By the end of tonight it will be just short of a miracle if the Saints are not 1-5. They’re playing the favored, undefeated and division leading Atlanta Falcons. Remember when we used to own them? Man, those were good times. The last time these two clubs played in New Orleans the Falcons won 30-14. I attended that game, unfortunately, and it was the final nail in the disappointing 2014 season. My heart and my gut are both telling me the Saints will lose this game and yet so much of me still wants to believe. If they were ever going to put it together just one time this season I would pick this game. The opportunity is pretty great when you think about it. The Falcons are 5-0, they’re cruising their way to the playoffs, their schedule is soft and each week of increased success will make us feel more and more sad. But imagine that 1 next to their name in the loss column belonging to us. Imagine weeks of twitter banter hanging that over the head of unsuspecting Falcons fans. Imagine the annoyance that despite a fun and exciting season, they couldn’t beat the lowly and pathetic Saints. This season can still be fun if the Saints sweep the Falcons. This is step one of that process. I picked the Saints to win this game 28-27. Don’t ask me how or why, but that’s what I’m banking on. You can mock me and laugh as soon as the game is over when I’m dead wrong. Here’s five things I’m looking for:
1. Does the Saints defense even get a stop?
The Saints can’t really stop the run and people are even talking about Devonta Freeman like he might be an MVP candidate. Julio Jones is on pace for about a million yards and 50 touchdowns. Needless to say my Falcons fantasy football hard boycott policy has not been a smart move this season. The Falcons are 3rd in points scored and 4th in total yards. The Saints, on the other hand, have finally found their rightful home as the 32nd ranked defense. Ralph predicted the Falcons would put up 63 points and it’s not out of the realm of possibility. It could easily be 21-0 with 8 minutes left in the 1st quarter if the Saints start slow. So let’s just maybe start with one stop and go from there?
2. How does the offensive line perform?
The Falcons’ defense might be improved Dan Quinn but they still have a ways to go. They’re tied for 13th in yards per carry given up (3.9) which is not bad but they only have 6 sacks which is tied for 29th in the league. Even the Saints’ anemic pass rush is better with 7 sacks. The Falcons cannot rush the passer that well, that said that didn’t stop them last year when they were the league’s worst pass rushing team from sacking Brees 5 times in the Superdome. Ralph made a joke that the Saints were a cure all game for teams. They certainly were for DeMarco Murray and his miserable 2015. I wonder if they will be the cure to the Falcons pass rush this week? They did give up 5 sacks against the Eagles. The good news is Jahri Evans will return and Terron Armstead (who’s been limited in practice this week) may return too. Having both veterans back would be a huge boost.
3. How do the Saints cover Julio Jones?
Julio Jones is playing despite a tender hamstring. The big question is how do the Saints cover him? He’s been utterly unstoppable so far this year. The Saints have to slow him down and force Atlanta to find creative other ways to beat them (hey Atlanta, you can probably do anything and win, but I’d recommend throwing to the tight end – it always seems to work). But I am curious to see how the Saints cover Jones. Do they trust Delvin Breaux or Keenan Lewis on an island against him? Do they stick Brandon Browner on him and give him constant safety help? Do they play more zone and test Matt Ryan’s accuracy? I’m not really confident in any strategy working that well because the Saints have no pass rush and the Falcons’ line has player really well, so I’m assuming Ryan will have all the time he needs to survey the field. But it will be interesting to see what Rob Ryan draws up to try and slow down Jones.
4. Who gets Marques Colston’s touches?
Colston looks almost assuredly out for this game with a separated shoulder. Joe Morgan was re-signed again to fill in for him as the 4th receiver on the roster, but I’m curious to see where Colston’s usual targets get spread around. We know Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will get a lot of targets, but this almost has to mean the Saints get Brandon Coleman and C. J. Spiller more involved in the passing game, right? Or maybe the Saints start throwing more to their tight ends? It will be interesting to see how the ball gets spread out but I’m advocating for Spiller getting more touches. 6 is not enough for him to make a difference. And if somehow Morgan is relied on more than Coleman in this one, then we’ll know Coleman has officially been relegated to afterthought status.
5. Superdome magic?
The Saints winning this game can only happen if something crazy happens. Voodoo hex, Superdome magic, home cookin’… whatever you want to call it. The crowd needs to get loud and involved. The Saints are not going to win this game on talent or X’s and O’s. It has to be some supernatural occurrence. But for some reason I have a decent feeling about this. I remember a few years ago the Saints ruining the Falcons’ perfect season and I just feel like the deck is so stacked on paper, the Saints might just come out on national TV and shock the world at home behind the support of their home fans. No one expects the Saints to win this game and the Falcons are ultra confident. Or maybe I’m wrong and Atlanta puts up 50 in a blowout. But imagine how fun it would be, just this once. Because we won’t taste postseason fun this year, this has to suffice as our fantasy playoff game.
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