Second-ranked Florida State will look to run the nation’s longest winning streak to 25 games on Saturday as the Seminoles host the last visiting ACC team to win at Doak Campbell Stadium, Virginia. Virginia is 4-5 on the year, but has already doubled its win total from 2013.
With a victory and some help from around the ACC, Florida State could actually clinch a third straight ACC Atlantic division title this week. The Seminoles have not defeated the Cavaliers in Tallahassee since 2006. On how FSU can make that happen this week, the Noled Out staff brings you, “Five Things”.
1. On Virginia
Mike Ferguson: Virginia comes to Tallahassee on a three-game losing streak, but has still overachieved to this point in 2014. The Cavaliers have played a lot of close games and even have a victory over a Louisville team that Florida State had to rally late to defeat. Virginia still plays an old school style of football that focuses on defense and the ground game.
Jon Marchant: Florida State plays the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend following a comeback win over Louisville. Virginia is 4-5 (2-3 ACC) and has struggled this year, but is noticeably better than last year. According to the advanced metric F/+ from Football Outsiders, the Cavalier offense ranks 65th so far this year, the defense ranks 26th and the special teams come in as the 85th best unit in the country. Basically, the defense is solid and can keep Virginia in some games, but an anemic offense and a special teams unit that does a poor job of controlling field position, is simply too much to overcome against good teams.
2. Players to Watch for FSU
Mike Ferguson: Defensively for Florida State in 2014, no one has played better than junior defensive tackle Eddie Goldman. Goldman leads the Seminoles in tackles for loss and sacks and will be facing a Virginia team that likes to pound the football with Kevin Parks. Offensively, Florida State will hope to see more of the Jameis Winston that showed up in the second half against Louisville, minus the twisted ankle, than the first.
Jon Marchant: The players to watch this week is the linebacker group. There has been an insane number of injuries across the team and the linebacking corps in particular as seven scholarship linebackers were hurt and unable to play against Louisville last week. They are all healthy and back this week, with the exception of Ukeme “Markuss” Eligwe, who was dismissed from the team on Thursday for a violation of team rules. The overall play of the linebackers has been poor this year, especially in coverage. An offense like Virginia’s is the perfect recipe for some confidence.
3. Biggest Concern for FSU
Mike Ferguson: The biggest concern for Florida State this week will be starting fast. The Seminoles have had to rally from a halftime deficit on four occasions this year including last week against Louisville. FSU needs to get off to better starts on each side of the ball to fully implement its game plan and use its array of talent.
Jon Marchant: The biggest concern in this game is more injuries. Florida State has been bitten by the injury bug in a major way this year and simply cannot afford any more injuries to the defensive line or the linebackers if it wants to make it to and compete for the first College Football Playoff.
4. X-Factor for FSU
Mike Ferguson: Most know how talented the Florida State secondary is, but it has received little help this season from the pass rush, which will be a huge X-factor for Florida State this week. Freshman defensive end Lorenzo Featherston has quieted down in recent weeks while junior Mario Edwards Jr. has not lived up to his All-American hype. Demarcus Walker and Chris Casher have also had very quiet seasons.
Jon Marchant: The X-factor for this game is running back Mario Pender. As it’s hard to see Virginia pulling an upset here, look for Pender to bounce back from an ankle injury he suffered a few weeks ago. He may very well be the Seminoles’ best back if he can continue to improve in pass protection. If he’s a full-go, he’s fun to watch and gives the Florida State offense yet another weapon.
5. FSU Wins If…
Mike Ferguson: The remedy for a Florida State victory this week seems very simple: protect the football and stop the run. Florida State turned the ball over three times last week giving Louisville short fields and easy scores. If Virginia is to stay close in Tallahassee, it’ll need similar results in the turnover category. With an inconsistent duo at quarterback, the Cavaliers will look to pound the football. Defensively, Florida State needs to gear up to stop that and force sophomore quarterbacks Greyson Lambert and Matt Johns to make critical third down throws.
Jon Marchant: FSU will win if they can take care of business. Florida State’s season so far has been a tale of two halves, and if that trend were to continue against Virginia, it might be time for Seminole fans to think about readjusting their expectations come playoff time. Look for a healthy Seminole team to finally come out of the gate firing on all cylinders against an overmatched Virginia team and put this one away early under the lights of Doak Campbell Stadium.
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