“November is for contenders.”

-James Patrick Tressel

With four Big Ten teams currently tied at the top of the standings, this November is clearly a month for contenders. Whichever teams can stay at one loss guarantee themselves at least a share of the conference crown.

Easier said than done… for some teams more than others.

The Buckeyes have arguably the toughest road to remain at one loss. Ohio State versus Iowa is the only game left that features two of the top teams going head to head.

It is by far the biggest game left on the Big Ten schedule and naturally has the largest implications in the conference race. It is also the toughest challenge remaining for Ohio State or any other one loss team (except maybe for Iowa, but they have the advantage of playing at home).

At the same time, anything can happen each Saturday. If the Big Ten has taught us anything this year, it is that winning on the road is an extremely difficult challenge for even the best teams.

Michigan State’s only loss was at Iowa. Wisconsin’s only loss was at Michigan State. Ohio State’s only loss was at Wisconsin. Iowa decided to buck the trend and lose at home to Wisconsin (which may bode well for Ohio State), but clearly the road has been unkind in the Big Ten this season.

Each remaining road game is a potential second loss for the top teams, opening up a chance for an outright championship, however small that chance may be.

Outright or shared, if Ohio State wins its remaining three games they will earn their sixth straight conference title. So rather than go into the details about what could happen with other teams, let’s talk about what Ohio State needs to do to finish strong and secure a championship.

Establish the Run

Ohio State went 3-0 in the final three games last season by running the football. Against Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan (the same final three teams they face this season, in the same order), the Buckeyes averaged 51 rushes for 236 yards (4.6 yards per carry) each game.

If Ohio State wants to have similar success this year, duplicating that effort on the ground will be step number one. In the last two games, the Buckeyes averaged running the ball 45.5 times for 224.5 yards (4.9 yards per carry)… so far so good. The first 100 yard game for a running back since week 1 is also a nice step in the right direction.

Penn State (68th, 155 ypg) and Michigan (57th, 149.75 ypg) are right in the middle of Purdue (47th, 139 ypg) and Minnesota (107th, 201.78 ypg) when it come to stopping the run. With Ohio State hosting both teams in the ‘Shoe, there is no excuse not to run it down their throats.

Iowa, on the other hand, boasts the 5th best rush defense in the country and are only giving up 84.5 yards per game on the ground.

Oh yeah, and the game is at Iowa. Have I mentioned that this will be the toughest challenge left on the schedule?

On the bright side, the game at Iowa is similar to the challenge the Buckeyes faced against Penn State last season. You may recall that Ohio State handled that challenge admirably.

On the road, against a Penn State defense that averaged giving up 89.85 yards on the ground (6th best in the country) and 2.85 yards per carry, the Buckeyes ran for 228 yards and 4.7 yards per carry.

Ohio State returns basically the same offense with the same players, which has me cautiously optimistic that they can achieve a similar performance at Iowa (or against anyone else) this season.

Ohio State proved last year that they could run the ball against even the best defenses. If they can match the attitude and intensity they had at the end of last season, there is no reason to believe they can’t do the same thing on the ground this time around.

One wild card to consider is the emergence of Reid Fragel at tight end. He played significant minutes against Minnesota and did an excellent job run blocking. Listed at 6’8″ and 260 pounds, his ability to provide a ‘third tackle’ for blocking purposes could be a huge factor on the ground over the final three games.

Smart Decision Making From Pryor

On the flip side of running the ball is Terrelle Pryor and the passing game. Last year Ohio State won games on the ground with limited help through the air. Over the final three games, Pryor only averaged 17 pass attempts for 95 yards.

The limited number of throws was partly due to injury, but also partly due to Pryor’s bad habit of turning the ball over (the most obvious example being the Purdue game). Even with limited opportunities throwing the ball (or maybe because of them), Pryor was able to throw three touchdown passes and only had one interception.

Since last season, Pryor has made drastic improvements as a passer. He should be able to carry more weight on offense than he did a year ago.

At the same time, his interception against Minnesota showed that he can still make (really) bad decisions. Against Minnesota, that mistake was not costly. Ohio State might not be so lucky  if he makes a similar mistake at Iowa or in a close game.

Momentum is vitally important on the road, and nothing kills momentum like costly turnovers. It is unlikely that Tressel will shut down the passing game as much as he did last season to prevent mistakes (especially considering Pryor’s improvement as a passer)… but he might.

If Pryor is purposefully limited throwing the ball, and even if he is not, his ability to make things happen on the ground will be a factor over the final three games.

Even with a gimpy knee, Pryor was able to convert big third down plays with his legs last season. With an improved passing attack and healthy wheels, Pryor’s ability to improvise and run with the football may be just as important as his ability to pass (the success of one will feed off of the other).

Regardless of how many opportunities Pryor has to throw or run the ball, he must make smart decisions and avoid turnovers to give Ohio State the best chance at victory.

Stellar Special Teams Play

Speaking of momentum and the things that kill it, Ohio State cannot give up big returns or points on special teams. Special teams killed momentum and put the team in a hole right away at Wisconsin. The hole proved too deep to come back from and life sucked.

Last year, a comfortable fourth quarter lead against Iowa turned into an overtime thriller thanks to poor special teams play. The plus side is that Ohio State showed that they can overcome that type of mistake (they came close this year at Wisconsin as well), but it certainly doesn’t make things easy, especially on the road.

If Ohio State can eliminate giving up easy points on special teams, their chances of going 3-0 will greatly increase. It has been an issue all season, so fingers crossed on that one.

Defense Wins Championships

Everyone knows the saying, probably because it is true. If a team doesn’t score any points against you, it is literally impossible to lose a game.

Minus some hiccups in the secondary and a bad performance at Madison, Ohio State has had a championship caliber defense this season.

With the 4th ranked scoring defense (13.6 ppg), the 3rd ranked rushing defense (83.56 ypg), the 5th ranked passing defense (150.2 ypg), and the 2nd ranked overall defense (233.8 ypg) you can’t say that they haven’t been holding up their end of the bargain.

Obviously, the defense needs to continue performing at a high level to win the final three games. The return of Ross Homan from injury will help.

There are some questions in the secondary, but they sure don’t show up in the statistics. With an extra week of practice before the next game, hopefully they can fix or at least mitigate any remaining issues.

Even if the issues linger, Penn State and Michigan feature quarterbacks that have clear deficiencies throwing the ball. On the other hand, Iowa has a veteran signal caller who will be playing at home. Hey, have I mentioned which game is going to be the … ah, never mind, you get the point.

And so on…

The game of football is simple.

All you have to do is run and pass the ball successfully without making mistakes, avoid giving up points or big returns on special teams, and keep the other team from scoring with your defense.

Easy, right?

What is not easy is maintaining the focus and attitude necessary to achieve those goals each and every Saturday of the season. The Buckeyes lost their edge against Wisconsin and the results were not pretty.

Thankfully, the team has responded and took care of business in convincing fashion the past two weeks.

The coaches and players know that a Big Ten Championship is at stake and they know what needs to be done during the next two weeks of practice.

November is for contenders.

This team took care of business last November and they have taken care of business the past two weeks. They know the attitude, intensity, and determination that it takes to be a champion… they proved it over the final three games last season.

Now they must prove it again. Finish strong.