Greetings Cougs, and a happy (?) Football Friday on Thursday to you and yours.
So, I’m sure some of you will find yourself in the same place I’ve been since Saturday afternoon, and that it’s been kind of a rough week. All that excitement and buildup, the positive hopes that the program was finally looking like it was going to take that big step we have all been waiting for since Mike Leach set foot in Pullman? It all felt lost, gone in the blink of an eye and flushed away with the unseasonably cool September rain.
The issues are many and it doesn’t feel like a good thing to rehash the how-did-we-get-here vibe. But I will say this:
IN YEAR 4 of the Mike Leach era, a loss like this? It just shouldn’t happen. You should not go out and lose to what many have said is the worst team in the Big Sky, picked last in the preseason rankings in their own conference. You should not go out and get pushed around by a lower-level FCS team. That was not Rutgers and their power running game, that was not Stanford with their 17 tight ends and offensive tackles all over the place just steamrolling you in the wrong direction. This was Portland State, for all intents and purposes a commuter school. And all they did was nothing real fancy, in any way. This wasn’t a flurry of triple reverse WR passes or onside kicks or fake punts or whatever. This was an old-fashioned butt kicking, where for the entire second half one team decided to physically dominate the opponent. And that just shouldn’t happen in year 4 of the Mike Leach era. Period.
But at this point, what can you do? Sure, one can make the usual excuses – the weather sucked, the team wasn’t fired up for a lower-level opponent, we do have a new starting QB and we lost some quality guys like Vince Mayle and Isiah Meyers on offense and Xavier Cooper and others up front on defense. And it happens every year, FBS teams DO IN FACT LOSE TO FCS TEAMS, and you know what? It will happen again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that. So we aren’t hardly alone in the lose-to-an-FCS-team club, and we won’t be the last.
But this loss, it HAS to be flushed away, doesn’t it?? It already has done so much damage to the morale of Coug Nation or what’s left of it anyway. And it’s become increasingly difficult to try and defend the loss and the direction of the program. Our good friend Sutra pointed out the other day how closely mirrored the records are of Ty Willie’s disaster of a tenure at UW with Mike Leach, and that’s pretty unsettling. They are pretty much identical after three full seasons, and then Paint Dry Ty rolled out the 0-12 season. And then you think of some of the things they said about Ty towards the end, about how the team was often too flat or looked completely unprepared, and that he was struggling with recruiting in-state players, stuff like that? Sounds pretty similar to some of the criticisms of one Mike Leach, doesn’t it? Like it or not, the villagers are at the gates with torches and pitchforks, and Leach has got to pull something drastic off at this point to keep this thing from completely falling apart. Beating Rutgers would be a great start to turn it all around!
On to this week’s picks:
Utah 37, Utah St 23 – I really wanted to pick Utah State here, just for our buddy Longball. But the Utes look like a pretty good, complete team right now, while Utah St struggled mightily to win their opener, scoring just 12 points vs Southern Utah without scoring an offensive TD as they got a late punt return for the decisive score. I don’t think they have enough to beat Utah, but we’ll see! I’ve got the Utes in an exciting game.
Michigan 24, Oregon St 9 – The fightin’ Harbaugh’s already look like they will be fine once they clean up the turnovers. They looked strong and physical in the opener, and they should be something in the years ahead. They aren’t there yet though, so they’ll struggle a bit early vs the feisty Beav’s. But in the end a tougher, more physical team puts it away late on the ground.
UW 27, Sac St 13 – Huskies will struggle a bit with young Jake Browning still trying to figure it out. We know he has figured out how to check down and make the short, safe plays, but can he get it done down the field when it’s necessary to try and stretch the defense? We’ll find out. This one will be somewhat close early but eventually UW will pull away against an inferior opponent.
Colorado 35, UMASS 20 – Buffs rebound after an ugly, controversial loss at Hawai’i.
Cal 48, SD State 27 – Jared Goff continues to make the case that he should come out early and be a high first round draft pick next spring, as he carves up the San Diego State secondary.
Nevada 31, AZ 28 – UPSET ALERT! Az is reeling defensively after the loss of Scooby Wright for the next month, while Nevada gets a W over a Pac-12 team at home, again.
USC 1 BILLION, Idaho negative-50 – The only question is will this be worse than USC 69, WSU 0? Will Sark have them take a knee in Idaho’s redzone? We’ll see.
Michigan State 33, Oregon 24 – I LOVE Michigan State in this one. I know they are only a 4-pt favorite, but I really question the Duck D and how they are going to handle Connor Cook at QB. I don’t know if anyone saw the game last week, but EWU looked FAR TOO COMFORTABLE putting up 42 points in Autzen! Sparty gets revenge for last year’s loss.
UCLA 39, UNLV 16 – I know the world is jacked and pumped over the new kid QB, Josh Rosen. If you saw any of it, he sure looked the part of rising star. 351 yards and 3 TD’s, but most of all he made all the throws. The easy checkdowns, the longer outs, the touch on the deep ball, the kid has it all. That said, they may let down a bit on the road in Vegas, but they have more than enough to run away with it. UCLA is loaded this year in an incredibly stacked Pac-12 south!
Stanford 27, UCF 24 – Another tough week for David Shaw, but the Cardinal should have just enough to eek it out. Boy they looked bad last week though, with the offense looking completely out of synch all day long and Kevin Hogan still showing some issues with accuracy and all that. It’s early of course, but this may be the worst Stanford team since early in the Harbaugh era.
ASU 57, Cal Poly 19 – ASU is pissed after last week. Pray for Cal Poly.
Finally, WSU – Rutgers – Believe you me, I WANT TO BELIEVE. I want this thing to work, and have defended Leach and all things quirky-passing-offense-guy all along. But last week may have been the tipping point for you, me, and everyone else who still gives a damn. And I know Rutgers is a mess, hell they might be firing their coach sooner rather than later(!), guys have been kicked off the team, etc. They have an extremely green set of defensive backs after all the suspensions and injuries and such, so yards and points will be available to our Coug O. But can the defense slow down Rutgers? The Scarlet Knights are really similar to what we saw last year. They are going to line up in heavy sets, and with their physical running backs are going to run the heck out of the ball. And what better way to combat the Air Raid than keep the ball away from said offense? They will ground, they will pound, and they will try to get 300 rushing yards on the day.
After what happened last year with Rutgers, it’s clear WSU has a big problem stopping the run. Whether that’s because we aren’t very good up front in terms of stopping the run, or the linebackers are not very good in terms of run fits or just the basics like communication or even taking the correct angles and wrapping up, it’s just not something they do well. And that weakness is the perfect recipe for Rutgers and not only what is their primary strength, but it’s what they WANT to do. But if you honestly ask yourself about what happened the last time they played Rutgers, and then what happened vs. Portland State, do you think this will magically be a different outcome?
When it’s all said and done, I think it will be a heck of an entertaining game. WSU needs this game in a huge way, we all know that. But I think in the end we’re going to see a Coug D that will be powerless to stop the most basic play in football. We will know it’s coming, all the way from our couches across the country, and there is nothing they will be able to do to stop it when it matters most, specifically in the second half when fatigue and a lack of depth at linebacker sets in. We will score some points and the offense looks much better compared to last week, but Rutgers pulls away late and wins it, 44-40.
All for now. Enjoy the games, and of course, GO COUGS!
SUTRA SAYS
Hello Followers.
Well, its been one tough week. And I hope that by the time Saturday evening rolls around the Cougs will be 1-1 and we’ll all be talking about how great Mike Leach is and what Bozos we all are in the internet for ever doubting his ability to lead Cougar Football out of the perpetual abyss.
In case you missed it, last week I offered four keys to victory: (a) Falk throwing over 400 yards (b) WSU rushing for over 300 yards (c) Scoring more than 35 points (d) being +1 in the turnover margin. My line of reasoning: Do all 4 and I’ll eat my hat if we lose. Do 3 and we’ll be in the game til the end. Do 2 and we might be through. Do 1 and we’re done.
Well, I picked us to do all 4 and we wound up doing only 1. And what happened? We were done.
So, when I look at this game, the question is whether we will be able to get three of these keys to go our way. And unfortunately, my answer to that is “no.”
Will Luke Falk throw for 400 Yards? Answer: NO. I think he’ll throw for 387
Will WSU Rush for 100 Yards? Answer: YES. I think we’ll rush for 115 because Rutgers is going to compensate for their inexperienced DBs by rushing three and dropping eight. And at some point, Wicks is going to make them pay for that.
Will WSU Score 35 points? Answer: NO. Rutgers is going to try to take the air out of the ball and the fact that they are going to drop a million guys into coverage means that the score will be lower than what folks on the internet have been imagining.
Will WSU be +1 in Turnovers? Answer NO. I don’t think that Rutgers is going to put the ball on the carpet, but I do think that we’re going to throw a couple of picks. The key to the game, for me, is whether or not those TO’s wind up being more fatal than costly.
And then there’s the kicking game…..
Prediction: All of the “intangible” aspects of this game favor WSU. The weather is going to be better/favorable for the Air Raid, Rutgers’ secondary is more inexperienced than ours, and we are DESPERATE for a win. And Rutgers? Well, they’re getting their main RB back, but you have to wonder how “up” they will be a for a WSU team that just lost to an FCS school–especially since they beat us on the road last year. So, there’s a good chance that they may come out flat. And if they do, then maybe we bury them early????
But, in the end, I think this game is going to look a lot like last weekend. I think we’ll be in it early and late, but ultimately, I think we’re going to come up short on a game winning drive at the end. Rutgers 31 WSU 24.
Utah 38, Utah St 13 – Utes roll in this one. But man, I want to see UTAH State wake up in time to beat UW next week!
Michigan 31, Oregon St 28 – I think that this is going to be a sneaky good game. That said, it would be great for the Cougs if Michigan absolutely beat the snot out of the Beavs. I mean, we need the Beavs to have a MAJOR transitional year this year–we don’t need them to come out of the gate believing in themselves and their new coach.
UW 17, Sac St 16 – I’m going to underestimate UW until I can’t do it anymore. But this one is going to get folks wondering what happened to football in the State of Washington.
Colorado 55, UMASS 10 – The Spruce is gonna get lose.
Cal 55, SD State 0 – Nothing will make me grumpier than seeing us 0-2 and CAL 2-0 and ranked 24th in Country in Dykes’ third year.
AZ 28 Nevada 15– Arizona will get it done because that’s what Pac-12 teams do–when they’re not bottom feeders.
Oregon 51 MSU 48 -Quack get it done in what will be the best game of the regular season in 2015.
Enjoy the games and my best wishes to the WSU players and coaches who have had such a horrible week. Go get em boys!
Go Cougs!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
