First, your usual reminder to make your picks this week in the Yahoo contest. Here’s the info:
Group #1:
Go here.
Group: 14767
Password:gocougs
Group #2:
Go here.
Group: 16079
Password:wazzufbblog
Here we go….
LUCASCOUG SEZ:
Well Cougar fans, I have had a tough go of it lately, picking only 4 of the last 11 games correctly. Last week I got back on the wagon with my spreads, so it’s time to do the same for our Pick ‘Em League. Most teams are fully rested after having a Bye Week or two in the past couple of weeks. Well, everybody but the Cougs. Anyways, without further ado, here is how I see things shaking out in Week Nine!
Cal at Oregon State: Last week the Bears absolutely throttled the Sun Devils in Bezerkeley, but if we know anything about Cal, it’s that they’re a bad road team (see, at Nevada, and at USC). Meanwhile, the Beavs are coming off a loss to the Huskies two weeks ago, yet still sit in 4th Place in the Pac 10. Maybe the loss of James Rogers meant more to this team than a lot of people thought it would. I still haven’t seen enough out of the Bears to pick them over Oregon State in Corvallis. Here is some interesting food for thought. With a new stadium opening in the near future in Bezerkeley (no I’m not trying to sound urban, I’m referring to how bat-$#!+ crazy that place is), when does the hot seat get a little warmer for Jeff Tedford? Seriously, has any team underachieved more in the last six or seven years with given the amount of talent they have? I am going to take the Beavs in this one, 38-31.
Arizona at UCLA: The Wildcats absolutely took the Dawgs behind the proverbial woodshed last week, so they have got to feel confident heading on the road to face a depleted UCLA team. What the hell is going on in La-La-Land? Coach Neuheisal has suspended multiple contributors multiple weeks in a row. Could you imagine if he suspended contributors when he was in the coach at UW? Well first of all, we wouldn’t have this book. The book is a phenomenal read for any non-UW fan by the way, seriously read the 10 page preview their on Amazon and try to tell me you don’t want to read the rest. Secondly, some may argue the Huskies wouldn’t have won the 2001 Rose Bowl. Yes that was me, taking shots at the Huskies, talking about two different teams not named UW. Man, I’m good at that! Anyways, back to the topic at hand. The Wildcats don’t seem to be too concerned about the absence of Nick Foles, as his back up was named conference player of the week. Last weekend UCLA was embarrassed by the Ducks on national TV, and I see this one getting really ugly really quick. Did watching the Oregon/UCLA game last Thursday make anybody else upset that we didn’t beat the Bruins? AirZona returns and rolls over the Bruins, 49 – 20.
Stanford at Washington: I would be willing to bet the Stanford game plan for this game is the exact same plan they had against us last weekend. They are going to run Power Right and Power Left at the Huskies until they can stop it. If and only if the Huskies can stop it, then you will see Andrew Luck pick apart the UW secondary just like he did in going 20-28 for 190 yards against the Cougs. The only match-up that matters in this game is the Stanford OLine vs the UW DLine, I know where my money is at. The Dawgs only hope, in my eyes, is that Stanford plays a bit sloppy, like they were at times against us. Stanford 41 – Washington 28.
Oregon at USC: Is this seriously the best game that College Gameday could come up with? Why not Michigan State at Iowa? Missouri at Nebraska? ESPN must enjoy the Fall of Troy as much as I do. This could be one of the highest scoring games of the year in all of college football. More than Nebraska and Okie State’s 92 points last week, maybe even more than the triple digits that Arkansas and Auburn combined for two weeks back. I know the Ducks pull this one out, but have no clue what the final score might be. Let’s roll with Quacks 60 – Troy 49.
Finally, Washington State at ASU: The Cougs and LucasCoug travel to the Valley of the Sun this weekend to battle the Sun Devils who are coming off an atrocious outing last week in Bezerkeley. Steven Threet and Brock Osweiler both may miss this game, which could make things very interesting if we can stop the run. I have no doubt we can match ASU point for point in this one, the big question mark is going to be whether or not we can avoid shooting ourselves in the feet. We also must win the turnover battle, which shouldn’t be difficult if we concentrate. This one goes into Overtime and the Cougs pull it out, Wazzu 35 – ASU 31.
Be sure to check back in on Sunday for my first hand recap of the Cougs and Sun Devils game. Have a great rest of the week!
LONGBALL SEZ:
Hello Coug fans, Longball here with this week’s Pac-10 picks…
Cal visits Corvalis this week and though they may be flying high after mauling Arizona State last week, I still don’t believe in them on the road. The Beavs, of course, are a bit steamed after dropping, literally, a tough overtime contest in Montlake. I expect the Beavs to begin their annual late season surge this weekend with a comfortable win at home.
Beavers 35, Bears 21
Arizona goes to the Rose Bowl this week, somewhere they have never been in January. That is definitely on everyone’s mind in Tuscon as they have just one loss in league play and first place Oregon still looms ahead on their schedule. I expect the Cats to be focused, and TCB against a UCLA squad that has been reeling of late.
Cats 40, Bruins 17
In the Pac-10 game of the week, Oregon takes their loftiest ranking ever on the road to USC. Will this be the final passing of the conference torch from Troy to Eugene, or will the Trojans summon all their damaged pride and drive a dagger into the Ducks national championship aspirations? I have rarely been as impressed as I was watching Oregon’s offense against UCLA last week and expect a similar treatment is in store for the Kiffin family.
Ducks 45, Trojans 30
At the beginning of the season it was hotly debated, who is the best QB/Heisman candidate/ NFL prospect, Andrew Luck, or Jake Locker? So far, the argument has swung widely in Luck’s favor, but an upset by the Huskies at home this weekend could really turn things on their heads. Of course Locker is playing with a broken rib and the Husky defense is terrible, so…
Card 38, Dawgs 24
Finally, the Cougs head to the desert to take on their first unranked opponent in 4 weeks. The skeptic in me is worried that for the first time in forever, there are a lot of expectations for the Cougs to win a Pac-10 game. In addition the Sun Devils are piping hot mad after getting man-handled at Cal and it will be Homecoming in Tempe. I’m not sure how this team is going to handle entering a game where there are more than 0 expectations. We are still over 20 point dogs, but the media, the message board fans, everybody it seems thinks this is it, the week we’ve all been waiting for! Ok, fine I give in…
Cougs 31, Devils 28
And Longball weeps uncontrollably for hours.
That’s all for now folks. Have a great week and Go Cougs!
SUTRA SEZ:
Happy Thursday to you, Followers. Hope you’ve had a great week.
You know followers, I told one of the blogfathers two weeks ago that, were we to win a game this season, it would come when we all least expected it. And so, at the time, I made the bold and perhaps stupid prediction that our first win would NOT come against Arizona State, nor CAL, nor the Defeateds of Washington at home in the Apple Cup. Instead, I made the semi-claim that our first Pac-10 win of the year would come against none other than Oregon State.
On top of that, I am also on record as saying that we would have to actually be in a few games in the fourth quarter until we actually pulled one out. Well, last I checked, the number of Pac-10 games we’ve really been in through three quarters is, well, ONE.
So, as we head into this weekend’s contest, I find myself torn between really, really, REALLY wanting us to win, semi-expecting us to win, clinging to my semi-sane thoughts of weeks past at the same time that I’m wondering whether or not we are good enough yet to pull one off–especially on the road.
Therefore, after much tossing and turning about this week’s match-up, here is where I stand:
1) I think we’ll score, but I don’t know we’ll score enough to put ASU away. After all, ASU is going to blitz us silly this week. And while that could really cause us some problems (especially if Tuel gets knocked out of the game), I also think its going to create opportunities down field for us to score. How many? Well, I am thinking two or three touches. I also think that we’ll manage to kick a field goal in this one. So, I’m going with a point total for us right around the happy number of 24.
(And just so we’re clear: I think we can score more than that, but when you factor in that we scored 14 points TOTAL in 7 out of our last 8 quarters of football, part of me thinks that scoring over 24 is pretty ambitious.)
2) I think our defense is really improving at the same time that I think their offense just isn’t very good. So, for me, a BIG question is how they run the ball and how many big plays we give up along the way. In the end, I see us giving up 10 points on sustained drives, 7 on a big play, and another 7 from turning the ball over on our side of the field. So, that gives them a total of 24 for the game.
So, in spite of trying to find separation in this game, I keep on returning to a 24-24 tie after regulation–which would bring us our first overtime game of the year.
And, as we saw a few weeks back on Montlake, an overtime game really favors the home team. Moreover, while I like our ability to beat ASU vertically, I am not comfortable with what our execution would be against their defense when the field gets shortened.
So, as much as it pains me to say it, I’m calling Devils in double overtime: 38-31.
And no words can express the heartbreak I’ll feel if that score comes to light.
Elsewhere:
Oregon 48 SC 35. Will SC run the ball? Yep. Will SC throw the ball? Yep. Will SC have a scheme to slow down Oregon’s running attack? Yep. Does USC have the defensive backfield to slow Oregon’s passing game? NOPE.
And so, while I expect Troy to give the Quack all that they want, ultimately, I don’t think SC will be able slow the Ducks down enough to win. But Arizona might in a couple of weeks.
Stanford 41 UW 28. Stanford’s D got a MAJOR tongue lashing all of this week. And, while I like Jake against teams that aren’t that fast, I think Stanford’s phsysicality will get to the Dawgs in this one. Oh yeah, I don’t see how the Dawgs slow down Luck and company either.
Oregon State 28 CAL 27. Normally, I’d pencil this in as a real old fashioned slug fest. But, Katz is good enough through the air to make CAL work hard defensively in this one. And, while I think that Vareen will have a nice day, King Mediocre is just not good enough to win in Corvallis. Or is he?
And the week’s true who cares game:
Arizona 41 UCLA 6. Two teams going in very, very different directions. Too bad we had to play UCLA so early in the year.
Enjoy the games and GO COUGS.
SEANHAWK SEZ:
Happy Halloween weekend Cougs! Will something spoooooookkkyyyy go down in Tempe this weekend? You know, our own Lucas Coug will be in attendance, and I’m pretty jealous. Not just because this game isn’t on TV, which I’m still not totally over. But wow, Tempe for Halloween weekend? Have ya BEEN to a game down there, and checked things out? The weather, the scenery, it’s all pretty cool, and we know Lucas will make the best of the situation. As he mentioned, look for his first-hand recap of sorts, most likely on Sunday.
I still have mixed memories from the ’97 season, as a bunch of us made the trek down to Tempe for the Ryan-Leaf-led Cougs vs. Mitchell “Fright Night” Friedman and the ASU Devils. It was a wild game, where ASU bolted to a huge early lead, the Cougs stormed back to actually take the lead, then ASU put it away with a couple of late scores. The outcome wasn’t that surprising, in fact I figured that would be a “logical” loss for the Cougs, a tough road game vs. the defending Pac-10 champs. But what surprised me was the ASU crowd. I know they don’t seem overly hostile on TV, but wow, that was one of the toughest road games I’ve seen in terms of the taunting from the home crowd!
We were called every name in the book heading in and out of the stadium, and it was just kind of surprising. I didn’t know ASU could be like that, as yeah they seem loud but I hadn’t heard they were, you know, “mean”. But oh well! Still a great trip, even if about 15 of us stayed in the same hotel room. Have fun Lucas!
Anyway, this week – I’ll be brief. Like many of you, I have gone back and forth with this game. Earlier in the week, I was sure that this was THE ONE. The week in which finally, after all the misery and suffering, the Pac-10 losing streak would come to an end. After all, it’s “only” ASU, right? Surely they aren’t good, and this would be the week, right? Well, not so fast my friends. Consider:
1) ASU lost by one flippin’ point at Wisconsin. The same Wisconsin that handled Ohio State with ease.
2) They put up 31 points vs Oregon. 31 points?!? I know the Coug offense has taken some big steps forward in the last month, but quick, can you remember the last time we scored 31 points on anyone? Think Portland State, circa 2008.
3) They lost by a field goal at Oregon State. Corvallis is one of the toughest venues in the Pac-10 to grab a road win, and ASU was in that sucker until the end.
4) Finally, they manhandled Washington in Husky Stadium. Yes, Jake was sick or hurt or whatever, and it wasn’t a pretty game, but ASU just imposed their will. They were faster, stronger and more physical on both sides of the ball.
And there’s the problem this week. More so than the play calling, schemes or anything else, ASU is still ahead of where the Cougs are in the Pac-10 pecking order. They are bigger, stronger, and faster than we are, and that’s the case at several positions. And it was only a year ago that ASU held the Cougar O to MINUS 54 yards rushing, the worst day ever on the ground since WSU began tracking rushing yards in 1957! I was at that game, and it was literally Tuel getting the snap, taking one look down the field, then run for your life, time and time again. With a beat-up offensive line and still no consistent rushing game to take the heat off of Tuel, I expect ASU to come after the QB from every direction. Tuel might beat them deep a time or two, with Marquess Wilson on one side of the field and Jared Karstetter on the other, but it probably won’t be enough.
I do believe it will be close, but in the end, ASU’s athletes will get the job done at home. If it was in Pullman, I might take the Cougs to sneak out a 3-point win. Instead, let’s go ASU 27, Cougs 21.
Other games:
Cal at Oregon State: Cal is great at home, but so are the Beavs, now 39-19 at Reser with Mike Riley. If it was in Berkeley I would probably pick Cal, but even without a key component of the offense in James Rodgers, they still have Quizz doing his thing. Beavs 30, Cal 20.
Arizona at UCLA: Arizona is going do to whatever they want. Meanwhile, with SC down and Tricky Ricky in his third year, wasn’t this supposed to be UCLA’s time to exert their will over So-Cal? And in terms of coaching hot-seats and such, shouldn’t the heat be turned up a bit on Neuheisel? Anyway, AZ 41, ‘Ruins 14.
Stanford at Washington: A lot of people are calling this one a bounce-back game for the Dawgs. After all, that’s been their “M-O” this year, lose one then win one the next week. But uh, yeah, this is a big, brooding Stanford football team that is big, strong, and mad about playing not very good last week vs the Cougs. The worst possible thing for UW was Stanford slogging through the Coug win last week. Harbaugh has their full attention now, and they are coming to Seattle ready to put the hurt on UW. And if we know anything about UW, we know that bigger, stronger teams who have imposed their will on them has led to a loss. That trend continues this week. Stanford 35, UW 24.
Oregon at USC: SC still has to be smarting after their worst loss in, like, forever last year, when the Quacks smacked ’em around in Eugene, 47-20. Oregon hung up an amazing 613 total yards on SC’s vaunted D. What’s crazy is that Oregon is actually a better team this year than last year, and SC is slightly worse. In those very basic terms, I’m going Oregon in this one, and it’s going to be big. How about Ducks 54, SC 23?
All for now. We’ll have some good video stuff for you tomorrow. Enjoy your day, and as always, GO COUGS!
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