Gameday! The 2-4 Saints are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-3 Colts. On paper these two teams are very up and down and rely on their playmaking quarterback to carry them. This has track meet/shootout potential because both teams have really poor defenses. But it could also be low scoring because neither offensive line is coming close to getting it done. So who really knows what to expect? Remember how bad the NFC South was last year? Well, the Colts are playing in that division this year. The AFC South is a trash heap beyond recognition and so they’re firmly in control of it at 3-3. That’s the silver lining here, the Saints need this game much more than the Colts do. The Colts can probably coast to 8-8 and win this division as bad as the Texans/Jags and Titans are. Here’s what I’m looking for:
1. The offensive line is back at full strength (maybe)! How do they hold up?
Please please please let the Saints get through this game without Tony Hills having to enter. Nothing against Tony, it would just mean Terron Armstead and Zach Strief get through a game unscathed. Armstead and Tim Lelito are both practicing this week and said they expect to play. So it looks like we’ll have the season opener starting 5 of Armstead-Lelito-Unger-Evans-Strief in action. I’m excited to hear this and I’m hopeful it bodes well for the offense, particularly against a defensive front that I don’t view as intimidating. The Colts were counting on Robert Mathis, Trent Cole and Bjoern Werner to combine for a decent pass rush this year but so far they’ve totaled just 1 sack combined. This line needs to buy time for Brees but more importantly we need to see a running game. This leads me to…
2. In keeping with the line playing well, how do the Saints run the ball?
I could have tied this into #1 but I think it deserves it’s own category. 81 yards on 32 carries against Atlanta. The Saints best rushing outputs this year are 104 yards and 103 yards. Only 2 games over 100 and just barely at that. A pretty sad display. Disappointing when you consider they brought in a running game coordinator and coach from Arkansas who had a tremendous amount of success installing a zone rushing scheme in college. It’s clear the Saints are locked in on giving Ingram 15 carries (at least 20 touches w/ catches), Khiry maybe 7 and Spiller is lucky to get 10 total touches. That seems to be the distribution but it begs the question why not mix it up when the success from the backs been poor? I’m also surprised as much as the Saints lack playmakers why they don’t lean on their backs more. Clearly that’s the best talent this offense has. I’d love to see a breakout game from Spiller or Robinson, or even see Ingram finally go over 100.
3. How does Andrew Luck fare against the Saints defense?
Ralph Malbrough joked that the Saints were everybody’s “get right game” after the debacle in Philadelphia. And while he might revise that after the Falcons game, Andrew Luck has been both injured and awful this year. He’s completing only 57.2% of his passes, already has 7 interceptions in just 4 games played, and has a QB rating of 75.0 which would be a career low. He’s playing as poorly as Peyton Manning. I see that playing out one of two ways. Either he continues to struggle or he lights up the Saints and “gets right”. I have this dreaded fear that the Colts will move around T. Y. Hilton a ton pre-snap in an effort to try to get him singled on Brandon Browner and immediately go deep which would be – boom, touchdown. The Saints are in their rightful place as the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. They can’t stop anyone. Frank Gore should run at will on them, Luck should have plenty of time to pick them apart, and I expect the Colts to score a lot of point. Maybe, just maybe, Luck stays stuck in this funk he’s in. I know his offensive line is poor and his arm is injured. I’m not too optimistic because he’s just coming off by far his best game of the season against the Patriots, but we’ll see. The Saints have fallen into some turnovers of late and if the rash continues it could be an equalizer on the road.
4. Kai Forbath everyone!
The new kicker is usually pretty good for a while. Remember how awesome Martin Grammatica, Garrett Hartley, John Kasay and Shayne Graham all were when they first started kicking for the Saints? It took them a while to start missing. My hope is Forbath will start his career with the Saints more like them than say Olindo Mare, Taylor Mehlhaff or Zach Hocker. Sadly Hocker was wildly inconsistent, especially lately missing 3 of his last 4 kicks. It was time for a change and I’m hoping Forbath will be steady. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his performance.
5. Do the Saints continue to use the tight end?
I’m curious if Ben Watson’s monster performance was a scheme/matchup one game type thing that Sean Payton saw on tape, or if this is a direction the offense can count on a little bit? Before Watson went nuts on the Falcons, Josh Hill actually caught 2 of his 3 receptions on the opening drive and I wondered if he was finally going to get more usage in a game. So I’m curious if 13 receptions combined between the two is something we can count on moving forward. That would make a big, big difference for this offense. Hopefully they can play well again.
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