As I write this I have no clue who won the game between the Browns and Falcons, but you will know by the time you read this. If by some miracle the Browns won (which I don’t expect) this will be an opportunity for the Saints to reclaim first place in the division. If the Falcons won, then this feels like a must win to stay in contact for a possible playoff spot. There’s no denying at this point, the Saints are a team in real trouble. Despite the early season woes on the road we still had the invincibility at home thing to hang on to. Now the Saints have lost two straight home games after previously straightening their record back to 4-4 and a loss here should would feel like the final death blow on the season. Losing three straight games in the Superdome would hurt very badly. That’s exactly why I’m expecting the unexpected. That said, here are five things I’ll be looking for:
1. Drew Brees cementing his legacy
Drew Brees is 0-3 in his career against the Ravens. The Saints have also won their last 12 games at home in prime time. Something has to give. The Ravens are the only team in the NFL that Drew Brees has never beaten. He’s even beaten the Saints when he was with the Chargers in 2004. Only two quarterbacks have beaten all 32 teams in NFL history and those are Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. Brees will have a chance to join them. The Saints won’t play the Ravens again for 4 years unless it’s in the Super Bowl. Based on that, unless Brees changes teams or is still playing for the Saints four years from now (he’d be 39), this may very well be his last shot at beating the Ravens. Don’t think for one second that he doesn’t know that and don’t think for one second that this isn’t important to him. I expect a monster game from Brees where he always excels, in prime time at home. This win would mean more to him than 5-6 and first place in the division. Based on what Brees has done for the Saints, I’d love to see the team win this game for him and his legacy.
2. Who starts at free safety and how do they play?
I personally think the starting free safety is down to Marcus Ball and Pierre Warren. Either way I can’t say I’m comfortable, but it will certainly be worth keeping a very close eye on. You can bet Joe Flacco will test them early and often. Expect the deep ball to come their way and expect their tackling be tested. I’m both nervous and curious about how that will play out. I’m not expecting great results but maybe a star will be born. Last time an undrafted rookie named Pierre started for the Saints it turned out pretty good, so there’s that.
3. Any chance Elvis can leave the building?
I’ve asked a couple Steelers bloggers I’m tight with if the Saints had any shot against the Ravens. The answer from both was the same – their pass rush can be scary, but their secondary is very poor. Based on that, I’m hopeful Brees can exploit them passing. The Ravens are tied for 11th in the NFL in sacks (just 3 ahead of the Saints in total sacks), and by far the main culprit is Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil has 10.5 of the team’s 25 sacks, so containing him on obvious passing downs is critical. The bottom line is this: the offensive line has to hold up in pass protection. If they give Brees an opportunity to make plays, the offense will be able to make some things happen. If the offensive line under performs, then I give the Saints close to no shot at winning – because we know the defense is spotty.
4. Welcome back Pierre! No not you, Warren, I’m talking about Thomas.
PT is back and will play (listed as probable). The big question is then what that does to the running back rotation. Obviously Mark Ingram won’t see as many touches, but does it become a 50-50 rep type deal, or does Ingram still see the majority of the touches? How much PT is involved in his first game back will be interesting. I sense that because the Saints want to slow down Dumervil’s pass rush, PT might be used more in pass blocking to help that effort. It’s also hard to run on the Ravens, who only give up 3.4 yards per carry this season, so Ingram may be featured less in the gameplan than usual.
5. Can the Saints stop the run?
Surprisingly Justin Forsett has been incredible this year filling in for Ray Rice. He has 721 yards rushing at 5.4 yards per carry. On paper he should gash the Saints. As bad as the Saints defense has been, though, I still have faith in their ability to stop the run. Cam Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Curtis Lofton, Brodrick Bunkley, Parys Haralson etc… those guys are all still healthy. So while I’m sure we’ll see poor plays by the Saints’ secondary and a heavy dose of maddening 3rd and long conversions, maybe we can at least limit it to that. Yes we expect the Saints’ pass defense to be bad and by all accounts it will be. It’s not a given the run defense has to be horrible too, though. At least they’ve shown up and played well this season at times. The goal here is to make the mismatch when the defensive unit is on the field one dimensional. If the Ravens are running at will, too, then the Saints can’t do anything to stop them. At least give yourself a chance to get off the field by limiting those 1st and 10 carries to 3 yards or less.
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