Note: This is part three of a three part series on the Red Sox fourth outfielder role for 2009. Click here for more information and links to the other candidates for the position from Fire Brand’s writers and community.
Concluding our series on the fourth outfielder today is Eric Byrnes, the erstwhile outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unlike the first two candidates, Byrnes is not a free agent, but Arizona has given indications he would be available for a team willing to take his contract. Let’s take a look at Byrnes as a fourth outfielder candidate. First off, why would an up and rising team like Arizona want to unload a 32 year old outfielder who can play all three positions and just two years ago finished 11th in MVP voting? Clearly, it’s because the Diamondbacks are run by the United States Congress.
Google the phrase ‘cash strapped diamondbacks’ and on the first page alone you’ll find matches from 2002, 2004, 2007, and 2008; Arizona has been broke since they last won the World Series in 2001. Yet somehow, Arizona not only continues to survive (without a bailout, imagine that!), but spend more money they don’t have, just like a certain group of people working on a hill in our nation’s capital. What’s another couple billion when you’re already a trillion in the hole right? Same concept applies to the ball club, just on a smaller scale.
Which brings us back to Byrnes, who after his MVP-ish season in 2007, was rewarded with a back-loaded three year, $30 million dollar contract. After spending most of last year mending two torn hamstrings for $6 million, Byrnes is due $11 million a year in each 2009 and 2010, meaning now is the time for the Diamondbacks to unload the fan favorite.
The odds are good that we’ve seen everything that Byrnes is capable of doing at this point, but looking at his career numbers are interesting. There is an upward trend from 2003 to 2004, then his numbers dropped in 2005 as he was traded twice in one season. Then, in 2006 to 2007, another upward trend, before his injury plagued 2008 dropped him down again. Which Byrnes is real? The one that hits .280 with 20-25 homers and 25-50 stolen bases, or the one that hits a few ticks above .250; Bill James and Marcel projections favor the latter as they peg Byrnes at .257 and .260, respectively, in 2009.
At first glance, Eric Byrnes is a very average player who had a career year in 2007. His career isolated power is a very average .160, his career walk-to-strikeout ratio is a very average 0.47. Digging deeper, his career on-base percentage is .325, compared to a league average of .330 and his line drive percentage a very average 19.1% for his career. So the question remains, why would a team like Arizona, that can’t make mistakes with big contracts, reward such an average player for a career year with a contract they aren’t able to afford?
One metric stands out to me that might indicate Byrnes’ 2007 wasn’t an aberration, but more of what should be expected of him. Batting Average of Balls in Play is not meant to be heavily leaned upon as an indicator of a player’s potential, at least not in my interpretation of the formula used. Nevertheless, I am fascinated by it and the manipulations we can create by comparing and recalculating statistics with adjustments to a player’s BABIP.
The chart below shows Byrnes’ League Average BABIP Adjusted Batting Average. Basically, I took the league average of a .300 BABIP and applied it to Byrnes’ career batting averages. I did not include the first three partial years of his career for simplicity sake, but now Byrnes becomes a career .272 hitter instead of a .256 hitter, with just league average luck.
Reading too much into numbers? Probably, but it does lend credence to the belief that 2004 and 2007 may not be his exceptions but, instead his expected production. Suddenly, in a fourth outfielder role, Eric Byrnes fields three positions well, hits for average, hits for power, steals bases, and becomes very valuable addition to any team.
Hopefully by now I’ve convinced you that a) I’m crazy, b) I have too much time on my hands, c) Byrnes would be a great addition, or d) all of the above. So what would it take to get him, and would it make sense for the organization? At first, the discussions between the two clubs involved swapping Julio Lugo for Byrnes, but then Arizona signed Felipe Lopez (Lugo would have played 2nd for the D’backs) and lost interest in Lugo. The new deal being thrown around would involve parting ways with Michael Bowden to receive Eric Byrnes and catching prospect Miguel Montero. I’ll spend some time breaking down that trade in another article; but at least know that it’s on the table for now.
That wraps up the three part series on potential Sox fourth outfielders for 2009. I’m anxious to hear from the community regarding their opinions: Who is best for the job? Are we better off filling the role through free agency or trade? Finally, Happy New Year to all our readers! Thanks for a great 2008!
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