Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6, 2-6 in SEC)

Most impressive victory: 31-3 vs Ole Miss (Nov 26th)

Notable alumni: Will Clark, John Grisham, Rafael Palmeiro, Jonathan Papelbon

Mississippi State’s most impressive victory this year was probably against Ole Miss. Chew on that for a minute. The only team that Mississippi State beat that went to a bowl was Louisiana Tech and they needed overtime to do that. The bloom came off of Dan Mullen’s rose this year as his team didn’t live up to expectations and he made some questionable on the field decisions.

When you look at the stats, the differences for Mississippi State aren’t huge. One area of decline was 3rd down conversions as the Bulldogs fell 7% from last year. Another was red zone performance. This year Mississippi State scored a TD on only 58% of their red zone visits.

Another area that was lacking was on field leadership. QB Chris Relf really struggled and that led to a revolving door at QB. RB Vick Ballard got 1,000 yards on the season and had 5 100 yard games but four of those were against Memphis, Ole Miss and Tennessee-Martin and UAB. he didn’t show up big enough in the big games (had 38 yds vs LSU, 23 vs Georgia, 21 vs Bama and 54 vs Arkansas). I can’t quite put my finger on it but something was just off with Mississippi State this year. Of course, when you lose two really good assistant coaches (Manny Diaz and Mark Hudspeth) you tend to take a step backwards.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6, 5-3 in ACC)

Most impressive victory: 35-30 vs FSU (Oct 8th)

Worst loss: 41-7 vs Vanderbilt (Nov 26th)

Notable alumni: Muggsy Bogues, Tim Duncan, Arnold Palmer, Brian Piccolo, Jeff Teague

After losing a heart-breaker to Syracuse in week one, the Demon Deacons bounced back and won four straight games culminating in their defeat of FSU. After that it was all down hill. They went just 2-7 down the stretch beating only Duke and Maryland and getting absolutely embarrassed by Vanderbilt 41-7.

When Wake has the ball, QB Tanner Price will be calling the shots. He had a nice sophomore year throwing for 2800 yards and posting a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 6. Down the stretch Price found it tough as he only threw for over 200 yards in one of the final five games. The other guy to keep an eye on when Wake has the ball is WR Chris Givens. He finished third in the ACC in receptions with 74, totaled over 1200 yards receiving and had 9 receiving TDs. Mississippi State will need to know where he is at all times. Givens is complemented by Michael Campanaro, who finished with over 60 receptions but only found the end zone twice.

One area that Wake really struggled with down the stretch was stopping the run. In their final five games the lowest they held an opponent to was 175 against Notre Dame and Wake is giving up over 4.4 yards per carry on the year. Even though they haven’t had a lot of success this year, Mississippi State’s bread and butter is running the football and they might find themselves again against this Wake defense.

The Picks

Kevin: The way Mississippi State has played this year, I really want to pick Wake Forest. But I just can’t pull the trigger on a team that lost 41-7 in their last game. I also like the match-up of Mississippi State’s running game against Wake’s rushing defense. I think this is an ugly game but Dan Mullen finds a way to win and leaves 2011 with a winning record.

Mississippi State 27 Wake Forest 21

Jay: Wake Forest has struggled to run the ball this year, and that deficiency typically leads to a painful demise against an SEC defense.  The Demon Deacons are probably a bit more excited to be in this game than this disappointing Mississippi State team, but ultimately, I think the Bulldogs grind out an ugly win on the back of Vick Ballard.

Mississippi State 20, Wake Forest 16