A rivalry will be renewed on Saturday night as third-ranked Florida State takes on a Miami team playing its best football of the season. Florida State has had the better of Miami in recent years, winning the last four meetings and seven of the last nine. #3 FSU outscored seventh-ranked Miami 20-0 in the second half of last season’s game in Tallahassee to run away with a 41-14 victory.
Florida State can clinch a trip to the ACC Championship with a victory while also virtually eliminating its rivals to the south from competing for a conference championship. The Seminoles have won the ACC in each of the last two seasons and can run their overall winning streak to 26 games. For some insight on Saturday’s match-up, the Noled Out staff gives you “Five Things”.
1. On Miami
Mike Ferguson: At 6-3, this might not be your father’s Miami Hurricanes, but of late, they’ve been pretty good. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya has shown rapid maturation during Miami’s three-game winning streak and he has plenty of weapons around him. On the defensive side of the ball, Miami is really starting to get it together as well. During the Hurricanes’ winning spurt, they’re outscoring opponents by an average margin of 24 points.
Jon Marchant: Florida State travels to play the Miami Hurricanes this Saturday in a game critical to Florida State’s playoff hopes. Miami is 6-3 (3-2 ACC) and is on a three-game winning streak. On offense, first-year freshman starter Brad Kaaya is a good young quarterback and has fast wide receivers in Phillip Dorsett and Stacey Coley but the focus is all on stud running back Duke Johnson. The offense is explosive and picks up chunk yardage but goes as Duke goes, and as such is predicated upon staying ahead of the chains on 1st and 2nd down. Kaaya is good, but when the offense gets behind, it struggles in passing situations and on consistently executing methodical drives. On defense, the ‘Canes are much improved from a year ago. They are athletic on the back end and the front seven is solid if unspectacular. By far the best player on defense is senior linebacker Denzel Perryman, who has an NFL future. Miami is much less talented overall than FSU as only four or five players for Miami would start for FSU. Florida State also holds the advantage in coaching.
2. Players to Watch for FSU
Mike Ferguson: For Florida State to win this game, its most daunting task will be to slow Miami running back Duke Johnson. That means the Seminoles will need a stellar showing from their front four, particularly juniors Mario Edwards Jr. and Eddie Goldman. Edwards and Goldman must be downright dominant as they have been at times this season. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Jameis Winston must find a way to eliminate turnovers. He has five interceptions over his last two games — the most during any two-game stretch of his career.
Jon Marchant: The players to watch this week is the entire defensive front seven. As indicated, it is extremely important to contain Duke Johnson on first and second down and force Kaaya to make accurate downfield throws against future NFL corners Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams. In the front seven, defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. and defensive tackle Eddie Goldman will play well, but FSU needs Derrick Mitchell and the linebackers to have excellent games. If not, it could be a long night. Head coach Jimbo Fisher said this week that many of the teams FSU has played this year have specifically waited to break tendencies until they play the ‘Noles, forcing some of the early deficits until Florida State can adjust. The defense must be well prepared to avoid falling into a hole again on the road.
3. Biggest Concern for FSU
Mike Ferguson: Falling behind early has been a theme for Florida State and in a contest that many believe should have FSU on upset alert, the Seminoles can ill-afford another big early deficit. With the exception of the BCS National Championship, Florida State never trailed in the second half last season, but has already trailed at halftime on four occasions this year. In a heated rivalry, asserting its will early could prove huge for Florida State.
Jon Marchant: There isn’t one single biggest concern for this game. As FSU tries to make a playoff push down the stretch, it must continue to get healthy. Many of the linebackers are back from injury, but seemingly everyone on the team is either nicked or banged up. Also unmentioned is the fact that six teams on FSU’s schedule have had bye weeks before playing the ‘Noles and this week is no exception. This is in addition to many teams spending time in the offseason specially preparing for the ‘Noles and only a few mistakes could derail a perfect season, and indeed Florida State has already had several close brushes with defeat. Those mistakes and early turnovers must stop if FSU has any hope of beating Miami.
4. X-Factor for FSU
Mike Ferguson: This week’s X-factor will be turnovers. Florida State has been far too callous with the football over the last couple weeks. Of late, Florida State’s Jameis Winston is forcing throws and giving opposing teams short fields. On the other side, Miami’s Brad Kaaya has done a tremendous job taking care of the ball in recent weeks. If the Seminoles are to avoid being upset, they can’t allow the Hurricanes to have a significant advantage in the turnover department.
Jon Marchant: The X-factor for this game is Mario Pender. It seems as if he sat versus Virginia last week to make sure he is fully healthy for this game. With Dalvin Cook nursing a bruised hip, Pender will be counted on to change the scoreboard. Florida State needs to start fast on offense, and part of that will be taking some of the pressure off of quarterback Jameis Winston by using Pender as the catalyst for a running game that can eat clock and keep Miami off the field.
5. FSU Wins If…
Mike Ferguson: For Florida State to top Miami, the Seminoles must protect the football, spread it around and find a way to stop Duke Johnson. Jameis Winston should look to get a number of players involved early on including seniors Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary. Finding a running game would be a huge plus for Florida State, but stopping Miami’s will be even bigger. Brad Kaaya is an emerging star, but the Seminoles would much rather have Kaaya be tasked with beating them than Johnson.
Jon Marchant: FSU will win if they can limit the turnovers. When FSU doesn’t turn the ball over, more often than not it scores points and becomes extremely difficult to beat. On defense, the Seminoles must slow down Duke Johnson and force 2nd and 3rd and long situations. The secondary must force Kaaya to check the ball down into the 5-10 yard range and force Miami to stay patient and execute their way down the field, something opposing offenses have not been able to do this year against this FSU defense.
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