The Saints are 0-2 and by the end of today, barring a complete reversal of fortunes, they’ll be 0-3. I have a hard time seeing many scenarios under which the Saints will come away with a win in this game but they play the games for a reason. I saw Drew Brees in his prime with a playoff Saints team lose at home to a Cardinals squad led by Max Hall. They also lost to a Colt McCoy led Browns team in the Superdome that same year. I’ve seen the Saints lose on the road to Kellen Clemens and A. J. Feeley with peak Brees, too. The point is it can happen and that’s what I’ll be rooting for. But I am far, far from optimism. It’s going to take a monster performance from someone we don’t expect. But even when the Saints are bad, I’m still interested in things to watch for. Here they are:
1. How does Luke McCown play?
I would be very careful with how I use McCown in this game. It looks like Jahri Evans won’t play, either, so all of a sudden your guards are Tim Lelito and Senio Kelemete (or maybe McGlynn). Either way, not good. So the line is banged up and that’s what McCown has to go to battle with. Unfortunately the Panthers are also stout against the run so it might be hard to pound the rock all day. McCown has close to elite arm strength so if anything he’ll be able to make some throws that even Brees struggles with. That part is exciting for shots downfield but with the lack of protection I’m very concerned McCown will panic into critical mistakes. The Saints are going to have to be conservative offensively early and hope their defense rises to the occasion. If McCown can make the throws to keep the chains moving on 3rd and short, though, that will go a very long way. But going through this game without a turnover offensively is monumental for the Saints. It always is, sure, but with the lack of firepower sans Brees it’s even more pronounced.
2. How do the Saints fare against the run?
The Saints give up 4.3 yards per carry which is tied for 8th worst in the NFL so far. That’s actually not as bad as I imagined, but so far they’ve faced average to bad running teams. The Panthers average 4.1 yards per carry which is tied for 13th best. I was hoping they would be worse but this is just going off of two games. Granted Carolina’s yards per carry would be much worse without Cam Newton’s keepers. Jonathan Stewart is the starting back and besides the occasional give to Mike Tolbert, he’s the primary runner. Through two games Stewart has 118 yards rushing at 3.4 yards per carry. This is a team the Saints can potentially stop at the line of scrimmage. This is the key to having any chance whatsoever. If the Panthers can’t run the ball, then it’s all on Cam Newton’s arm/legs on passing downs. That doesn’t guarantee anything but we know Newton struggles with accuracy and we know he’ll be without his two best receivers in Benjamin and Cotchery. For the Saints to have a shot this needs to be an ugly and bad football game. If the Saints can limit this bad Carolina offense’s effectiveness, then McCown won’t have to do as much to win. It all starts with stopping the run. If you’re going to lose, you want to lose making Newton beat you on 3rd and more than 5.
3. Redirecting season goals to development.
I said after the loss at home to Tampa that it was time to start adjusting the goals for this 2015 season. A playoff trip is not happening. I view the Saints as in the middle of a rebuilding process that may or may not include Brees as soon as 2016. With that in mind, I’m looking to the future and clearly the future belongs to players like Kenny Vaccaro, Damian Swann, Andrus Peat, Delvin Breaux, Brandin Cooks, Brandon Coleman, Hau’oli Kikaha and Stephone Anthony. There’s a few others I could list but out of all of these I’m most focused on Kikaha and Anthony. I really want to see them develop this year. If the Saints stand any chance to transform their defense to help the team have chance at success we really need to go into 2016 confident that both Anthony is a heat seeking tackling playmaker and that Kikaha is a double digit sack guy. Their progress is critical to the welfare of the franchise. I can’t stress that enough.
4. Intensity and tackling.
I probably don’t need to remind you how things went the last time these two teams played. Carolina came into the Superdome and dumptrucked the Saints 41-10. You’ll also recall the brawl that ensued after Cam Newton scored a touchdown and did his antics in the end zone. That was as embarrassing of a performance as I’ve almost ever seen from the Saints at home. The tackling and effort was an utter embarrassment. Carolina ran for 271 yards on the ground, including 155 from the aforementioned Stewart. The Saints offense couldn’t muster anything with two back breaking turnovers early followed by a string of 3 and outs. If I’m Sean Payton, I’m cutting up all the game film from that game and showing the players how much the Panthers mocked them, embarrassed them, and ran over them like roadkill on the interstate. I expect the Saints to play desperate, angry and motivated. Anything less would be a big disappointment at this stage. If you can’t get your team up for a game like this then there is no hope for the season. Win, lose or draw I really want to see a physical and emotional effort from the Saints.
5, Special teams has to improve.
As bad as the offense and defense were at times against Tampa, the special teams took the cake. They were bad in every single aspect. God forbid Thomas Morstead fail to get a touchback on just one kickoff cause it’s coming out and going back to the 50. The Saints return game was non existent, their coverage was even worse, they missed two kicks and even Morstead shanked a punt from 9 yards deep in his own end zone. Oh, and by the way, Marcus Murphy failed to field a fair catch and it almost resulted in a turnover inside the 10. Top to bottom that was one of the most pathetic special teams outings I’ve ever seen. I don’t know that I’ve seen college teams screw up top to bottom that badly. As much as you guys criticize Sean Payton, Rob Ryan and others, I don’t see how Greg McMahon can’t be at the top of the blame bloodthirsty fan’s list. If this defense is going to have a tough learning curve with youth and if the offense is decimated by injuries to key players (Jahri Evans is looking to be out too and Brandin Cooks has missed some practice this week), then the Saints can’t afford to also have a dumpster fire on special teams. They have to at least be “fine”. I’m not expecting a kick return for a score, a 57 yard field and two 70 yard punts inside the 5 here but I’d settle for it not being utterly dominated.
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