I’m always excited for Saints football but i’d be lying if I didn’t say the sting is completely taken out of this one. I still really want the Saints to win week 17 at Atlanta for obvious reasons, that’s like the 2016 season Super Bowl for me at this point, but I could kind of care less about these next two. I have a fundamental problem rooting for my team to lose, even if it involves a higher draft pick, but I’m not jacked up if they win either. Seattle’s win on Thursday eliminated the Cardinals from the playoffs, too, so I don’t think their fan’s mindset inside the stadium will be much different. Any good moments will be immediately re-framed with the “too little too late” disappointment. So I feel like this column is in some ways more valuable than usual, because anything we’re “looking for” has an eye towards next year now. You have to dig deep to find purpose and meaning in this game. Here’s what I’ll be paying attention to:
1. Is the Drew Brees slump just a blip on the radar?
0 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That’s the run Brees is on in the last two weeks. It’s been beyond horrible from him. The playing calling, lack of a run game, drops and poor offensive line play have done him no favors… but Brees himself has been horrendous. At this point he needs to have a good performance if for nothing else than to shut people up and re-confirm that he’s fine. If he ends these next 3 games playing in similar fashion – then a real narrative and concern is created that he’s finished and not capable of leading a team to the playoffs in 2017. If he plays well, though, this narrative goes away pretty quickly. I expect Brees to respond and play much better. He’s too good to stay on this track. I think a good performance against a good defense goes a long way towards squashing criticism/concern.
2. How many guards do the Saints need?
With Terron Armstead on IR, we no longer have to worry about this lineup shuffle madness. The line is Peat-Kelemete-Unger-Evans-Strief for the end of the season. Lelito will come in if Unger gets hurt again, or if someone on the interior has to step out. I think Peat can still be penciled in at guard next season – and I feel good about Armstead/Strief/Peat being the “tackles” next year. Peat can play guard and the Saints can remain three deep at that position if something catastrophic happens. At guard, though? I’m not sure they’re one deep next year. Assuming Peat plays there until a tackle goes down, a bunch of questions remain. Is Landon Turner ready? Kelemete will stay, I assume, but isn’t he just a luxury backup? And are the Saints going to bring back Evans and Lelito? My gut tells me probably not. I think the Saints need to invest heavily in a top notch guard, and/or maybe draft one high. These last three games are about identifying talent as much as anything else, and the big question for me is whether the Saints need to overhaul their line with two new starters at guard next year or just one. Armstead is always an injury question mark, and Strief doesn’t have much time left – so I’d almost rather assume Peat is playing tackle next year. My gut tells me the Saints need two guards this offseason. Maybe the answer is to draft a guard/tackle swing guy. The only way that’s put in question is if Evans and/or Kelemete play out of their minds in these last three games – enough so that they are clearly envisioned as a starter in 2017. So their play is under a microscope.
3. Is Wil Lutz improving?
Since the hiring of Kevin O’Dea I actually do feel like I’ve noticed a difference in Lutz’s lift off. His kicks seem to have a higher trajectory on average. Quietly Lutz has been perfect on kicks for the last three weeks, going 13 for 13 on extra points and field goals combined. O’Dea was hired three weeks ago, so Lutz hasn’t missed a single kick since he’s been on board. Making extra points is basically a field goal these days, too, being from 33 yards out. So going 13 for his last 13 is really solid. If he can end the season on this run, I think O’Dea’s contribution speaks for itself. I detailed the job O’Dea has done so far and I think that puts him in a good position to take over special teams for 2017 if he continues to show strides in the kicking game. Lutz’s job is on the line for 2017, too, and he can go a long way towards limiting what the Saints do in the offseason in terms of competition by not missing a kick the rest of the year.
4. Which guys are worth keeping?
While a big investment and long term commitment to Nick Fairley makes me nervous, I think the Saints have to do it. He deserves it based on the way he played this year. The rest of the free agent pool is a laundry list of vets on 1 year deal: Tim Lelito, Roman Harper, Jahri Evans, Paul Kruger, John Kuhn, Darryl Tapp, Jamarca Sanford, Tony Hills, Tim Hightower, Kyle Wilson, Sterling Moore, John Phillips, Shiloh Keo, B. W. Webb, Sam Barrington, Michael Mauti, Chris Banjo, Brandon Coleman, Kasim Edebali, Justin Drescher, Travaris Cadet… a few of these guys are on IR but there’s not a ton of exciting names on there. Still, these guys represent more than 20% of the roster if you include IR and the practice squad. They’re all basically auditioning for 2017 jobs with the Saints these next three weeks. I kind of have my mind made up on a lot of these guys – who I want back and who I want gone – but things could still change. The guys I’m most curious about these next 3 weeks? Coleman, Edebali, Moore, Webb, Banjo and Drescher. I think I want all five players back but what role they deserve in 2017 will be envisioned based some on how they close out 2016. This also extends to guys they may cut. Byrd, Ellerbe and Strief have contracts that represent savings in 2017 if the Saints decide to part ways with them and how they play these next three weeks to play a part in the decision of whether or not to keep them.
5. Draft slot.
I’m not openly rooting for a loss here. I’m not going to be broken hearted if the Saints lose, either, though. The Saints are currently slotted to pick 9th in the 2017 NFL draft. Top 10 pick baby! So, just saying, if they happen to lose… that could improve. The teams ahead of the Saints are the Chargers, the Panthers, the Jets, the Titans, the Bears, the Jags, the 49ers and the Browns. Of those teams, the Jets are 4-9, and the Panthers/Chargers are 5-8. Those are teams the Saints can realistically “catch” if they lose out. So if the Saints lose… it’s worth scoreboard watching the Jets, Panthers and Chargers. We want all three to win. The Saints could potentially pick as high as 6th if they lose out. The Titans are picking for the Rams, but with the Rams losing on Thursday they’re now 4-10 and will be tough to catch. I don’t see them winning again.
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