FO’s preview

DVOA hates the Colts

At the same time, the pass defense went in the other direction: from 12th in Weeks 1-9 to 29th in Weeks 10-17. The Colts pass defense is reasonably average on third downs, but poor on first downs and really awful (31st) on second downs. It isn’t any particular cornerback: Kelvin Hayden has given up more big plays than Jerraud Powers, but the two starters have roughly the same Success Rate. Surprisingly, it seems the pass rush may be to blame. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are fine — they combined for 21 sacks this year and had plenty of hurries. However, partly because they so rarely blitz, nobody else on the Colts really ever gets to the quarterback. Defensive tackle Eric Foster had 3.5 sacks, and every other player on the Colts roster combined for a grand total of 4.5 sacks. That’s it. (Compare this to, say, the St. Louis Rams. James Hall and Chris Long combined for 18.5 sacks, while the rest of the team had 24.) The Colts were 30th in Adjusted Sack Rate this year and 29th in 2009. Slide two linemen over to Freeney, leave in a tight end or back to help with Mathis, and the pass protection should be fine.

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