Well folks we have passed the halfway point of the season and the Cougs are sitting pretty at 4-2. This is about as good as even the most optimistic forecasts you could find for the Cougs before the season started, so we have plenty to be excited about. Now we finally get a conference home game as the Beavers roll into Pullman with a 4-1 record and one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Its a night game, its Dads’ Weekend and the expectations are for a crowd that is plenty energized and sporting some swank new capes.
Just like last week, both teams see this game as a major measuring stick for where they can expect to end up in the standings. The Pac-12 North is a 2 ½ team race and the loser here will likely be hanging out with Cal in the basement, even though they’ll get dibs on the bean bag chair. The Cougs are coming off what has to be their most reassuring win of the season while the Beavs are coming off a much needed bye where they were able to get a lot of key players healthy and back in uniform. So who has the edge here? Vegas thinks this one is a toss-up. Lets see what the blog fathers think, shall we?
Longball’s Locks:
When looking at this matchup and trying to summon all my clairvoyant powers a few things jumped out at me right away.
Thing number 1 – On Saturday, Oregon State will have the only dependable threat that has been nearly unstoppable so far; their passing game with Mannion and Cooks. These guys have dominated in the early going which culminated in a tough overtime road win at Utah.
Thing number 2 – Oregon State is finally close to healthy again after their bye week. They are returning some starters to the offensive line as well as starting running back Storm Woods. Mannion and Cooks have been doing much of their damage without these guys, so that could give you pause, but…
Thing number 3 – Oregon’s States schedule has been absolutely horrible. Not only that, they haven’t really looked that good against said horrible schedule. Sure, they passed their only real test @ Utah, but if they passed their only real test, why do they have a loss? Because they got beat at home by FCS Eastern Washington. They also needed a double rainbow miracle to barely pull out a win over San Diego State who also sports an FCS loss this season.
So what do I derive from these things? The Beavs just have not shown me enough for me to pick them in this game, plain and simple. They are a terrible defensive team, but have escaped with some wins by feasting on the mistakes of opposing QBs. Their 3 picks against Travis Wilson were instrumental in their only win of note, at Utah, and a late pic-6 sealed the deal for them against a dreadful San Diego State team. Meanwhile, Connor Halliday’s interceptions are trending downward at just the right time. We have also found a red-zone running game that takes a lot of pressure off Connor in that half of the field and should be able to exploit how terrible the middle of the Beaver defense is. Last week Connor was throwing against a team that had very few actual bodies suited up in the secondary, so perhaps just one interception in 67 pass attempts isn’t quite as impressive as it sounds. But despite their ball hawking ways, the Beaver defense just isn’t that much better. The Beavers will bring a good pass rush from the defensive ends so we need the Fullington switcheroo at right tackle to continue to look better as it did against Cal. I am going to go ahead and say that our continued improvement in protecting Halladay, our having the better defense by far, plus the home field advantage is enough for us to overcome a healthy and rested Beaver squad and take one more step towards bowl eligibility…
Cougs 48, Beavs 35
USC 28, Zona 25
Ed Orgeron injects just enough southern fried energy into the Trojans to keep a Wildcat team with no passing game in check.
UW 44, Oregon 42
I really think Sark did his team a disservice this week by focusing so much on his childish gripes about the Stanford game. It also seemed like the Husky nation was more focused on our Coug flag at their Gameday then on the Ducks. Despite all that idiocy, the guys in that locker room know exactly what week it is. They also know how to go blow for blow with a really tough opponent for a full four quarters and this time they will do it at home. Oregon’s streak of 50+ point games is impressive as hell, but it hurts them here as they do not quite have what it takes late against a complete Husky team on a mission. Game of the week is decided by a Husky field goal as time expires and a tsunami of Zima flows down The Ave.
Stanford 33, Utah 24
Travis Wilson has been a bit erratic, at times he looks unstoppable and at others he almost single handedly takes his team out of games they should have won (OSU, UCLA) with interceptions. Against a physical, experienced Stanford defense that got their pride a bit wounded last week, I think we may see a bit more of the not-so-good Travis Wilson. Make no mistake, though, the Trees will have to earn this one.
ASU 45, Colorado 21
Colorado is already showing signs of life this season on offense, but they have a ways to go everywhere else. ASU may not be the force a lot of us expected them to be but they will roll the buffs at home.
UCLA 55, Cal 33
Cal can move the ball, no doubt, but they still have a very error prone frosh at QB and almost no defense to speak of. That all adds up to a laugher in the Rose Bowl.
Enjoy the games folks, and Go Cougs!
SeanHawk Sez:
Happy Football Friday on Thursday Cougs, as we continue to wish the best to you and yours. Me, I'm feeling pretty damn good about our Cougs lately, ala the douche in sunglasses at his computer gif for this week. Things are humming along right now and it's a fun ride. Hey, WE 4-2 Y'ALL! Put us on the TV!
But I do have to admit that I was a little nervous during the second half of the Cal game. My old pal Sutra can attest that when Cal scored on the long TD pass to make it 35-22, and there was so much time left to go in the game and all that, that I was getting nervous. But the Cougs would keep control and Cal wouldn't score again, and we come away with a rather comfortable victory on the road in conference play
And that's what it's all about, something I keep saying over and over again but I'll go there once again right now – after where things have been the last several years, I keep telling myself the same thing, and that's to just enjoy the ride. There have been some miserable moments watching and writing about this team the last few seasons and so now that we're finally relevant again, the last thing I'm going to do is wring my hands and over analyze something I have no control over anyway! Where's the fun in that? And I told myself repeatedly during the crushing run of loss after loss that if/when we do ever get back to relevancy/interesting football/whatever, I'm going to enjoy every second of it. And that's why I've seemed so overly positive this season and not nearly as critical as years past, and it's because I told myself I would do exactly what I'm doing now – ENJOYING THE RIDE. So there.
On to the picks for this week:
Arizona @ USC – The Lame Kiffin nightmare is now over and I think we see SC bounce back here under Ed Orgeron. And I am still not sold on AZ's QB situation – AT ALL. SC 24, AZ 21.
Oregon @ UW – Call me crazy but after UW barely lost to Stanford, I was ready to call a UW upset. But one thing that doesn't sound good to me anyway is how Sarkisian seems to be holding on to last week a little bit, and much of the talk the first few days was a coach who was looking in the rearview at what happened in Palo Alto and not so much about the #2 Oregon Ducks. I don't know how much that really trickles down to the players or not, and while they are mad and hurting after what happened down there, it's not like I'm suggesting that UW isn't focused fully on Oregon right now. But it seems like in the past, when you hear coaches dwell a little too much on the prior week, well, sometimes you see it play out on the field the next week and they don't quite perform as well. I do think UW and Oregon is a fascinating matchup and it's like the first one to 100 plays will win it. UW's crowd will be insane, but Oregon's style of offense is so damn fast that it might be hard for the crowd to really have an impact on what Oregon does between plays? It's still amazing to watch Oregon play, how fast they snap the ball after a play ends. There just isn't time to stand around and let that crowd noise swell up from the rafters. Meanwhile UW's D matches up better against Oregon than at any time in the last decade, as the Huskies have speed and athleticism, especially with a guy like Shaq Thompson as a natural safety playing linebacker. They aren't as big as they used to be but they are faster and more athletic on defense than I have seen from UW in a long time. And who knows what Oregon will get out of D'Anthony Thomas, if anything? But I think over 4 quarters the Quack Attack is just too strong, and UW's new offensive scheme plays right into what Oregon wants to do, and that's play as fast as they possibly can! For the faster you play, the more possessions the opponent will get over the full course of the game, and that's bad news for anyone playing the Ducks right now. Oregon wins it, 49-38.
Stanford @ Utah – ANOTHER Utah home game?? Have they even left the state yet this year?? (Note – they haven't, their lone road game at BYU). Stanford lays the wood as the D turns up the heat on Travis Wilson, last seen throwing 6 INT's vs UCLA. It won't be any easier this week, and in fact it will be considerably tougher against the Cardinal D that eats mistake-prone QB's for breakfast. Stanford in workman-like fashion, 35-20.
Colorado @ ASU – Sun Devils bounce back huge after a disappointing loss to a not-very-good Notre Dame team last week. But the questions remain as to where exactly is the ASU defense, now 84th in the nation in points allowed?? Still, they have far too much for the Buffs. ASU 38, CU 17.
Cal @ UCLA – As bad as Cal looked in stretches last week? They seem to keep getting worse by the day as injuries continue to mount. Now after losing one many in the Bay Area had circled as a "Must Win" vs. the Cougs, they limp into Pasadena. UCLA will score, and score often as Brett Hundley continues to torch opposing defenses. UCLA 55, Cal 14.
Finally, OSU @ WAZZU! And the Cougs FINALLY get a conference home game, you know, in Pullman. The Dad's weekend crowd will be all kinds of jacked-n-pumped for this one, and did you hear that the first 7500 fans through the gates get a CAPE!?!
It's just….weird. And yet also cool and hilarious all at the same time. I guess it's part of an ensemble type giveaway the rest of the year? Nice work, whoever thought of it over there.
Anyway, all that out of the way there is something that doesn't quite feel right about this game. My good friend Sutra has been awfully confident about this matchup, to the point that I don't think I've heard him this sure of an outcome in a conference game in a long time as he is about this one. The logic is sound, too, I mean the idea is that if you get to Sean Mannion and make him move, you have the Beavs right where you want them. And OSU hasn't exactly been all that impressive this year if you want to know the truth. Losing the opener to EWU was a shocker, and to their credit they have done the typical Mike Riley act of circling the wagons when people like myself leave them for dead. But they needed OT to beat a Utah team that, well, the jury is out on how good they are this year. And they needed a pick-6 late to beat a mediocre-at-best San Diego State team the following week. Sure, they blew out Colorado at home but people are seeing rather quickly that CU just doesn't have the horses to run with even above average teams this year, so that wasn't exactly a surprise.
But all that said, the difference for OSU this week is that they are reportedly getting back to health in a hurry after a nice bye week to lick their wounds. They look to have 4 of their regular O-line starters back in action after some injuries early this year, and their best running back by far in Storm Woods is reportedly healthy and raring to go. The idea that Sean Mannion was able to throw for over 2,000 yards and 21 TD's without any semblance of a running game and a patchwork O-line to boot? And to think that the line is going to be better now, and he's got his main running back healthy and ready? All those fat passing #'s to Brandin Cooks, all without his top O-line protection and his best back? Yes, I'm officially nervous.
I do think we'll see the Cougs move the ball through the air. OSU's been awfully generous on D this year, ranked #92 in the country in scoring defense and they appear to have some issues in the secondary. They are 11th in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense, barely ahead of Cal, and we saw what the Cougs did in the air last week!
So I'm not worried that we won't be able to move the ball and score points. And I even think we'll see the D bring the heat early on in front of the sellout crowd. But the downside is that the pass rush is still an issue on this team, and the biggest question I have is will they be able to get consistent pressure on Mannion when he drops back to pass? The Cougs do have 10 sacks on the season thus far, which is OK but certainly not a terror in the pass-rushing department, good for 7th in the conference. But the biggest concern is If they get Woods going early in the running game. If the Cougs are forced to respect the OSU running game and therefore keeping the pass rush in check, and Mannion can legitimately play-action out of it? It could be a long night for the Coug D.
In the end, I think it will be a fantastic game with a lot of big plays on both sides. But I have to make a pick, so I believe Mannion makes one more big play on our D down the stretch. In a tough heartbreaker at home, OSU pulls it out, 43-40.
All for now. GO COUGS!
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