Five Things: FSU-Florida

With a spot in college football’s first playoff just two wins away, Florida State puts its 27-game winning streak on the line this Saturday against arch-rival Florida. The 11-0 Seminoles have averted disaster on numerous occasions this season, but some are pointing to Florida as a potential stumbling block. The Gators beat FSU 37-26 in their last trip to Tallahassee and Florida State has not lost since.

Florida State easily defeated Florida 37-7 last season in Gainesville and in what will be the final game with the school for Florida head coach Will Muschamp, emotions will be running high. With everything on the line for the Seminoles, the Noled Out staff breaks down Saturday’s contest with “Five Things”:

1. On Florida

Mike Ferguson: It’s been another disappointing season for Florida as the Gators come to Tallahassee with a record of 6-4. Florida however, may be just a couple blunders away from being 8-2. Florida is led by its strong defense, which actually held the Seminoles to their lowest point total of the regular season last year. Offensively, Florida will rely on its ground attack of Kelvin Taylor and Matt Jones.

Jon Marchant: Florida State hosts the rival Florida Gators who are attempting to send off fired head coach Will Muschamp on a winning note by derailing the ‘Noles perfect season on Saturday. The Gators are solid on defense again this year, as they have been every year under Muschamp. They are slightly better on offense with the freshman Treon Harris under center replacing the much maligned Jeff Driskel. The Gators are a power-running team, and struggle offensively in the passing game.

2. Players to Watch for FSU

Mike Ferguson: For Florida State, the guys to watch in this contest will be the Seminoles’ two inside linemen Derrick Mitchell and Eddie Goldman. Goldman has had a stellar season and Mitchell has been a pleasant surprise. With Florida looking to pound the football, Florida State must be stout along the line of scrimmage. To be successful defensively, FSU will need to minimize the Florida rushing attack and that starts up front.

Jon Marchant: The players to watch this week is the entire defensive front seven for the second week in a row. They must contain the Gator rushing attack, which ran for over 400 against Georgia earlier this season. Linebacker Terrance Smith is not 100 percent and Ukeme Eligwe has been dismissed. Matthew Thomas was great against Boston College but was ejected for targeting and is suspended for the first half of this game. Look for linebacker Reggie Northrup and star Jalen Ramsey to be very involved in stopping the run and for each to have big games.

3. Biggest Concern for FSU

Mike Ferguson: The thing that should concern Florida State most in this one is obviously the Florida ground attack. The Gators went for over 400 yards rushing against Georgia and former FSU defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. The Seminoles struggled last week in slowing down Boston College’s potent attack which finished with 239 yards on the ground. If Florida State can force Treon Harris to have to be a passer on Saturday, that should bode well for the Seminoles as stopping the run is absolutely imperative.

Jon Marchant: The biggest concern in this game is injuries. FSU must get to the nearly month-long break both undefeated and without any other major injuries, particularly on defense. If Florida State can find ways to win the next two games without further injury, it could stand a chance in college football’s first playoff.

4. X-Factor for FSU

Mike Ferguson: The X-factors for Florida State in this one will be the two safeties not named Jalen Ramsey. The safety position will be key this week in assisting in the ground game and both Nate Andrews and Tyler Hunter will be called upon to come up and make stops. At some point, the Gators will likely try to catch FSU off guard with the deep ball and not getting sucked in on the run fake will also be important for Florida State’s talented corps of safeties.

Jon Marchant: The X-factor in this game is FSU junior defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. If he has a great game setting the edge on defense the Gators should struggle to score and the ‘Noles could roll.

5. FSU Wins If…

Mike Ferguson: For Florida State to win this one, it must first and foremost stop the Florida rushing attack and get the Gator offense off the field quickly. While making freshman Treon Harris a passer could bode very well for the Florida State defense, the FSU offense must find a way to protect the football and convert third downs. The Rashad Greene-Vernon Hargreaves III match-up will certainly be one to watch, but the Seminoles are most successful when quarterback Jameis Winston is able to spread the ball around. Hitting a few big plays on that side of the ball wouldn’t hurt either.

Jon Marchant: FSU will win if it can limit the turnovers and thus start fast on offense. Look for Florida to use a similar game plan to Boston College’s by running a lot and shortening the game by limiting possessions. This reduces the margin for error. Since Florida State has clearly established a pattern this season, I expect the Seminoles to struggle for three quarters and hopefully pull away in the fourth.