The Basics: Tuesday, January 2, 2012, 1:00 PM EST on ESPN2, from Jacksonville. Ohio State (6-6, 3-5 B1G) and Florida (6-6, 3-5 SEC).
It’s really hard to believe that in the history of both programs that the 2006 National Championship game was the first ever match-up between these two teams. This one hardly qualifies as a rematch and it is getting plenty of press about being the Urban Meyer Bowl. Both teams are 6-6 headed into the game and have some similarities after the record but very few. Let’s start with the men in charge.
COACHING
Will Muschamp took over the reigns from Coach Meyer last December after his retirement from coaching. He grew up in Gainesville and appears to be the leader of the future even after a very sub par season that had National Title expectations. Muschamp has a great pedigree of coaching and more recently was the head coach in waiting at Texas but just couldn’t pass up the Gator opportunity. In his 17th year of coaching he has a defensive background and has had great success as a coordinator posting several top 10 defenses and this years squad is NO different coming in at #9. He has a bright future in Florida and has been left with some great talent as a result of Coach Meyers recruiting efforts.
Luke Fickell is admired by many for what he has done in leading these Buckeyes this season. Tabbed originally as the interim head coach to stand in while Coach Tressel took a five game suspension, he was eventually given the title for the entire season when Coach Tressel resigned. Fickell played for Ohio State on one of the best lines to ever play there and lived in the trenches with Mike Vrabel and Matt Finkes. He has spent all of his time coaching at Ohio State save for two years at Akron. He recently turned down an opportunity to coach the Zip so he could return to his alma mater under Coach Meyer. He was the only person for the job this year and has done an admirable job at holding things together and giving the team a good reason to win this game and finish on a high note before Coach Meyer takes over the next day.
The match-up between the coaches is a wash record wise, however Coach Fickell is leading a team that wants to win for him and still has something to prove after finishing the regular season on a three game losing streak. . Coach Muschamp is trying to get his team ready for the future and has done everything in his power to belittle the Urban Meyer Bowl talk. He has paid very little attention to the talk and believes it’s just another bowl game for the Gators to win. He also may have an ace in the hole in interim offensive coordinator Brian White. He was the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin from ’99-’05 and was 4 and 2 against the Buckeyes including three wins IN Columbus. He’s got his work cut out for him as this offense is not that Wisconsin offense. Edge to Ohio State.
RUNNING THE BALL
Several times during the season most Ohio State fans wanted to see more passing from the Buckeyes. They hit rock bottom against the Illini as they upset the then 16th ranked team in the country after only completing 1 pass in 4 attempts. What the buckeyes did do well all season is run the ball at almost 200 yards a game, which ranked 27th overall in the nation. They star three very capable backs in Boom Herron, Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall and are a threat to convert on long third downs thanks to the running ability of Braxton Miller. Miller and Herron led the team this season with a combined on 222 carries for 1291 yards and 10 TD’s. Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall combined for 196 carries for 954 yards and 8 TD’s.
Florida hasn’t nearly had the success that they are used to running the ball and come in with the 75th ranked running offense at 144 yards a game. They have some talent at RB with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey who combined for 246 carries and 1329 yards and 8 TD’s but it drops off from there. Four other backs for the Gators share 9 more rushing TD’s and the team has fumbled 26 times, losing 11 of them.
The Buckeyes have the decided edge here in the running game having several options where the Gators have gone to the Rainey Well many times. The Florida run Defense is one of the better in the country but the Buckeyes have had their share of success against good run defenses this season. Edge to Ohio State.
Passing the Ball
The Florida Gators have enjoyed more success against their opponents in the passing game due to some maturing by John Brantley. His stats aren’t super but he’s grown in this offense and finished the season with 132 completions against 224 attempts for 1912 yards with 10 TD’s against 6 INT’s and a 140 QB rating. He’s shown flashes of being a very good QB and has a strong arm, which will help the Gator offense to stretch the Buckeye defense. His primary target this season Chris Rainey who had 28 receptions for 350 yards and 2 TD’s with a long of 83. Jordan Reed is next with 28 receptions and 307 yards for 2 TD’s. Florida has good experience in the receiving department and could be a problem for the Buckeye secondary.
There’s no denying that the passing game has improved since the Illinois game by leaps and bounds. Braxton Miller finished the season with 67 completions against 134 attempts for 997 yards with 11 TD’s and only 4 INT’s and a QB rating of 133. Brax has definitely shown flashes of greatness during the season bringing the team back from despair with his athletic ability as in the TD to Smith against Wisconsin. He is a Freshman in name only as he has grown beyond that as the season progressed. Coach Fickell even admitted recently that he wished they’d played him more earlier in the season. His favorite target has been fellow frosh Devin Smith, who had 12 receptions for 247 yards and 4 TD’s this season. Jake Stoneburner led the team with 14 receptions for 193 yards and 7 TD’s. Injuries and suspensions hurt the Buckeye receiving corps this season as Verlon Reed was lost for the season and Corey Brown was oft injured. Devier Posey didn’t return until Penn State and has been a huge threat to opposing defenses as evidenced during the TSUN game.
The Gators have the experience in place and the talent to get the ball to make this a game about who does the best in the passing game. The Buckeyes are healthy for the most part for the bowl game but will probably be without the services of Jake Stoneburner after arthroscopic knee surgery following the TSUN game. That could be a big problem for the passing game. Reid Fragel only has 5 receptions on the season but is very capable of filling in. Edge to Florida
Special Teams and Intangibles
The punting units for both teams have enjoyed the same amount of success on the season as they’re net punting averages are .35 apart — in favor of the Buckeyes. Jordan Hall has been one of the best kickoff return men in the country. He doesn’t have any returns for TD’s although he has a long of 90 yards on the season he averages 28.1 yards per return. Florida’s go to guy is Andre Debose. He averagedt 21 yards per return and had a long of 63 yards. Jordan Hall and Chris Rainey are the punt return specialist with 5.8 and 6.8 yards per return respectively and neither have had a return longer than 27 yards.
Field goals are usually looked at as a barometer of failed drives. If things play out the way that some people think with this game then the kickers really could end up being the heroes. They both lead their teams in scoring for the season and have enjoyed some nice prosperity as well. Caleb Sturgis leads the Gators with 91 points on 21 of 25 on field goal tries and hasn’t missed a PAT all season going 28 for 28. Out of those tries on FG’s he is 9 for 13 from 40 and beyond with a long of 55. Drew Basil Leads the Buckeyes in scoring with 74 points on 15 of 18 on field goal tries and had one PAT blocked at Purdue but finished the season 34 of 35. Out of those 25 FG tries Drew is 5 of 8 from 40 and beyond with a long of 47. It’s interesting to note that he hasn’t missed from inside 40 making all 10 tries on the season. Edge to Florida on special teams.
I touched on a few items that I consider to be keys to the defensive match-ups earlier this week. Ohio state is one of the better teams in the country in the turn over margin at a +.3 and Florida is second to last at -1.2. Turnovers can be a killer in games like this and the Buckeyes have been very efficient at scoring after turnovers. Of the 12 INT’s Ohio State had as a team this season, 5 resulted in touchdowns, and two in field goals. Of the five fumble recoveries the defense forced, two resulted in seven points, while two more were three points on the scoreboard. The special teams forced one punt block that resulted in 6 points. Overall, the Buckeyes had 12 scores on 18 forced turn overs — a 67% scoring after turn over rate. Pretty impressive.
In the 3rd down conversion department, the Gators have a decisive advantage as they are number 2 in the nation on third down prevention at 27%. The Buckeyes are better at converting third downs at 5.4 per game as the gators only convert 3.7 per game. This will become more important for the Buckeyes if there are no turnovers in the game. The Gators boast the #9 defense in the nation and the buckeyes offense needs to be a lot better at getting into short yardage situations than they have been this season.
The intangibles appear to be a toss-up between these two teams. The one intangible that I haven’t discussed is heart. This Buckeye team has been through a lot and their pride will not let them finish the season on a 4 game losing streak. The Buckeyes haven’t finished a season with 7 losses since 1897! The longest such streak in college football. They also want to win this one for their coach. These players have been close to Coach Fickell this season and had at one point held out hope that he would retain the job. As things would have it, the way the season ended, it just wasn’t to be. Coach Fickell gets to stay as the Co-Defensive coordinator and will do his best to have this team ready for this match-up. Edge to Ohio State.
All in all it should actually be a good game between these two 6-6 teams. The Urban Meyer Bowl, as people are calling it, will showcase the former players against the future and will decide who the champions are. I for one think the future will come out on top this time. Then, we will wait for the third game between these two.
Who Knows? Maybe it’ll be in the 2013-14 BCS Championship.
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