Prediction Machine: Starting Cousins over Griffin would have minimal impact on Redskins' playoff hopes http://t.co/OE9zSGeeRq
— Anthony Brown, The RedsCommander (@RedsCommanders) August 19, 2015
The Redskins’ chance to make the playoffs are virtually the same whether Griffin or Cousins start at quarterback.
My friends at PredictionMachine.com are at it again, this time by running statistical mysticism on how the NFL season would change if every team’s back-up QB started the entire season.
In 50,000 simulations, the ‘Skins make the playoffs in 22.6 percent of the runs. In 50,000 simulations with Cousins as the starter, Washington makes the playoffs in 22.0 percent of the runs. That’s a minimal difference.
The Patriots and Packers project the biggest drops in playoff chances, if Jimmy Garappolo replaced Tom Brady, and if Scott Tolzien replaced Aaron Rodgers.
The Pats, in fact, did lose Brady virtually all of 2008. Matt Cassel started 15 games at QB and won 10 of them. New England missed the playoffs with an 11-5 season.
The Pats are NFL royalty. The Redskins are not. If the margin between Griffin and Cousins is so minimal to post-season odds, why does anyone care which player starts? The drama! The personalities! Duh!
The Washington brain trust will not use RG as the playmaker that he was in his rookie year. They blame it on concern for his “safety.” That’s like having a Ferrari and not racing it because you might crash.
So, ‘tis better to drive it for the next ten years a like you’d drive your Chevy, rather than live on the edge the next three years as your kick-ass Ferrari.
OK then, but there’s a reason why you paid all that front money on the Ferrari. It wasn’t because you wanted to drive a Chevy.
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