The future of Cole, Howard, and the NL East

MLB Prospectus

-Special focus on Cole Hamels & the Philadelphia Phillies-

*With the Pre-Preview of the Phillies Lineup & the NL East *

Well, we have officially reached a breaking point.  This winter, Cuban phenom defector Yasmany Tomas signed a six-year, $68 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  This high-profile slugger, who is now set to be a National League rival for the Philadelphia Phillies for the foreseeable future, represented the latter franchise’s best hope of any sort of a respectable 2015 campaign. Last year, the Phillies won 29 fewer games than they mustered in 2011.  Those 100-win summers seem so far removed now; almost like the latest season was a mirage caused by the dog days of August.  Dire times cause for dire measures, and this Phillies fan won’t rest until Ruben Amaro is out of office.

In addition to the Yasmany signing, credible and well substantiated rumors arose (but then subsided) that Cole Hamels will soon be traded to the Boston Red Sox.  Before I unpack any sort of emotional impact this move would have, I need to speak about the baseball impact of it.

Last season, Hamels produced at a Cy Young award-winning level.  You might not realize due to his innocuous record.  It made him look like he was a middle of the road pitcher at just 9-9!  But when you look at his other statistics, you get a better idea of how good he really is. Cole posted an ERA of 2.46, almost exactly the same as Justin Verlander’s 2011 Cy Young season when he had a 2.40. Hamels also had 8.73 strikeouts per nine innings, also very similar to Justin’s 9.00 K’s per 9.  The Cole Train, while he was still in the game pitching, received an average of just 2.73 runs per game.  It is mind-boggling to think that this stat could even be correct when you consider he regularly pitches into the eighth and ninthinnings when scoring becomes more difficult against the opposing bullpen. So statistically speaking, Hamels would be LUCKY to get a three spot on the board.  Pitching with the pressure of knowing that one mistake could be the difference between winning and losing requires maturity, poise, leadership, and determination to not let the other club drive in that runner at third base. Cole clearly has all of those attributes in spades.

The point I am trying to make here is number 35 is at the top of his game, he may even be better than when he won 2008 World Series MVP (he won a new Camaro for the effort; which was later gifted to his wife on account of his inability to drive manual). Hamels really is one of few bright spots on a bad team.  But more than that, he is forever remembered as a World Champion of Baseball, or more importantly as the guy giggling and fist pumping in the first row as Chase Utley dropped the F-bomb (Warning, language: Relive it here).

So how does that make you feel?

I am not sure about you, but not having a summer sports team worth mentioning is rather disheartening.  Even more so, at least to me, would be enduring that entire summer with no tangible ties to any semblance of relevance.  That is one reason, despite the bevy of prospects it may yield in return, I am staunchly against trading Cole Hamels.  He is a true top of the rotation cornerstone lefty that comes around once in a generation.  No matter what we would get back, Hamels is borderline irreplaceable.

Another valid reason to keep Cole is that we are now minus Jimmy Rollins, meaning there is only Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz as a holdover to go along with Hamels from the Glory Days (I refuse to acknowledge Ryan Howard still ‘plays’ baseball).  While it may seem nostalgic or not to be the right ‘baseball move’, it is important to have players in the clubhouse that know how to win.  They have been to the top of the mountain, and in the middle of August when the Phillies are 10 games back and a rookie is feeling the pressure of a 162 game marathon weigh on him both physically and emotionally, a few words from Cole or Chase could go a long way.

Also, when a team is steeped in a culture of mediocrity, it has lasting effects; just point to the Chicago Cubs as a case study.  Their long publicized, century plus championship drought has become engrained in their culture; it is part of their identity now.  Just look at this website; (not too long though, it is terribly demoralizing especially so for the sports fan in me) they have a fan club based on a 1908 World Championship, click here: 1908worldchampions.com.

That is what we must stave off, at the cost of a slightly longer rebuilding project.  Though the Phillies might want to go into win-now, quick-fix mode, especially now that ownership has changed, doing just that would only yield fool’s gold.  We must build this team from the ground up, and that starts with an improved scouting and minor league system.  Selling off our only player worth mentioning on a national stage would not necessarily correct the existing deficiencies. I certainly do not trust Amaro to flip the only sure thing on our team for a bunch of 18-year-old question marks.

What could this spring hold for our beloved baseball team?

Unfortunately, I do not have Hiiiiiiiighhhh Hopes for our team this year.  But that is not to say that they are devoid of any sort expectations.

The first thing that they need to do is jettison Ryan Howard.  That does pain me a little bit on the inside, as he was a huge part of the only championship that I have ever had the privilege of watching.  I loved watching those towering fly balls soar over the centerfield wall, or one memorable moonshot up into the third deck of right field, where the seat it hit now bears a white letter ’H’ in his honor.  He was, and still is, the only player to reach that elevation in Citizens Bank Park.

But as we know, sports are a cruel and fickle mistress. Has there ever been a more symbolic, and actual ending to an era of a team and a player then that last play of the Phillies 2011 season against the St. Louis Cardinals when Howard ruptures his Achilles tendon? That injury robbed him most of the explosiveness that he used to be able to generate from striding off of his powerful back leg, and as Ryan Howard goes, the Phillies go. Following that trend, the ball club nose-dived straight into oblivion.

Howard fans will argue that he still had over 20 home runs and 100 RBIs this year, but those raw numbers came at the expense of efficiency. He had the second worst percentage of runners in scoring position brought home, meaning he should have had many more runs batted in than his numbers indicate. Moving on at the first base position is a necessary evil as he is blocking Darin Ruf from getting his full time shot in the Major Leagues. While I do not think he will be the next Ryan Howard as a late-twenty’s phenom, the truth is we do not know what we have in Darin as he has not had a chance to play every day.

The next two players that needed to be removed, but inexplicably got RAISES, are Dominic Brown and Ben Revere.  Neither one can play a lick of defense in the outfield, but for different reasons. Brown lacks all instincts needed to succeed on a major league level, evidenced by the fact he routinely misses cutoff men, throws to the wrong base, and sometimes just runs the wrong direction. Ben Revere is the fastest player on the roster, but cannot seem to get to routine fly balls. This is due to the fact that he takes false (wrong) steps when the ball first comes off the bat.  This critical miscalculation results in him not getting to balls that are clearly within his range. He simply cannot track a ball; this is parks and rec league stuff.  Also, his defense is further compromised by his pop-gun arm.  If he happens to read this, I personally challenge you, sir, to a speed gun throw-off with your signing bonus as the prize.

Predictions

With the composition of the roster being what it is now, I have no choice but to include them in the lineups, with Howard being the exception as I am still under the impression he will not be in Clearwater, Florida for Spring Training (please baseball Gods have mercy on a once proud franchise).  If he does somehow cling on to his roster spot, you can pencil him into first base.

1. Revere, CF
2. Asche, 3B
3. Utley, 2B
4. Sizemore, LF
5. Ruf, 1B
6. Brown, RF
7. Ruiz, C
8. (Choose your utility player), SS
9. Hamels, SP

Not exactly the 2008 lineup huh?  Hopefully there will be some additions between now and March. Specifically at the shortstop position; which at the time being is a complete mystery to me.  I believe that it will be a combination of Wil Nieves, Freddy Galvis, and possibly Cesar Hernandez.  I also hope to see major platoons in the Phillies outfield for the first time since the 1993 season.  In center, I would hope that Revere splits time with Grady Sizemore; when he is not playing LF at least.  Then you can use a bench guy like Jeff Francoeur to spell the corner outfield positions while sprinkling in Ruf if Chase is at first base. On the assumption Howard is still on the team, you can expect Ruf to play against all lefties at first base and the sub in at the RF position.

When it comes to where teams will finish this year, my predictions do not bring me any pleasure.  I expect to see the NY Mets competing with the Washington Nationals way out in front, followed by the Atlanta Braves in a distant third. The Miami Marlins may not be significantly improved this year, but the Phillies would be hard pressed to compete in a suddenly very good division.  Full standings below:

1. Washington Nationals, 98 wins and 64 losses
2. NY Mets, 90 wins and 72 losses
3. Atlanta Braves, 79 wins and 83 losses
4. Miami Marlins, 75 wins and 87 losses
5. Philadelphia Phillies, 73 wins and 89 losses

Be sure to check for updates as Spring Training inches closer!  I accept and welcome all comments, arguments, and critique @learnfromleo on Twitter.