Thursdays are for panic, Fridays for sober realism.
The 106th meeting between Oregon and Washington should be a tremendous college football game. The Ducks aren’t on upset alert or in grave danger, but there are a few concerns. DeAnthony Thomas is questionable, termed a gametime decision. Colt Lyerla has left the team, and his two substitutes haven’t had the experience of making big plays in a rivalry game in a charged atmosphere. Head coach Mark Helfrich expressed concern about a slow start and “no urgent edge” against Colorado.
Some of the elements of the matchup with Washington are a concern too. The Huskies have three physical receivers and a big (6-6, 276) tight end. Running back Bishop Sankey is 4th in the country in rushing at 146 yards a game, the workhorse of an offense that has exploded in productivity since going to the no-huddle, up-tempo style, averaging 557 yards and 37.4 points a game. Keith Price looks comfortable, confident, rejuvenated as a senior behind an improved offensive line.
As we talked about yesterday the Washington defense in Justin Wilcox’s 2nd year is a transformed unit. They’re running and hitting, #1 in the conference at 287.8 yards per game, 3rd in the nation at 3.94 yards per play. The Huskies lost to Stanford last week by a field goal (the Ducks know what that’s like) but held The Cardinal offense to 279 yards, Kevin Hogan to 100 yards passing.
The #16 Huskies are the best opponent Oregon’s faced in the unfolding drive to a potential conference championship and a dream season. It was the game many pointed to as a possible trap when the Ducks took the field for practice in August.
In the words of the immortal Prince Humperdinck, “I always think everything is a trap. Which is why I’m still alive.”
To win the game, the Ducks have to be able to run the football. Stanford managed 179 yards on the ground, but Oregon’s healthy tandem of Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner is stronger than David Shaw’s committee at tailback. They’ll have to contain at least one element of the Washington offense, most likely Sankey. Last year against the Webfoots he gained 104 yards on 25 carries, with a long run of 15 yards.
Stanford got big plays in the kicking game to unravel the Huskies, but that’s been a point of emphasis this week in practice, and Steve Sarkisian has tabbed several members of the first team defense for coverage duty. They’re determined not to give up another explosion play on special teams, which may wear them down a little as the game goes on.
Washington Defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox succeeded in completely disrupting Oregon’s tempo in a 19-8 loss to Boise State back in 2009, but he’s 0-2 against the Ducks since. Trust that he’ll be ready with some wrinkles in the defensive scheme in the front seven, and Oregon’s offensive line will have to adjust cohesively in a loud, hostile environment.
The crowd is the biggest X factor in the game. Oregon’s played marvelously on the road over the last two years with a 17-game winning streak, tops in the country, but this will be an electric, charged-up atmosphere, even more so if the Ducks stumble to a slow start and trail into the second quarter.
Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota has amassed Heisman Trophy hype and decent stats, but he’s frustrated some Oregon fans with a reduced passing percentage and some errant throws at the beginning of games. Helfrich needs his now-veteran quarterback to play like one in the hostile environment, quieting the crowd and dampening the initial burst of energy from the beat up but charged-up Huskies.
Prediction: Oregon 43, Washington 34.
Please give your prediction for the game, and include some details about how you think the game will go and what the key factors of the matchup might be.
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