In a little less than one month, the 2014 incarnation of the Cincinnati Bearcats will take the field at Paul Brown Stadium to open their season against the Toledo Rockets. Tapped by the AAC media as the preseason favorites to win the conference, there is obviously a lot of hype surrounding head coach Tommy Tuberville’s football team as they began camp this week.
Last week I made five bold predictions for the Bearcats that would result in a highly successful, 12-win season. This week I’m trading in the optimism for a little skepticism as I examine five key questions facing UC in 2014.
1. Can Gunner Kiel Be the Answer at QB?
With 2013 starter Brendon Kay gone and Munchie Legaux attempting to return from a devastating knee injury suffered against Purdue last season, the quarterback responsibilities appear likely to fall into the hands of Gunner Kiel. By now, most know how Kiel got to Cincinnati—he was a five-star recruit from Columbus, Ind., committed to Indiana, switched to LSU, then enrolled at Notre Dame and FINALLY settled in Cincinnati as a transfer last season.
As a five-star recruit, his talent is clear. In April’s spring game, he led the first team offense to 24 first half points, completing 17-of-22 for 300 yards and an interception while also rushing for a two-yard touchdown. Kiel has plenty of talent and experience around him as the Bearcats return four of their top five receivers and their top three running backs from last season. While all of the above are positives for the Cincinnati offense, the most glaring negative is Kiel’s lack of experience as he has not thrown a pass in an actual college football game. While his spring game numbers were impressive and he has been taking the first team reps in camp this week, things are a little different on Saturdays when 11 guys in a different uniform are trying at all costs to render you ineffective.
Will Kiel live up to the hype and guide the Bearcats to the 2014 AAC title, and possibly farther?
2. Can They Replace Key Defensive Departures?
UC lost three all-conference performers from last season to graduation, and their top four defensive tackles. That leaves the interior D-line duties to an inexperienced bunch featuring returning contributors Brandon Mitchell and Camaron Beard, who appeared in nine and 10 games respectively, combining for 5.5 tackles, JUCO transfer Hakeem Allonce and a mix of underclassmen.
If defensive coordinator Hank Hughes and line coach Robert Prunty struggle to get success out of their interior line crop, it could negate the talent they have on the outside in defensive ends Silverberry Mouhon, Brad Harrah and Terrell Hartsfield. Despite losing key defensive leaders in MLB Greg Blair and S Arryn Chenault, Cincinnati has plenty of talent and playmakers at linebacker and in the secondary, starting with Senior SLB Nick Temple and sophomore S Zach Edwards, who finished second and third on the team in tackles last year.
Despite a relatively high level of talent scattered across this defense the question still remains: Can the Bearcats consistently generate pressure and stop the run with their front four, or will an inability to do so impact the overall effectiveness of the defense?
3. Can They Solve the 2013 Special Teams Struggles?
It is almost hard to believe how bad things were for the Bearcats in the kicking game last season, and even harder to believe they made it to 9-4 with how many points they left on the field. A senior this year, Tony Miliano struggled as a junior in 2013 as he made only seven of his 17 field goal attempts. Folks, that’s a shocking 41.2% rate of success. He made six of his ten attempts from the zero to 39-yard range, and just one of his seven tries from 40+ yards away. It wasn’t just Miliano who struggled either, as the Bearcats special teams unit found themselves in the bottom 10 in the nation in terms of field goal, punt and punt return efficiency.
The offense managed to mask some of these flaws with top 25 ranks in total offense, passing offense and offensive efficiency, but will Miliano and the rest of the special teams unit have a bounce-back 2014 season?
4. Can They Win in Paul Brown Stadium?
At the end of the 2013 football season, the university began a 15-month, $86 million renovation of Nippert Stadium, a project that makes sense considering it is the fourth-oldest playing site and fifth-oldest stadium in college football. Due to this, the Bearcats are playing the entire 2014 season at Paul Brown Stadium—home of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Since what many perceive to be the “rebirth” of the program when Brian Kelly took over as head coach in 2007, UC has been excellent in home games played at Nippert with a record of 34-7. The Bearcats have played four home games at PBS since 2002, posting a losing record of 1-3 in those games.
Despite the losing record, they have played well at their “home away from home” as each of the three losses was decided by four points or less against quality opponents (Ohio State, Oklahoma and West Virginia). Will UC be able to recreate the “college atmosphere” and draw enough fans to the jungle at PBS for a home-field advantage?
5. Can They Avoid a “Bad Loss?”
UC has won at least nine games six times in the last seven years, reaching double-digit victories in five of those seasons. What was one thing that prevented them from reaching that 10-win mark last season? An almost inexplicable 26-20 loss on the road to the South Florida Bulls, a team that posted a 2-10 record in 2013.
The Bearcats are highly likely to be favored to win in all of their games but two—at Miami (FL) and at Ohio State. I don’t expect it to happen, but they cannot afford to overlook either of their MAC opponents in Toledo (they lost to the Rockets on the road in 2012) and Miami (OH) leading up to the Ohio State game, or suffer a letdown in the Memphis game that’s sandwiched between the Buckeyes and Hurricanes on the schedule.
After that the Cats’ toughest road game left will be at SMU, as they host both of the teams on their schedule most likely to threaten their AAC title chances in East Carolina and Houston. A loss at home to USF would likely be more inexplicable than the one to them on the road last season, and road games against Tulane, Connecticut and Temple would all easily qualify as bad losses based on their 2013 records.
Can Tuberville and the 2014 Bearcats take advantage of an easy “on-paper” schedule and avoid a bad, season-altering loss?
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