Hello Cougar Nation and the BH/Cougla-Kahn Army!
Hope you all are having a great stinking week.
Don’t know about you all, but I for one have had it with Sutra and all of his cosmic crap. I mean, I know I have a different perspective on him and his Shananingans than the rest of you, but hasn’t he been around long enough for you all to figure him out? I mean, don’t you all get that he has made his entire “living” by basically confusing people into conformity?
And really, no where were his tricks more evident than last Monday’s post. As noted ONLY by “Current Coug” in the comment section (By the way, DO NOT GIVE SUTRA THAT MANY COMMENTS EVER AGAIN!!!!), Sutra started his posted with a very compelling (but stolen) question:
“With all that is going wrong right now, to what extent might it be possible for us to maybe, just maybe, Make Luck Suck?”
Of course, as Current Coug accurately critiqued, NO WHERE in his subsequent 10,000 word manifesto did he address that question.
And really, that is part and parcel of Sutra and his lifestyle, whereby he raises a bunch of issues and questions that he can’t answer and then leaves it to the rest of us to figure it out.
And so, because I love this blog much more than he does, it is my job now to try to sort this out.
Read on.
Nation, I have to tell you, I’m writing this post from inside of a closet near the utility room in Sutra’s compound. So, I’m going to do my darndest to get this thing out to you before he finds me, deletes this post, and then throws me back in my cage.
So, in order to cut to the chase, let me give you the lead:
WE ARE NOT GOING TO WIN THIS GAME
But, in spite of that fact, there are a few keys for this game that apply to future weeks as well:
1) Do not Mistake the Trees for the Forrest
To wit, while this game is not winnable, I think that two out of the next three are. In fact, it’s pretty clear to all of us who have a pulse that for the Cougs to reach bowl eligility, Oregon State and CAL represent must win games.
What’s more, while I do NOT like our match-up with Stanford, I actually do not dislike our chances against Oregon. In fact, if that game were in Martin Stadium, I would be VERY tempted for that game to be an upset special.
Of course, for us to win two out of our next four (or if the Gods are in the mood for granting miracles, three of four), our defense is going to have to improve in areas in which we are currently VERY vulnerable. And those two areas are (a) Our pass rush; and (b) Our corner play.
And when we look at what we need to do to beat a marquee quarterback like Andrew Luck (or his pro counterparts, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, etc), those vulnerabilities are NOT good ones to have. Instead, if we want to beat a guy like Luck, we need to follow the following, simple recipe: We need to hit him, then hit him again, then hit him again, and then HIT HIM AGAIN.
Now, in view of that recipe for success, ask yourself the following questions:
What evidence have we seen that would suggest that we will be able to hit Andrew Luck with our existing 4-3 set? What’s more:
Given that our D Line cannot gain consistent penetration, what chance do we have of being able to stop a spread team like Oregon before they are WELL into our defensive secondary?
Given that our pass rush has been non-existent, what evidence do we have that we’ll be able to slow down Oregon State’s possession passing game?
My answer to all of those questions: We don’t have any evidence!
So, it seems to me then, that key #1-749 for “Making Luck Suck” is to develop a package that will work not only for this game, but will be applicable to other games as well. And for me, that means nixing the 4-3 as our base package for a while and going with an aggressive/attacking 3-4 or 3-3-5.
In short, if you want to stop Luck, you have to throw him a steady mix of dropping multiple guys into coverage and completely selling out on the blitz using several guys, coming from several different angles. And although that approach may give up 21-28 points in the big play, the reality is that our base 4-3 is going to give up 45+ to the Trees while also limiting our ability to get our offense on the field.
Again, keep the existing scheme as-is, and not only do I fear that we’ll get TORCHED in this one, I think we’ll win only one of the next four. And that would be disasterous for our seniors, our coaches, and the fan base at large…
2) Play Tuel early, often, and forever.
Because Marshall has been so good for us, I find it a tragedy that his last pass could have been a game losing INT. He deserved better than that. Much better.
But, the fact of the matter is that because next week’s game against OSU is a 10000% MUST WIN for us, Tuel must get all of the rust off of him this week. Moreover, because this game officially marks the end of the first half of this season, if Tuel were to get the rust knocked OUT OF HIM (meaning if he sustained another injury), then he would be eligible for a medical redshirt. If he gets hurt next week, he gets NO such benefit.
So not only should be play him, we need to play him the entire game–even if he throws 6 picks and we lose by 42.
3) Play Action
I know that many of you didn’t like last week’s game plan. But this week’s strategy should be characteristically the same. In short, you can bet that Stanford wants Luck on the field ALL THE TIME in this one, and within that, you can bet that our potential to score and keep the game close scares their coaches to death. So, expect a HEAVY does of blitzes to get us off the field and behind early, meaning that we’ll need a healthy dose of Tuel scrambles, Mitz/Winston power draws, and quick slants to Wilson and Barton. But, for Wilson and Barton to go off, we’re going to have to run the football. And if we do, then we’ll be able to score enough–and gain enough Time of Posession– to keep this game close.
4) DEFER!
Of course, we may not have a choice in the matter, but if we win the toss, we MUST defer. As we all know, Stanford is a VICIOUS second half team, and so, if we have any chance of keeping it close and/or winning the game, we must have the ball to start the second half. Think of it this way, it the game is 20-10 Stanford at halftime, imagine the difference in the game if they start with the ball. I mean, based on previous performance, the odds are good that they score to make it 27-10 (game over!). But if we get the ball to start the second half, we might be able to enter the mid-point of the third in a 20-17 type game which might make Stanford tight during the stretch run.
And really, that is our only hope: Keep the crowd in the game through three quarters and hope they get the yips along the way.
Prediction:
While I am really excited about the prospect of a program defining win this weekend, I HATE the feel of this game. Not only do I think that Tuel will be REALLY rusty in this one, Stanford’s D is really good, and Luck is the master at KILLING teams that present the types of vulnerabilities held by our Defense.
So, call it 48-20 Trees in a game that will have us all VERY NERVOUS entering a must win game against the Beavs in eight short days.
All for now. Go Cougs
(Blast the Kahn freely and liberally at www.twitter.com/cougsutra)
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
