Five Things: FSU-Louisville

Florida State and Louisville were each ranked as the first College Football Playoff poll was released Tuesday night. The Seminoles were ranked second as they are in both human polls while the Cardinals rounded out the poll at #25. The Thursday night contest in Louisville will be a critical game in terms of the ACC as FSU visits Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium for the first time in 12 years.

For Florida State, Thursday’s contest has been circled as the toughest remaining game on the schedule. The Cardinals are looking for their biggest win of their inaugural season in the ACC and third over a top 5 opponent in nine years. To break down the prime time match-up, the Noled Out staff brings you, “Five Things”:

1. On Louisville

Mike Ferguson: In its first season as a member of the ACC, Louisville enters Thursday’s contest with an overall record of 6-2. The Cardinals rank fourth nationally in fewest points allowed, but have not been very good on offense which is rare for a Bobby Petrino coached team. Louisville got a huge lift last week however, with the return of wide receiver DeVante Parker and if the Cardinals can stretch the field against FSU, they should have a chance.

Jon Marchant: Florida State plays the Louisville Cardinals in primetime Thursday night. Louisville has a fantastic defense, perhaps a top 10 unit which will certainly test quarterback Jameis Winston and the Seminole passing attack. Quarterback Will Gardner leads the Louisville offense. Louisville is a hard team to figure out at this point in the season. They have good wins, but have not always played teams at their best, getting Brad Kaaya in his first-ever start at Miami and lost to a Clemson team that did not play Deshaun Watson. This team also only scored 20 points against hapless Wake Forest and trailed in the second half.

2. Players to Watch for FSU

Mike Ferguson: The players to watch for Florida State this week are in both the offensive and defensive backfields. In Florida State’s last contest, the Seminoles took a huge step back in the ground game and if running backs Karlos Williams and Dalvin Cook can take some of the pressure off of quarterback Jameis Winston, that would go a long way in helping FSU improve to 8-0. On defense, cornerbacks Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams will have their hands full against a very good receiving duo in DeVante Parker and James Quick for Louisville. If Florida State can hold its own in that match-up, the Seminoles should feel very good about their chances.

Jon Marchant: The players to watch this week is the FSU offensive line. If they can give Winston time to throw and are able to execute in the running game, FSU should roll. Backup turned starter Ryan Hoefeld has struggled some against older, more physical interior defensive linemen. Unfortunately, Louisville is very good up front and could easily give Hoefeld trouble.

3. Biggest Concern for FSU

Mike Ferguson: Florida State’s biggest concern on Thursday will be stopping the pass. Louisville has not been stellar by any stretch of the imagination this season on offense, but the receiving duo of Parker and Quick look to be able to make things tough on the FSU secondary. Ronald Darby has not been sharp at cornerback this season and the Seminoles have already allowed 300 yards passing on three occasions. It’s not likely that Louisville will sustain many drives, but the Seminoles have allowed big plays all too often this season and Parker is certainly a guy who can make them.

Jon Marchant: The biggest concern in this game is turnovers and whether or not this offensive line can make the right calls in pass protection, whether they can give Winston enough time to throw, and if they can help out the passing game by gaining positive yards on standard downs. If FSU consistently falls behind the sticks, they will struggle to score. In a game that could come down to one possession, one turnover in this game could mean the difference between being in the first-ever College Football Playoff and winning the disappointing Orange Bowl as a consolation prize.

4. X-Factor for FSU

Mike Ferguson: In terms of an X-factor for Florida State this week, look to tight end Nick O’Leary. O’Leary has again been one of the better tight ends in the country, but has not been nearly as consistent as he was a season ago. After a quiet effort against Notre Dame, look for him to be more utilized this week against a good Louisville defense.

Jon Marchant: The X-factor for this game is Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker and Louisville running back Michael Dyer. Louisville’s offensive line isn’t very good, but if these players find room against the ‘Nole defense, they could change the course of the game very quickly.

5. FSU Wins If…

Mike Ferguson: For Florida State, Thursday’s game will come down to taking care of the football and not giving up big plays. Offensively, Florida State must avoid turning the ball over against Louisville’s opportunistic defense which includes the nation’s leader in interceptions in Gerod Holliman. The Seminoles have allowed a lot of big plays this season in the passing game and Louisville certainly has the guys to stretch the field, but if FSU can force Louisville quarterback Will Gardner to be methodical, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals having an overly productive offensive evening.

Jon Marchant: FSU will win if it can execute on defense: squeeze the pocket and force the immobile Gardner to make mistakes. They also need to be disciplined in shutting down Dyer to force Louisville into passing situations such as 2nd and 3rd and long. On the other side, the FSU offensive line must simply step up to the challenge and open some holes to help out the elite Seminole passing attack. Florida State needs to protect Winston and give him enough time to carve up the Louisville secondary. If the Seminoles can do that, they should win.