Forecasting the Sixers Snipers

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

While watching the Splash Brothers, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Korver and the rest compete in the three-point contest this past weekend, a thought struck me: it must be great to have such weapons at your team’s disposal. It’s no secret that hitting three-point shots is as hard for the Sixers as it is for comedians to avoid using an easy Kanye West joke. Philadelphia has shot just 31.0% on the season thus far, a mark that’s next-to-last in the NBA. Still, how far are they really away from climbing out of the cellar?

In order to examine, I looked at the entire list of Sixers three-point shooters this season. It occurred to me that there were a whole bunch of guys bringing that average down who are either no longer on the team (Shved), are not expected to be on the team next season if not next week (Mbah a Moute), or have been told to stop shooting threes altogether (Sims).

If you remove those guys from the equation, the team’s average climbs to 32.7%, still not great, but good enough to jump to 23rd in the league.

Now, imagine those 311 threes the first group was taking, about 1/3 of the team’s total, are going to someone who is a league-average shooter (34.9% this season). Even better, someone like Robert Covington who’s an above-average shooter. I know, you’re thinking that there couldn’t possibly be another Big Shot Bob out there. However, as much as he’s been a godsend for a Sixers team desperately in need of perimeter spacing, he’s not a top-50 three-point shooter in the league. There are plenty of other guys out there who can also shoot the rock.

Inserting just one average shooter takes the team up to 33.3%, good for 22nd in the league, while just one more above average sniper rises the team’s average to 34.2%, a sparkling 20th. The raw data doesn’t even account for ancillary benefits of having another quality shooter on the floor; just think of how much more open the Sixers offense becomes now when Covington is out there.

Now, 20th in the league doesn’t sound all that wonderful, but it’s better than Memphis, a contender that rides an outstanding defense to plenty of victories (a blueprint the Sixers seem to be employing). Plus, this was just with one player; the numbers would be even more striking if the team grabbed a back-up point guard who could shoot and soaked up some of Wroten and Sampson’s shots.

The point is, the Sixers are only one good shooter away from being a passable perimeter offense. The team just unveiled it’s slogan for the 2015-16 season: ‘This begins now.’ We’ll see if they’re really serious about that if they go out this offseason and acquire another player to space the floor. Plus, the Sixers are still waiting to bust out their secret weapon from downtown:

Sam Hinkie says fans can see Joel Embiid shooting at 530 before games, says Embiid may be 2nd best shooter on Sixers pic.twitter.com/SBY9l4Y6dE

— John Clark CSN (@JClarkCSN) February 10, 2015

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