Football season is here! Like really this time. All the posturing, predictions, anxiety and pipe dreams ends because we now get to experience the reality of Saints games starting today in Glendale, AZ. The Saints still remain surrounded by an enormous number of questions. We know C. J. Spiller, Keenan Lewis, Jairus Byrd and Dannell Ellerbe are probably all missing this game. We also know this will be Carson Palmer’s first official game back from the devastating knee injury last year that doomed the Cardinals’ fantastic season to that point. Here’s five things I’ll be looking for:
1. Does Carson Palmer show any rust?
Palmer has looked pretty rough so far in his return. His preseason stats, which were the first games he’s played post knee surgery, were 15-33 for 268 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions and a 58.6 quarterback rating. It’s just preseason but that doesn’t justify the enormous contract they gave him. He completed just 45.5% of his passes and was sacked 5 times. That’s getting sacked 8.7% of the time he drops back to pass. Now, incredibly small sample size in meaningless games, but we’re hoping it will carry over at least through week 1. Defense is a major concern for the Saints and if the Saints are facing a weak offense with a rusty quarterback that could help them get off the field. In fairness he only played limited amounts in 3 games and looked fine against the Chiefs and Chargers. It was really the Raiders game were he played miserably bad. So we’ll see.
2. Do the Saints get any pass rush?
The Cardinals offensive line is a big question mark and I just mentioned the sack statistic of how often Palmer got hit in preseason. The Saints, conversely, showed almost zero ability to get to the passer in preseason. Something has to give. We’ll get a look of the pass rushing package of Cameron Jordan, Hau’oli Kikaha, Kasim Edebali and Bobby Richardson or something like that for a full game. Unless Jordan returns to 2013 form or Kikaha goes gangbusters I think this will be a problem area all season long. And for me it’s less about a total sack number and more about how much they are disrupting Palmer’s timing, getting in his face and affecting his performance. Hopefully the defensive line can show us something against a weaker opponent up front.
3. You mad, Breaux?
Delvin Breaux will start in place of Keenan Lewis, who needed hip surgery. But in coverage you’re often only as good as your 3rd and 4th cover guy. The problem with Breaux moving up is the domino effect that also moves up Damian Swann and…? I’m assuming Kyle Wilson is the fourth corner right now. So I’m very curious to see how Breaux holds up in his first career NFL start, but I’m also curious to see what the depth looks like behind him. With Lewis and Byrd both missing the secondary is banged up and the Saints will only be able to cushion that blow if Breaux is half as good as Saints camp junkies say he is.
4. I was promised a better offensive line. Max Unger going to do that all by himself?
Is Tim Lelito really a net positive over Ben Grubbs from last year? I’m not convinced of that at all. I think we can all agree Max Unger, if healthy, is a huge upgrade over an injured and aging Jonathan Goodwin. But besides that we’re looking at the exact same players. Terron Armstead, Zach Strief and Jahri Evans. And even if you’re going to throw the “yeah but Armstead will be sooo much better this year” there’s the counter of “yeah but Evans is already declining and Strief soon will too”. So is this offensive line really THAT much better? Having Andrus Peat for depth sure is nice but he’s not starting at the moment. I do think Senio Kelemete and Peat give this team more depth than a year ago, for sure, but I still wonder how dominant this line can be with two changes, with only one I’m convinced is an upgrade. It’s a big upgrade, though, and based on what I saw in preseason and camp it only served to further my estimation that Unger is a serious force. But if Drew Brees is going to play better, stay healthy and cut down on the turnovers we’re all counting on improved line play to help that along. If that’s going to happen it’s largely going to be on the shoulders of Unger playing as good as we expect him to. And hey, if Lelito does play better than 2014 Grubbs that won’t hurt either.
5. Hocker is kicking? OMG HOLD ME.
Zach Hocker was outperformed by Dustin Hopkins in training camp. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who was paying attention disagree with that statement. Hocker made this team because he hit a couple 50+ yarders in preseason and Hopkins turned in a bad performance in the final preseason game. So Hocker rode late momentum combined with slightly better performance in the live games to make this team. But I just feel like Hocker is the kicker less because he OWNED IT from start to finish and more because Hopkins BLEW IT despite having the job in his grips. And that combined with Hocker’s resume makes me extremely nervous.
(Theoretical conversation/Hocker Q&A)
What’s Hocker’s history in the NFL?
Oh, he’s never kicked in the NFL.
OK fine, I’ll take preseason stats.
In 2014 with the Redskins he went 2-3 with a miss from 30-39. This preseason with the Saints he went 4-5 with two makes from 50+ and one miss from 50+.
Ok that’s better recently. What about college?
He made 77.2% of his field goals including a dismal 11 for 18 (61.1%) as a Junior in 2012.
Oh my God, hold me!
It’s ok. He went 13 for 15 (86.7%) as a Senior.
Phew, much better. But can we get a bigger sample size? 15 attempts is kinda low.
Nope, you can’t.
He does have a very strong leg, this much I can attest to. But when your offense just lost Jimmy Graham, you just spent the preseason stalling in the red zone, and your defense has the potential to be a disaster – you can’t afford a roller coaster situation at kicker. Do you remember that lack of trust and pit in your stomach every time Garrett Hartley came up to kick? Yeah well at least at first it’s going to be even worse with Hocker. I just hope he can perform at a decent level. Average would be fine. Above average would be fantastic.
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