Gameday! Back when the Saints were 3-4 and played at San Francisco for a chance at .500, then actually won that game to get back to 4-4, we all felt like there was a new lease on the season. At 5-6, the Saints are presented with another chance to get back at .500 hosting the Lions. Interestingly, the all time series is tied at 11-11-1, so whoever wins this game will carry the historical edge until the next time they play. The margin for error at 5-6 is much smaller than 3-4, of course. They’ve lost two games since that point and the Saints have come very close to filling their playoff acceptable loss quota. Another loss from here on out puts a severe dent at any chance of playing past week 17. So they’re all pretty much “must wins” from here on out. But getting back to 6-6 would give the Saints their third chance at a winning record (0-0 and 4-4 games both were losses). To make the postseason, the vast majority of the time, you need a winning record. Here’s what I’m looking for in this game:
1. The enormous special teams advantage the Lions have
These two teams are actually pretty similar. Average defense that occasionally surprises and sometimes struggles. Elite passing offense. A lot of close games that come down to the final 2 minutes. The one glaring difference in my opinion? Special teams. Major advantage to the Lions in that department. Despite an elite punter in Thomas Morstead, I’d call the Saints special teams borderline horrible. The Lions, on the other hand, are excellent top to bottom. Sam Martin is one of three punters in the NFL that has a better net average than Morstead. Matt Prater is 21 of 24 this season on field goals with a long of 58. Wil Lutz leads the NFL in kicks blocked. Andre Roberts is 11th in the NFL in kickoff return average yards and 3rd in punt return average yards. He’s already run back two punts for scores this year. The Saints have returned a kickoff past their own 30 one time this year. On paper, the Lions should utterly dominate the Saints on special teams. Roberts is explosive and the Saints are a disaster covering kicks. I’m going to watch closely any time there’s a special teams “phase” in this game. I expect this will swing the game in favor of the Lions and they will be able to expose the Saints severely to level the playing field if they’re trailing or in trouble. On special teams this really feels like a David vs. Goliath matchup. Football Outsiders ranks the Lions 4th in the NFL in overall special teams, and the Saints are 28th WITH Morstead. It’ll be interesting to see if the Saints can surprise us and not get completely owned in this phase. I’m also interested in finding out who gets a shot at returner in the musical chairs game. A full game without a major screw up earns someone the job at this point.
2. Brandin Cooks response
555 yards and 49 points against the Rams were nice, but they came without Cooks getting a single target or touch the entire game. Reports are he’s a little bothered by it. I expect the Saints to respond by going to him more and I expect him to respond by having a monster game. After the game Michael Thomas just had, the Lions are unlikely to employ the same strategy of “taking out Cooks” and forcing Brees to go elsewhere. Based on how productive that turned out to be for the Saints against one of the best defenses in the NFL, I highly doubt the Lions will go that route. Thomas may command more attention with the recent stat lines he’s put up, too. This should be a more open game for Cooks and I’m expecting him and the offense/scheme to respond.
3. Scoring on the Lions defense
The Lions are as middle of the road as it gets on defense. 15th overall in yards, 15th overall in scoring. But while giving up only 21.6 per game is pretty good when you have a solid passing offense – they’ve only given up 17 points per game over the last five games. They’re on a really good stretch defensively, giving up a high of 20 points during this run. No surprise they’re 4-1 during this stretch. Now granted they played the Redskins, Texans, Vikings twice and the Jags during this period – none of those offenses can hurt you like the Saints in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Saints just finished pouring 49 on the mighty Gregg Williams at home. This won’t be as easy as we assume to just light up the Lions defense, but if the offense plays as good as they have at their peak I have no doubt this recent run the Lions are on will be quickly forgotten.
4. Matt Stafford in the 2 minute drill
The Lions are 7-4 with every single game being decided by 7 points or less. That means every game they’ve played has come down to a final possession and the outcome was decided by one score. Based on how this season has gone for the Saints, it would be naive to expect anything different in this one. A big part of why the Lions are 7-4 and have had good fortune in the majority of these close games is A. good special teams and B. Matt Stafford playing the best football of his career. When Stafford gets into the no huddle 2 minute offense, he’s at his best. There’s a reason he’s labelled as one of the best clutch passers in the league. The defense will likely have to make a play inside of 2 minutes in the 4th quarter with the game on the line against one of the best in the business.
5. Dare them to run
The Lions have no running game. They’re 30th in the league in rushing yards per game and tied for 25th in yards per carry. They barely even try. If I’m the Saints, I keep the three safety look the entire game with Jairus Byrd, Kenny Vaccaro and Vonn Bell on the field. Don’t even bother bringing a 3rd linebacker in the game. In fact, I’m fine with them playing with one linebacker for extended periods. Give yourself an extra blitzer and/or cover guy and just basically concede that if they stay patient and commit to the run – it might work. The Lions are too impatient to stick to it in my opinion.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
