As Tommy Tuberville and his staff and players turn their attention to fall camp with the 2014 season on the horizon, the Cincinnati Bearcats are a team facing high expectations.
Cincinnati is coming off what most would consider a successful 9-3 (6-2 AAC) first season under Tuberville. It finished third in the newly-formed American Athletic Conference but underwhelmed in its 39-17 Belk Bowl loss to North Carolina. With Louisville and Rutgers departing for new conferences and UCF losing the 2013 AAC Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Blake Bortles to the NFL, the Bearcats have been dubbed as the favorite to win the conference by the media.
As is often proven true, preseason prognostications do not count for anything when it comes to playing the games. However, what’s the fun in waiting to see what happens when we can make a few educated guesses, if you will, about how the season will unfold? So, with that, here are my five bold predictions for the 2014 Cincinnati Bearcats.
1) UC will not only win the AAC, but also go undefeated within the conference. The Bearcats garnered 17 of the 30 AAC first-place media votes (311 total) for two reasons: 1. they are a talented, well-coached football team; 2. they probably couldn’t ask for much better than what they received for their conference schedule. They won’t have to face the second favorite team to win the conference, UCF (296 votes), and will play both the third and fourth favorites, Houston (268) and East Carolina (262), at home. Of the rest of the teams on their conference slate, Tulane is the only team that achieved a winning record last season (7-6) while playing in Conference USA, and all six teams combined for a win/loss total of 22-51.
2) UC will beat the Hurricanes, but fall just short of taking down the Buckeyes. Look, this is a column of “bold” predictions, not the “boldest.” Miami (Fla.) is the favorite to come out of the ACC Coastal Division, but it faces serious questions at QB with the departure of two-year starter Stephen Morris and the torn ACL suffered by his heir apparent, redshirt senior Ryan Williams. The Hurricanes’ defense also struggled last season, finishing second to last in the ACC in total defense by allowing 426.4 ypg and 10th in the conference in scoring defense with 26.8 ppg. Inversely, the Bearcats had the most explosive offense in the AAC last season as they finished first in total offense by averaging 483.6 ypg, and second in scoring with 32.6 ppg.
As for the game against Ohio State: I truly think the Bearcats will take the Buckeyes down to the wire, and if this were a noon kickoff where we often see underdogs catch the favorites sleeping early in the game I might even like UC to win this one. However, I believe Urban Meyer knows the type of team Tuberville is bringing to Columbus and will be sure to have his own high-powered offense, featuring quarterback Braxton Miller, firing on all cylinders for this intriguing Week 3 matchup.
3) UC will be prominently featured in the 2014 AAC Postseason Football Honors. If the Bearcats do go undefeated in the conference and beat three of their four non-conference opponents (Toledo, Miami (OH) and Miami (FL)), it will be because of three key figures of this team: head coach Tommy Tuberville, QB Gunner Kiel and DE Silverberry Mouhon. So, I am predicting that Tuberville wins AAC Coach of the Year honors, Kiel will be the AAC Offensive Player of the Year and Mouhon will be the AAC Defensive Player of the Year.
Kiel hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since high school, but he was a highly-touted recruit when he signed with Notre Dame before transferring to Cincinnati and sitting out last season. Tuberville hasn’t yet committed to him as the starter yet, and there is always the chance that last season’s starter, Munchie Legeaux, wins the job if his knee recovers enough, but Kiel is currently listed as number one on the depth chart. It’s his job to lose, and I expect a big season from him with several talented offensive weapons surrounding him. Mouhon tallied 9.5 sacks last season, a number I expect him to eclipse, and has been named to the 2014 Ted Hendricks (top DE in the nation) and Rotary Lombardi award watch lists.
4) UC will earn an at-large bid to one of the non-playoff major bowl games (Peach, Fiesta, Orange or Cotton). Winning the AAC and finishing the regular season 11-1 won’t be enough to get the Bearcats into contention for one of the four College Football Playoff spots. That being said, a berth in one of the other four major bowl games would still be quite the accomplishment. Fellow AAC member and defending conference champion UCF received an invite to the Fiesta Bowl last season, and was able to beat the Big 12 champion Baylor Bears, 52-42.
5) UC will win its bowl game to end the season with 12 wins and a top-10 ranking in the AP poll. Hey, UCF did it, right? But seriously, Baylor was a 17-point favorite against UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last season, making the Knights the biggest underdog EVER in a BCS bowl game. I would expect a similar point spread for the Bearcats, as they would likely be facing one of the first few teams to be left out of the four-team playoffs. And that’s precisely why I like them to win in that scenario. UC would be playing to prove they, and the AAC, belong with the “big boys,” and the almost-good-enough-power-conference team to be named later who gets matched up with the Cats would rather be elsewhere.
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