Every year around this time I come up with BOLD predictions for the Angels in the upcoming year and so far, the bolder the better. These predictions aren’t meant to be realistic in nature(though they do end up coming to fruition 40% of the time), rather, they’re meant to open fans eyes about the possibilities that may arise during the regular season. Two years ago, it was prospect Hank Conger splitting duties with Chris Iannetta and Josh Hamilton hitting under 25 homeruns which were unexpected but came true. Last year it was Garrett Richards emerging as the best pitcher on the staff and the Angels going to the playoffs while the A’s were beat by the Royals.
(Disclaimer, while 40% of bold predictions have come true, that means 60% have not)
So without further adieu, here are your FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS
1. Drew Rucinski will be the Angels main middle reliever by July
This one is a little hard to define because middle reliever may have a few different definitions so I’ll elaborate. If we consider the 9th inning option the closer and the 7th and 8th inning relievers “setup” men, then the one out specialists and 6th inning options are classified as “middle relievers”. I believe that Drew Rucinski will transition from swing-man to reliever and supplant the likes of Ramos, Salas and Pestano as the Angels go to guy in the middle innings.
2. Albert Pujols will have his most productive season as an Angel
This will be Albert’s fourth year with the organization, it’s his age-35 season and he’s under contract for six additional years after this. Fine. But I believe 2015 will be his most productive of all the seasons between 2012-2022. Why? Health and comfort. In his first season, Albert was a black hole of offense for this first couple months of the season and still managed to hit .285 with 50 doubles and 30 homeruns. In his second season, Albert couldn’t run because of planter fascia, and couldn’t use his lower half during his swing because of balky knees. Last year, Albert was back, but his knees still weren’t 100% after his offseason surgery, but even playing at 80% he still managed to hit .272 with 37 doubles and 28 homeruns, which really isn’t bad at all. This year will be the closest the Angels will ever see to the Albert of old. He’ll be playing 1B more often because Cron is the backup there and no one wants to see that right now, plus Albert’s a marquee defensive first baseman. I envision Albert hitting .290 with 44 doubles and 33 homeruns to go along with gold glove level defense. I think he’ll be a 5+ win player.
3. David Freese will have the second best season of his career
Freese is headed into Free Agency after this year, not a bad time at all to turn in one of those “career years” players and fans talk about. That’ll be hard to do because at one point, Freese managed to hit 20 homeruns and bat .293. I don’t see that happening with David, but I do think he’ll be much better than he was last year. It was Freese’s first year with the Angels and in the AL, he knew he was being pulled late in games and his offense was simply nowhere to be found both at Angel Stadium and anywhere else in the months of April and May. Looking at his splits, Freese really isn’t that slow of a starter, so clearly adjustments needed to be made, and they were. In June and July he his .280 and .291 respectively, but more importantly the OBP that he displayed in St. Louis returned as he begun reaching base 37% of the time, which would’ve been good for second on the team. He had a “down month” in August but still managed to hit .250 with 8 doubles, but his offense returned fully in September when he hit .315 with 4 homeruns. I think David Freese’s second half showed he can still be quite a bit better than league average. I’m predicting Freese will hit .280/.350 with 30 doubles and 15 homeruns in 2015.
4. C.J. Cron will breakout in 2015
Understandably, Cron has had MANY doubters since he was drafted in the first round by the previous Angels regime. He couldn’t play catcher any more because of a torn labrum and thus couldn’t throw either, had a grueling knee injury in Rookie Ball, didn’t show the patient approach collegiate hitters typically have and didn’t hit as many homeruns someone with his type of power should. These are all valid reasons to doubt Cron’s ability to play major league baseball. Heck, even Garret and I at MWAH don’t fully agree on Cron’s worth. But I think 2015 will change a lot of minds, and my reasoning demands a deeper look at what he’s done in the minors, majors and in Arizona.
In AA, Cron only hit 14 home runs, but it’s important to keep in mind the environment was extremely pitcher friendly and he still hit 36 doubles. The batting average left much to be desired as he tailed off toward the end of the year but he also started walking more. Then in the post-season he came through and was the offensive force the Travs needed. He then went to the Arizona Fall League where he was the second best hitter in the league, closely trailing the Cubs Kris Bryant who many believe will be an all-star this year despite beginning the year in AAA. Cron started out in AAA last year, but putting a power hitter in the PCL is like putting a fish in the water. There isn’t much to glean from it other than to say Cron walked more in one month in AAA than he had at any point in the minor leagues. Then, in his 21 game stint in AAA after the all-star break, we saw his OBP rise over 40 points. Cron entered the Spring destined for a bench spot or AAA until Hamilton’s fiasco began. Cron saw an opening and ran with it, leading all of baseball in doubles and batting higher than anyone on the team not named Trout. More importantly, Cron’s at bats weren’t of the two-three pitch variety like Aybar’s, the majority of them were 5+ pitches, which the Angels organization preaches in the minor leagues. Cron was also seen using the entire field, knocking many of his extra base hits to the opposite field gaps. When Cron turns on the baseball, it doesn’t stay in the ball park and he’s shown plus-plus power to CF. Something we can also take from his minor league numbers is Cron’s ability to make contact.
When you put it all together, you have a power hitter that’s great at making contact, learning to work the count and use the entire field. C.J. Cron in his age-25 season will hit .280 with 35 doubles and 25 homeruns.
5. Alex Yarbrough will be the starting second baseman by August
I just don’t see second base being a good place for the Angels in 2015. Jonny Giavotella has had a nice Spring, he makes contact, he hustles and he’s an all-out type of player. He’s gritty. But I don’t see the success of his minor league career translating. He’s great at making contact, which he will for the Angels. But in AAA where his numbers are inflated, he hit more ground balls, less fly balls and less line drives than anyone that should be successful. When he gets a pitch on the inner-half, he can turn on it and hit line drives and fly balls into the gap, where many of his extra-base hits come from. But if pitchers throw him off-speed pitches and stay on the outer half, the best Giavotella can do is hit a ground ball up the middle. As for his defense, he tries hard and makes the average plays look difficult and the difficult plays look impossible. He just doesn’t have the range or glove defensively to be anything more than considerably below average.
The other second base options aren’t any more exciting either. Taylor Featherston figures to be on the big league team because he can play a decent SS, 2B and 3B as well as run a little, but he doesn’t have the bat to be a fully featured regular. Plus if Featherston did become the regular at 2B, that’d mean Josh Rutledge would be the utility infielder and he’s somewhere between awful and atrocious defensively at 2B, SS and 3B. Grant Green has been effectively removed from the 2B picture because the Angels don’t trust his defense, and they’ve moved him to LF, so he’s no longer a viable options. Rutledge may get the second shot at 2B if Giavotella falters, but as we’ve said, he isn’t a good defensive option there (neither is Giavotella) so all of Rutledge’s value would be tied to his bat, which hasn’t been appealing in the least.
That leaves Alex Yarbrough. Yarbrough wasn’t given a shot at the job mostly because he hasn’t played above AA but whenever he’s been in the game, he’s shown the ability to play at least an MLB average 2B, if not above average. At the plate, Alex has a good swing from both sides but is more effective from the left-side and is capable of hitting for average and spraying line drives into the gaps frequently. He doesn’t top the ball like Giavotella and has consistently posted higher than average LD% at every stop in the minors. It isn’t as if I expect Yarbrough to be a start at 2B for the Angels once promoted, but I do believe he won’t be a black hole like the others and will be the “least bad”. Once he’s adjusted to the majors we should see more success but that takes a while.
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