Point guard has been the biggest question on the Sixers roster since the team traded Michael Carter-Williams at the trade decline of the 2014-15 season. They have had some success with Ish Smith as the point guard for two separate spurts, but Smith is a free agent again and his play during the second half of the season doesn’t exactly inspire me to feel confident about resigning him. I think the new regime will want to acquire a point guard to stabilize the team and be there for the long term. One place where they could look for that is in the 2016 NBA Draft. There are a lot of point guards in this draft. Kris Dunn headlines the class but I don’t think the lead guard out of Providence is a good fit. He would likely require too high of a pick and I think there are some better value options lower in the draft. Today, I want to focus on two point guards who are projected to go into the late lottery, Demetrius Jackson and Wade Baldwin. These are two very different players but I think they could both sense for the Sixers if they traded up into the middle of the first round. Let’s break them down.
Demetrius Jackson
We will start with Jackson, who just finished his third year at Notre Dame. Jackson played his first two years alongside fellow point guard Jerian Grant so he spent most of his time offball. This year, after unexpectedly returning to Notre Dame, Jackson saw himself become the true lead guard for the Fighting Irish. Jackson saw an increase in usage as a result and that led to some minor inconsistencies. Jackson had a similar turnover rate as the previous year which is pretty good but he also saw a decline in his shooting. He especially saw a decrease in his long range shooting, which dropped from 43 to 33 percent. Jackson was still a solid catch-and-shoot guy from downtown but it is troubling that his shooting numbers were not particularly efficient when asked to run the offense. The Sixers would draft Jackson to be their lead guard of the future and would need the Notre Dame product to get back to his sophomore year efficiency to justify that pick.
Still, on the offensive side of the ball, Jackson has some really tantalizing skills and tools. Jackson is a small point guard at 6’1” but boasts a 6’5” wingspan and strong frame that may help make up for those deficiencies. He is an incredible athlete. Jackson is really explosive with a good first step and major leaping ability. This, combined with solid dribbling ability and a jumpshot that keeps defenses honest, allows Jackson to get to the rim and finish effectively. Jackson is also a really good, but not great, pick and roll player. His combination of athleticism and skill allow him to successfully score and create for others out of this set. The pick and roll is the staple of almost every NBA offense and Jackson is really solid there. However, sometimes Jackson struggles to hit rollers on these actions due to height limitations. He is a good passer but doesn’t necessarily have an elite feel for the game at the point guard position. This doesn’t mean that Jackson can’t run a great NBA offense, it just means it might be harder for him to do so. He will need to improve in a variety of aspects and be put into the right situation to reach his full offensive potential.
On defense, Jackson is a really good on-ball defender due to his length and athleticism. He can stay in front of opposing point guards well off the dribble and should be able to hold up in the post against most lead guards due to his strength. Jackson is not the kind of the guard who can switch the pick and roll with any real chance of success but he competes on the defensive end enough that I trust him as an on-defender in a league where point guard defense isn’t the most important thing in the world. Still, Jackson is not without his flaws on this end either. He too often spaces out on this end of the court off the ball. Jackson sometimes loses cutters and doesn’t always make the necessary rotations. Most young players struggle with offball defense but Jackson really needs to improve on this end of the court for the sake of whatever team drafts him.
Overall, I think Jackson is a nice prospect. He is a really good offensive player who can hold his own on the defensive end. He provides great scoring punch from the point guard position and I would love to see him running pick and rolls with some of the Sixers big mean. Jackson could really help the Sixers improve their anemic offense. Still, it’s hard to be completely confident in Jackson as the Sixers point guard of the future. He is a good player but I have a hard time seeing him becoming a top 10 point guard. He projects more as a middle of the road starter, which is more than the Sixers have currently, but may not be the best way to allocate resources.
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Wade Baldwin
Next up, Vanderbilt point guard Wade Baldwin. Baldwin wasn’t a highly touted recruit coming out of high school, but his play the past two years has catapulted him into lottery consideration. Scouts are in love with Baldwin’s length. Baldwin stands at 6’3”, fairly average for a point guard, but he boasts an enormously long 6’10” wingspan. That kind of length is incredible from the point guard position. It’s longer than a good chunk of wings and even some centers. With that length, Baldwin has the potential to be a force defensively. He could be a part of an aggressive defense that switches everything. Pair him with a wing in free agency (Kent Bazemore), Brandom Ingram, Robert Covington and Nerlens Noel, and you would end up with a team that could grow into an absolute defensive juggernaut. Even if things don’t unfold that way exactly, I think Brett Brown could get the most out of a guy with those defensive tools. The Sixers had a really good defense with Michael Carter-Williams and I think that Brown could do even better things with Baldwin.
Baldwin also has some skill on the offensive end as well. He shot above 40% from distance in both years at Vandy on a little bit less than 3 attempts a game. That shooting could transfer well to the next level. He won’t be pulling up from 3 off the dribble at a high rate, but he can hit open shots. Baldwin also greatly improved driving to the basket during his sophomore year. He doubled his free throw attempts per game up to 6 and improved as a finisher around the basket. Baldwin is also an asset in transition, as he can grab the rebound himself and to coast to coast with it. I think this is an incredibly underrated skill for point guards as it helps create east scoring opportunities as well as helping the team initiate the offense earlier in the shot clock. He also averaged over 5 assists per game, which is pretty good considering he had to share some of his playmaking abilities.
Still, there is a lot that Baldwin needs to improve on. Like I said earlier, he has made improvements in his finishing ability but he still needs more work. He often attacks the basket awkwardly and relies on his length too much when around the basket. Baldwin is a decent athlete but not an explosive one like Jackson. He will need to be craftier and get stronger to succeed as a penetrator at the next level. Baldwin also needs to improve as a playmaker in the halfcourt. He needs to tighten up his handle and continue to develop as a lead guard. He sometimes shares playmaking duties with Damian Jones so which is a little worrisome but he was Vanderbilt’s point guard and had a high usage rate. This is not the same as Jackson’s sophomore season at Notre Dame where he spent a lot of time offball so Sixers fans shouldn’t be overly concerned. Regardless, the tools are there but Baldwin needs to improve his ability as a pure point if he wants to be the longterm answer at point guard for any NBA team.
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Conclusion
Both of these guys have a lot of potential, but as the Sixers, I’m going to have to choose Baldwin. The defensive tools are really just too much to pass up. He is the kind of defender, who when surrounded with the right personnel, could completely shut down another teams ability to run the pick and roll. If you can do that, you can really destroy a team’s offense. Baldwin doesn’t have the athleticism or even some of the skill that Jackson does but he’s more likely to hit as an above average starter at point guard. If the Sixers are going to invest the capital necessary to move up for Baldwin (OKC pick, Miami pick and maybe even more) it should be for a guy with the upside to be a real difference maker. Baldwin is still young and I think he can catch up with Jackson in certain skill areas, which combined with his combination of great length and good athleticism, will really set him apart. Both guys are good prospects, but I would bet on Baldwin.
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