price is right, think about it. Eaton will command more dollars than Meche. Lidle could end up taking Meche’s place in Seattle.
YOU KNOW IT’S BAD WHEN: Steve Trachsel and Boston are linked in rumors.
So, we don’t sign Roger … or he says he’ll decide in June, so we move on assuming he retires. We have a rotation of:
SP Curt Schilling
SP Josh Beckett
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Ted Lilly
SP Gil Meche
You know … I actually dig that.