Happy Football Friday on a Thursday, Followers. Hope you’re having a terrific week.
As for me, well, things couldn’t be more busy. But outside of the fact that I have no time to write anything about the Cougs, I wanted to take a few minutes to write down a few thoughts because, frankly, I am pretty darn excited about this week’s game against Sonny and Cher..
And the reason for that excitement is as follows:
1) CAL is good, but my sense is that CAL is not nearly as good as they think they are. In other words, this game seems like Let-Down city for them, especially when you factor in that they’re ranked for the first time in five years, they’ve been on the road for two weeks, AND they have a game next week that will have national playoff implications if they start 5-0.
2) CAL’s defense–although quite opportunistic–remains nothing to write home about, at least not in my book. Remember that CAL failed to hold any conference foe under 31 points ALL of last year. And while their performance against Washington can be viewed as encouraging (although a few of those 5 turnovers appeared unforced), they are still yielding an average of 33 points a game against Power 5 teams. In other words, there’s good reason to believe that we can move the ball and score a lot of points.
3) CAL’s pass protection appears mortal, which gives me some hope that Ivan McLennan, Jeremiah Allison, and Hercules can get to Goff periodically and knock him around a bit.
4) We had a bye week to get healthy and prepare for a foe that is a lot like us (which allows the scout team to do what they did in practice for nearly a month and potentially allows us to install a few new sets that could confuse in the first half).
5) Grinch has shown a few packages that might make us multiple in a good way (I am especially thinking about the Dime package used against Rutgers that put Pippins, White, and Molton on the field at the same time).
6) The game is not in Pullman.
7) We have a legit chance to win next week even if we do not win this game (This is important because while we need to play well this game, this game is no longer an end-all-be-all ).
So, while I do think that CAL is a taco or two better than us, this feels like a game that we can steal. And if we can do that, not only will we have our third three game winning streak in the past 10 years, we will also put ourselves in prime position to do what was unthinkable just a few weeks back: Finish 6-6 and go to a bowl.
The Keys to Winning
A few days ago, my good friend and mentor Jacob Thorpe suggested that in order for WSU to win Saturday, the Cougars needed to score 35 points, get at least two takeaways, and not allow any special teams touchdowns (who says no one reads this blog?). So, given all that, we’ll start with the points question first.
Will WSU Score 35 Points in this game? Answer: YES
(Frankly, this is the only stat that matters. Win or lose, the one thing that WSU needs to do in Year 4 of Leach is move the ball and score a boat load of points. Do that, and we’ll be fine moving forward. And if not……….)
Will Luke Falk throw for Over 400 Yards? Answer: Yes, I think he throws for 467…or 468
Will WSU rush for over 100 Yards? Answer: Yes, I think we run for 124 because Harrington is fast and because Wicks has the swagger of Chris Jackson.
Will WSU +1 or better in turnover margin? Answer: NO. I think we’re going to be minus 1.
Final Prediction: For me, this game–and perhaps the season–comes down to one simple question: Is WSU’s offense any good?
Because if it is, then we will win this game. And frankly, if this Cougar offense is as good as I think it can be, then I think we’re going to win next week too because that Oregon secondary looks WSU 2014 bad.
Of course, the flip side of all of this is that, outside of a few GOLDEN moments against Rutgers, our offense has looked nothing like what we should see from a Leach coached team, especially in Year 4. And so, if the offense that showed up against Wyoming shows up on Saturday, then we are going to get run off the field to the tune of something like 51-17.
But I’m going to be optimistic about us based on my belief that this team will rise to its potential whenever it plays against a team that it is not supposed to beat. WSU shocks the Golden Bears 41-37 setting up a show down in Eugene next week for second place in the Pac-12 North.
Other Games:
Oregon 38 Colorado 31: This just in: Oregon’s defense is god awful. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Buffs stole this one at home. But, here’s to thinking that Oregon finds a way to pull this one out much like they did last year @WSU, setting the stage for a wild shoot-out next week in Eugene (provided again that our offense is any good).
Arizona State 35 UCLA 28. Arizona State is terrible right now and UCLA has got it going on. This just feels like its gonna be a “UCLA lost to Arizona State?” type game.
Stanford 41 Arizona 10. No Scooby + No Solomon = Not a good time to play Stanford
Bama 28 Georgia 24 It’s going to be raining in Athens which will help negate the one thing Bama doesn’t do very well:Throw the football. Henry and that defense go off and the Tide get a season saving win.
West Virginia 41 Oklahoma 38. Stoops loses to a team he should beat and no one outside of Norman cares. God I hate the Big12.
Notre Dame 38 Clemson 29 Here’s to thinking that the Golden Domers are pretty darn good….And frankly, the Pac-12 needs them to be good in order to get a team in the playoff (Stanford and/or USC are going to have to beat a top 10 ND team in order for the Pac-12 champ to get in).
Okay, that’s all the time I have for today. Enjoy the weekend’s games and BEAT CAL.
All for now. Go Cougs!
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