Free Agency: Offense

Have you been following the NHL Trade Deadline religiously? We have. But now that that’s over, we can turn our attention back to football. Just when you think the excitment of wheeling and dealing players is over, you’re wrong.

NFL Free Agency begins Friday.

If we had been a) smart or b) not had midterms this week, we would have put together a series of posts about all the free agents out there. Instead, we’re packing it all into 2 posts. Today’s post will be focused on free agents on Offense and tomorrow’s post will focus on Defense.

Before we get rolling, here’s a brief explanation on how free agency works. There are three types of free agents: Unrestricted (UFA), Restricted (RFA), and Exclusive-Rights (ERFA) Free Agents. We’ll be using these acronyms, so if you’re not familiar with them, you will be. UFA’s are on the open market and can be signed by any team. At any point before the Free Agency period begins, an RFA or ERFA can be made a “tendering offer” by their team. Based on the amount of this offer, if they are signed by a different team that team must give up a draft pick in compensation. For example, Willie Colon is an RFA and the Steelers made him a tendering offer of $2.1 million for 1 year. Based on this number and a scale of draft picks, if another team signs Colon they would have to give the Steelers their first round draft pick. Additionally, if Colon gets an offer from another team, the Steelers can retain him by either matching or exceeding that offer. ERFA’s work in a similar manner, but they are made up of only players that have been in the league for 2 years whose contracts have expired.

Quarterback is the most important position on your team. The NFL has become a passing league, and whether you like it or not, that’s how it is. There are a slew of teams out there in need of a franchise passer. Here’s the teams we believe will be the most active in the QB market (this includes Free Agency and the Draft): St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Washington, Oakland, Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo.

This is not to say that all these teams need a franchise passer right now. Some (Seattle) are looking for a QB of the future to groom as the replacement for their aging quarterback. Others (San Francisco, Arizona) are looking for servicable back-ups in case their current starter falters. Washington and Denver are on the list because their starting QB from last year (Campbell and Orton) are due to hit the free agent market.

Kyle Orton

This might be the first time Orton has ever topped a list of quarterbacks. However, given the other names on the market, Orton is really the only one with starter potential. Orton has experience playing on teams with a good running game and not much to speak of in the passing game. I fully expect Denver to re-sign Orton, as he is a restricted free agent with first round tender, and it would cost any other team a hefty price in draft picks to pry Orton away.

Projected Team: Denver

Chad Pennington

Pennington, like Orton, will never be a quarterback that racks up a ton of yards. However, in a west coast offense where he isn’t asked to make a lot of throws down the field and can make use of his efficiency, he could be a servicable starter. He is coming off an injury, but we wouldn’t be surprised if a team like Buffalo took a shot at him, as Pennington knows the division well. Carolina and St. Louis are in play here as well.

Projected Team: Buffalo

Matt Moore

Moore stepped in in Carolina last year and played decently well. At 26, he has the potential to be a “bridge” for Carolina until they can land another franchise passer. With Delhomme becoming a turnover machine, look for Carolina to re-sign Moore as an insurance blanket then maybe go after a quarterback in the later rounds of the draft. UPDATE: Carolina put a huge tendering offer on Moore. Any team that signs him will have to give up a 1st and a 3rd round pick.

Projected Team: Carolina

Troy Smith

A virtual unknown on the QB market. Smith has seen minimal time with the emergence of Joe Flacco as Baltimore’s franchise QB. Does Smith think he can be a starter in the league? Is there a team willing to give him a shot despite not really knowing if he is NFL ready? At best, Smith is a back-up right now, but given his young age, Baltimore may be willing to let him walk and go after a veteran backup. Smith is an RFA, so Baltimore will get the opportunity to match any offer made to him.

Projected Team: Baltimore

Donovan McNabb-Kevin Kolb-Michael Vick

Technically none of them are Free Agents this year, but they will have a big impact on the QB market this offseason. All three are entering the last year of their contracts. Conventional thought is that Philly will select one to move forward with as their starter and try to move the other two on the market. Vick didn’t do a whole lot last year in Philly, but the Eagles will be a major player in the QB market this year. All three are capable of being starters in the league, and you have to wonder if some team is going to be willing to give up a draft pick for one of them, though McNabb or Kolb would probably cost a first rounder.

Teams in play: If Brett Favre drags his feet, don’t be surprised if Minnesota makes a play for McNabb or Vick. They’ve shown they have the roster to take them deep in the playoffs, they just need a quarterback that can make plays. Carolina is also a possible landing spot for Vick, as they have good run support but also the playmakers on the outside that could make him a threat. As always, never count Oakland out of the mix when trades can be made.

The next best: Tavaris Jackson (Minnesota, RFA), Bruce Gradkowski (Oakland, RFA-2nd Round Tender), Kellen Clemens (NY Jets, RFA), Brodie Croyle (Kansas City, RFA), David Carr, NY Giants, UFA)

There field of “Veteran Backup Quarterback” is deep this year with Charlie Batch, AJ Feeley, Mark Brunell, Daunte Culpepper

If you’re looking for a free agent running back this year, you might as well go to an AARP convention. Of all the positions in the league, Running Back has the most big names on the market. However, most of them are on the wrong side of 30. Most of the young and exciting players are RFAs and have high tender offers.

Darren Sproles

Sproles isn’t going to run anyone over any time soon, but he’s shifty, speedy, and can single-handedly take over a game (see: Wild Card Round vs. Indianapolis, January 2009). He is young and the top free agent on the market. He was franchised by San Diego last year, meaning he made a whole lot more than he was actually worth. He’s going to try to cash in on this and make some team pay big bucks for a specialty back. There are teams that could actually use a back like him, particularly Seattle and Detroit, two teams short on playmakers.

Projected Team: Seattle

Thomas Jones

Behind the Jets big beefy line, Jones racked up a ton of yards last year. But Jones will be 32 by the start of next season, and while he can still run hard between the tackles, he doesn’t have what it takes to be a feature back any more. Jones will be best served in a situation where he can split carries with someone. There are teams out there who have a need for a hard runner like Jones, and he should find a home on the market.

Projected Team: Washington

LaDainian Tomlinson

The biggest news of the year so far has been San Diego cutting ties with LT. Not that it came as an incredible surprise to anyone, we all knew that LT’s time had passed. But he’s still got enough in him to get those hard yards when he needs it. A team like Houston would benefit greatly from having someone like LT in their backfield.

Projected Team: Houston

Chester Taylor

The Spring Chicken of the Over-30 running back group. Taylor has been a sure-handed and serviceable back-up to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota for a few years now. But there are teams out there that will give him a bigger role than the 20-80 split he gets in Minnesota. He would be a perfect fit in a place like Detroit.

Projected Team: Detroit

Leonard Weaver

Weaver was a one-man wrecking crew at fullback for the Eagles last year. We would love to see the Steelers pick up someone like him that can just annihilate linebackers in the open field to clear holes for the running game. Chances are, he goes somewhere where fullbacks are actually appreciated. Weaver went to the Pro Bowl last year and the Eagles are looking to work out a new deal.

Projected Team: Philadelphia

Running Backs with Tendered Offers:

Ronnie Brown (Miami) – First Round

Le’Ron McClain (Baltimore) – First Round

Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) – First Round

Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) – Second Round

Leon Washington (NY Jets) – Second Round

Jason Snelling (Atlanta) – Second Round

LenDale White (Tennessee) – Second Round

Other Big Names: Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia), Willie Parker (Pittsburgh), Kevin Faulk (New England), Larry Johnson (Cincinnati)

The biggest names in the Wide Receiver market all have tendered offers made, but given the lack of first round talent at Wide Reciever in this year’s draft, don’t be shocked if someone makes a run at one of these guys.

Brandon Marshall

Marshall has a 1st round tender, but if a team can get past his off-field antics, his skills would actually be worth a first round pick. He has repeatedly said that he wants out of Denver. There are teams at the bottom of the first round in need of receivers that might be willing to give up their first round pick to land a guy like Marshall. Teams like Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati or Dallas could be in play here.

Projected Team: Denver

Miles Austin

The Cowboys chose not to use their franchise tag on Austin. This is really where the whole WR market hinges. If Austin doesn’t get a deal done with Dallas and tests the open market, that puts Dallas in play for the other receivers at the top of the market.

Projected Team: Dallas

Davone Bess

This FA class is loaded with slot receiver potential. Bess is the youngest of the group and the one with the most upside. After a solid college career at Hawaii catching passes from Colt Brennan, Bess has had some decent seasons with the Dolphins.

Projected Team: Cincinnati

Terrell Owens

We couldn’t go without mentioning TO. After a lackluster year with a lackluster team, TO is going to want to go out with a bang (are you surprised?). Look for him to try to weasel his way onto a contender’s roster.

Projected Team: Baltimore

Plaxico Burress

Is there a team out there willing to give him a shot fresh out of the can? It’s quite possible. There are some desperate teams out there in need of big play receivers. It may not make Plax happy to go to a non-contender, but I highly doubt he’s going to get any offers from any teams at the top. That being said, a team like Chicago in drastic need of receivers for their “franchise” passer to throw to would probably be willing to take a flyer on a guy like Plax.

Projected Team: Chicago

Players With Tendered Offers:

Braylon Edwards (NY Jets) – 1st and 3rd round picks

Vincent Jackson (San Diego) – 1st and 3rd round picks

Steve Breaston (Arizona) – 1st round pick

Lance Moore (New Orleans)

Ben Watson

Watson has been a reliable tight end for New England for many years, but it seems that the two teams might be parting ways. If it’s anyone’s bet, he goes to New England West.

Projected Team: Kansas City

Tony Scheffler

Scheffler has a low-round tender offer from Denver, but in a weak market for pass-catching tight ends, he might draw some attention. Then again, this draft class is very deep at the tight end position, so chances are teams will be more inclined to invest a draft pick in a tight end.

Projected Team: Denver

Players with Tendered Offers:

Owen Daniels (Houston) – 1st and 3rd Round

Bo Scaife (Tennessee) – 1st Round

Jeff King (Carolina) – 2nd Round

David Thomas (New Orleans/Wendy’s)

There isn’t anything spectacular going down on the O-line front this year. Most of the top-tier players have been tendered. If anything happens, it will be a trade and not a free agent signing. On the whole, teams seem to be playing it a lot closer to the vest in this un-capped year, offering tendering offers to players that might not usually get them for fear of what they might get over-paid on the open market.