Miami moved on from the Dwyane Wade Era this offseason, allowing the former Finals MVP and three-time champ to head north for his hometown Chicago Bulls. While that entire Windy City squad might make fewer threes than Steph Curry and projects to miss out on the playoffs for a second straight season, the Heat have a shot at remaining in the playoff race—especially if Chris Bosh is back.
Wade leaving frees the Heat’s dragon, Goran Dragic, to fly around the floor on offense. It’s his show now on that side of the ball, and Miami will be feeding him screens until global warming is gone. Hassan Whiteside will be setting a lot of those picks before diving to the basket. With Wade no longer eating up so many possessions, Dragic should easily surpass his scoring and assist averages from last year with the obvious caveat being health now that he has reached 30 years of age.
In all likelihood, the ceiling for last year’s Heat had already been reached. As much as Wade still has to offer, his playing style would’ve forced Miami to run it back with a bad fit of two ball-dominant guards surrounded by too many inconsistent outside shooters. Allowing the face of the franchise to sign with Chicago was the right move. It might cost the Heat a spot in the playoffs this year, but it’s not like retaining Wade would’ve made Miami contenders. In fact, I’ll argue that Miami lost more by letting Luol Deng sign with L.A.
The Fountain of Youth, a Seven-Foot Question Mark, and Chemistry Concerns
Josh Richardson, the man most likely to step into Wade’s shoes and start at the 2, can’t be left alone along the perimeter. He also has the brashness and bounce to blow by bad closeouts, attacking the rim with reckless abandon. Thanks to his remarkable quickness and wingspan, Richardson can also cover three positions defensively. He won’t be Miami’s best player next year, but his diverse range of skills might make him the most irreplaceable one. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares against opposing starters for heavy minutes, but count me among those who won’t be surprised to see him succeed. In terms of fit, it’s easy to get amped up about a Dragic-Richardson backcourt pairing.
Fellow sophomore Justice Winslow will play a dramatically different role depending on whether or not Bosh is available. If Bosh is healthy and hooping, Winslow won’t be relied on to stretch the defense as much. Without the future Hall-of-Famer active, Justice’s not-yet-ready jumper and a lack of star-power (plus dismal depth) probably prevents the Heat from rising.
However, Bosh’s versatility on both ends alongside Whiteside would keep this team relevant if he is deemed fully healthy. With Winslow occupying the 3, they’d be the biggest frontcourt in basketball. Unfortunately, it’s also a real possibility that we’ve witnessed Bosh’s last professional game.
The starting core-four of Dragic, Richardson, Winslow, and Whiteside logged 303 minutes together in 2015-16, 265 of which either Joe Johnson or Luol Deng was the fifth man. Gerald Green played 29 minutes with that group, Wade played five, and Josh McRoberts played four. Chris Bosh and Tyler Johnson saw zero minutes alongside the four aforementioned players. Fansided’s Ian Levy wrote about a serious lack of roster continuity, and stuff like this is exactly why Levy, ESPN, and others (myself included) are predicting a decent drop-off in the win column after a 48-34 season.
Trying to figure out who the fifth starter will be if Bosh isn’t healthy makes for quite a compelling conversation. Does Tyler Johnson (aka the $50 million man) or Dion Waiters slide into a small-ball lineup alongside Dragic while Richardson and Winslow shift to the 3 and 4? Would Wayne Ellington earn the nod to facilitate better spacing? There will be no easy answers in regard to the starting lineup if Bosh’s health concerns keep him sidelined.
Filling out the Roster
Josh McRoberts: Miami reportedly couldn’t give Josh McRoberts away on the trade market. It seems like only yesterday that McBob was a fun-loving 4 for an up-and-coming Charlotte Hornets team. But he can’t really survive there anymore as the big leagues become smaller and faster, and he can’t slide to the 5 because he doesn’t protect the rim. McRoberts might have some nice tools on offense as a playmaker and outside shooter, yet he doesn’t stand a chance at sticking with 4’s out on the perimeter or 5’s inside the paint.
Derrick Williams: Williams somehow signed for less money this summer on a one-year deal than he did in his previous two-year deal. He also had the best campaign of his career with the Knicks last season, so something isn’t adding up here. Williams will probably be coming off the bench unless he has improved that three-pointer. I’m definitely curious to see what kind of role coach Erik Spoelstra has in mind for him though.
James Johnson: There are enough Raptors fans that believe in Johnson, and there was an excellent feature on him in one of the recent HP Quarterly’s. That’s mostly all I’ve got, but Johnson probably projects to fight with Williams for minutes off the bench. Johnson is a solid defender but he hasn’t proven capable of hitting three’s consistently enough to see where he fits in as a starter without Bosh.
Udonis Haslem: The aging hometown hero is back for one more year. Haslem was a solid signing even if he barely plays because the Heat needed to keep some semblance of its identity in the post-Wade Era. Haslem is by all accounts an excellent presence in the locker room, and I’m excited about the impact he might have on center Willie Reed.
Willie Reed: If Bosh has to retire, Reed could be the primary backup behind Whiteside. Reed has wowed in the Summer League and D-League. He has paid his dues. Now it might be his turn to shine.
Luke Babbitt: Acquired in a trade with the Pelicans, Babbitt has a knack for making a high percentage of his precious few three-point attempts per game. He probably won’t play all that much, but there’s no denying this team is desperately in need of shooting.
Fighting For the Final Spot – Guys Without Guarantees
Briante Weber: Weber was wildly fun to watch in Summer League, and it’s possible he earns the 15th spot on the roster as the third point guard. It has been reported that Beno Udrih has a standing offer for the vet minimum though, which would likely mean the end of Weber’s time in South Beach.
Rodney McGruder: McGruder and Weber were the Heat’s two best players during Summer League, but McGruder is even older than Weber at 25 (turning 26 in December). McGruder is a 6-3 shooting guard with a 6-6 wingspan who showed lots of improvement last season in the D-League, and it’s possible he’ll still get another NBA opportunity even if things don’t work out in Miami.
Stefan Jankovic: The sweet-shooting big man went undrafted out of Hawaii, but he has a chance to make Miami’s roster. If he does, he’ll likely spend most of the year honing his skills in the D-League.
Okaro White: White earned his chance to tryout based largely on his high-effort showings in Summer League, where he battled hard on the boards. At 6-9 with a 7-0 wingspan, the soon-to-be 24-year-old could eventually become a serviceable backup big.
Conclusion
I’d still be more surprised to see Orlando, Chicago, or New York make the playoffs than Miami if Bosh returns. Nevertheless, without Bosh, the Heat can probably kiss their postseason hopes goodbye. Of course, there will be a myriad of other factors involved besides Bosh, including the team’s overall health and the progress made by the youngsters who will be forced to step up and play more meaningful roles. Coach Spoelstra is one of the best in the business, but there’s no denying he has his work cut out for him in 2016-17.
*Salary cap/roster information from Spotrac.com*
*Player measurements from Draftexpress.com*
*Lineup data from nbawowy.com*
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