College football’s first-ever playoff will take place at the Rose Bowl Thursday as defending national champion Florida State puts its 29-game winning streak on the line against second-ranked Oregon, led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. The Rose Bowl will pit Mariota against Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston in just the third match-up ever of Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks.
Oregon comes in with a record of 12-1 as the Ducks avenged their only loss of the season last time out with a 51-13 victory over Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship. For the second straight season, the third-ranked Seminoles are the lone remaining unbeaten team with a record of 13-0. To break down the highly-anticipated showdown, the Noled Out staff brings you “Five Things”:
1. On Oregon
Mike Ferguson: Oregon is a talented football team that does a lot of things well. The Ducks are balanced offensively as Marcus Mariota is having one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback. Since struggling against Washington State and losing to Arizona early in the season, Oregon has been much improved on defense.
Jon Marchant: Florida State plays the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl this Thursday in the first game of the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Ducks are led by recent Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who excels at running the Oregon spread attack. Oregon is a very good team this year, and will be the best and most complete team Florida State has played this year, coming in at #2 in offensive F/+ and 13th in defensive F/+. The big story here is the loss of All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who was by far the best defensive back for the Ducks. His loss means redshirt freshman Chris Seisay will have to see significant snaps.
2. Players to Watch for FSU
Mike Ferguson: For Florida State, the guys to keep an eye on are the leaders on each side of the ball. Quarterback Jameis Winston must be on his game for the Seminoles to have a chance in this one. After a Heisman Trophy campaign as a freshman, Winston has been much more turnover prone this season. Defensively, Jalen Ramsey is the heart and soul of the Florida State defense. Ramsey does just about everything for FSU and against an explosive Oregon offense, he’s going to need to make plays.
Jon Marchant: The player to watch this week is Matthew Thomas, and to a lesser extent, the FSU linebacking corps. They have been somewhat of a liability in pass coverage this year, and one would expect Oregon to try and exploit that. Another way they might attack the ‘Nole linebackers is with Mariota on the read option, using it to take Mario Edwards Jr. out of the play; it will be up to Matthew Thomas and the rest of the corps to correctly read and react. If they can do their part to keep contain on Mariota and force him to throw from the pocket, the ‘Noles should like their chances.
3. Biggest Concern for FSU
Mike Ferguson: For the Seminoles, the biggest concern is all the things Oregon does on offense. Mariota is capable of winning games with his arm and legs while 230-pound freshman Royce Freeman is the physical type of runner that has given FSU problems this season. Oregon will also go play action off of zone-read looks and busted coverages have been too common for the Seminoles this season. Florida State must stay disciplined and force the Duck offense to be methodical.
Jon Marchant: The biggest concern for FSU is turnovers. The Ducks are going to score points. Every turnover in this game will be magnified because of the pressure the offense will be under to keep pace with the Oregon offense. If the defense can do their job and are able to hold Oregon to around 30 points, even a single turnover by the ‘Noles could leave them unable to keep up.
4. X-Factor for FSU
Mike Ferguson: The X-factor in this one for Florida State may be special teams. Special teams played a huge role in Florida State’s last trip to Pasadena and very well could again. Having Roberto Aguayo doing the kicking is a big, yet often overlooked advantage for FSU. Being able to generate something in the return game could potentially alter the outcome as it did last season against Auburn.
Jon Marchant: The X-factor in this game could be anybody. Jameis Winston is anything but overlooked, although he is the second most important factor in this game. He must play well, and he must play well early. Florida State will not be able to make up a two or three touchdown deficit in this game. The Duck secondary is ripe for exploitation with the loss of Ekpre-Olomu, and Winston must capitalize.
5. FSU Wins If…
Mike Ferguson: For Florida State to win this game, it will need to win the early downs defensively. As Timmy Jernigan was last season, Eddie Goldman needs to be a force at defensive tackle. If Florida State can force Mariota and the Ducks to be methodical and find some way to get pressure, that would be huge. Offensively, FSU should be able to score against Oregon, but taking care of the football is a must. Finding a way to keep Oregon out of the end zone and protecting the ball are the two biggest keys to a trip to Dallas.
Jon Marchant: Florida State will win if they can do three things. First, it has to protect the football. Secondly, the Florida State defensive front seven must contain Mariota in the pocket. If they lose contain and Mariota is able to scramble around and make first downs with his feet and complete passes to move the chains on broken plays, the ‘Noles will lose. If they can force Mariota to stay in a dirty pocket and make tough throws, they should force some mistakes. Lastly, the Seminole offense must capitalize on their opportunities, especially in the red zone. They settled for far too many field goals in the second halves against Florida and Georgia Tech, which won’t cut it against this Oregon team. Do those three things, and the ‘Noles should be on to Dallas.
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