After the 2013 season, it was obvious that the Brewers were in serious need of help at 1B. During that offseason, the Brewers brought in veterans Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds as insurance in case they decided not to give the starting job to Juan Francisco. At the time, few fans were enthusiastic about the prospects at 1B heading into 2014, but the Brewers really didn’t have a lot of options and at least the Overbay/Reynolds moves appeared to be low risk.
As it turned out, with low risk came low reward. The Brewers’ 1B slash line in 2013 was a pitiful .206/.259/.370. In 2014, it was a similarly underwhelming .207/.287/.356. By comparison, the line for all National League first basemen in 2014 was .263/.338/.440. After the 2013 season, many of us felt the Brewers couldn’t do any worse a 1B. After 2014, we probably want to set our sights a little higher than “better than Betancourt.”
While you never know how these things will turn out, the news that the Brewers traded with the Blue Jays for first baseman Adam Lind is, at first blush, considerably more encouraging than last year’s Overbay/Reynolds gambit. For the first time since the brilliant 2011 season, our team has something like a real first baseman! Sure, Overbay and Reynolds played 1B before 2014, but it was always understood they would platoon and neither was the true starter. Corey Hart showed promise in 2012, but due to his injury the following year that whole thing never really got off the ground. Lind could finally be the everyday first baseman the Brewers and their fans have been waiting on for three years.
To be sure, Lind has spent more time at DH in his career than at 1B. In fact, only about one-third of his plate appearances have come as a first baseman. I suppose that might suggest his defense is shaky, and indeed a quick review of his fielding stats reveals Lind isn’t a Gold Glover. He has a negative defensive runs saved above average (a metric I didn’t even know existed until just now) but the “advanced fielding” numbers seem to be in line with MLB averages. As long as Lind can remember how many outs there are in an inning, fans will be happy.
Lind’s selling point is his offense…and the fact that he was available probably didn’t hurt. In his comments to the media, general manager Doug Melvin said the Brewers weren’t really in a position to get the biggest free agent first baseman on the market, Adam LaRoche. Even though Lind is pretty weak against left-handed pitching, Melvin argues he’ll be fine in the NL Central:
“He’s a pretty good hitter,” Melvin said. “He can hit in the middle of the order. We haven’t had a left-handed bat in the middle of the order since Prince (Fielder) left. The left-handedness helps.”
[…]“Our division is right-handed-dominant when it comes to pitching,” he said. “We looked at that and we did the calculations and the analytics told us a regular player would face 150 to 160 at-bats against a left-handed starting pitcher. With that said, a few days (off) for him probably isn’t a bad thing, either.
“He’s a guy that’s been a dominant hitter against right-handed pitching.”
You’d expect Melvin to highlight the positives of the trade, and in his position he’s had plenty of experience saying all the right things. As fans, we might be concerned about Lind’s recent injury history and the fact that he’ll be facing tough left-handed relievers late in games. And since we’ve been burned at 1B before, many of us might not want to get too excited about this trade. On the other hand, if you have a choice between being pessimistic or optimistic, you might as well choose happiness. Otherwise you end up being one of those miserable suckers who calls into sports talk radio.
The other side of the Lind trade is that Marco Estrada’s time in Milwaukee has come to an end. It’s a shame he’s leaving after a season in which he led the NL in home runs surrendered – quite an inauspicious feat considering his last start was July 7. No one wants to end things on a sour note.
Estrada was a key contributor to the 2011 division-winning team, and had respectable-to-good seasons in 2012 and 2013 (when he was healthy). He was not great, but he could be a decent long reliever and a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. A review of his game logs for 2012 and 2013 shows he had plenty of quality starts. His longest start was eight innings against the Astros in the meaningless penultimate game of the 2012 season. As far as I can tell, Estrada didn’t have many memorable outings, although I do fondly recall that he defeated Stephen Strasbourg this past June.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, they get a long relief pitcher who can make some starts if needed. Estrada definitely did better coming out of the bullpen in the second half of 2014, and one would suspect he hasn’t made his last MLB start. He seems like a swell guy, and it’s good that he’ll have an opportunity to continue his career with another team. It would be nice if this trade was the kind of thing that worked out for everyone involved.
(Image: JSOnline)
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