One of those cliche’ phrases that seems to come true more times than not is that “defense wins championships”. It is true that most of the elite teams do what they do the defensive way and that if you choose to dictate what the opponents offense can and will do, you will win. The Buckeyes and Gators aren’t playing for a National title this time, but they are playing for Coach Meyer bragging rights. Which team IS better, his old team that he clearly will always have an affection for? Or his new team that he has always dreamt of coaching and now holds the key to the future of in THE Ohio State Buckeyes?
Let’s get into crunching some numbers about these two defenses. On paper the Gators appear to have the edge. #9 overall in the nation and only giving up 299 yards a game and allowing roughly 3 scores a game is 25th in the nation. Their #39 rush defense has allowed an average of 132 YPG and their pass efficiency defense is in the top 20 at 114. Yardage wise, their #10 pass defense only gives up 167 YPG.
In what has been an off-year for the Buckeyes they’re a ways down the list in national rankings. Overall they have the 24th ranked defense in the nation at 328 YPG. They are right behind the Gators in the scoring category at almost 3 scores a game. The rush defense has given up 142 YPG and comes in at 53 while the pass efficiency defense has been average at 125, good for 48th in the country. They don’t give up the yards in the passing game though, ranking 15th with only 186 YPG given up.
Now that we’ve crunched the numbers, let’s really look at the two categories that will decide this game. First, let’s look at the turn over margin of both teams. The Buckeyes defense has had a bit of success this year. They are tied for #32 in this category at +.33 a game having more takeaways than giveaways. The Gators haven’t been as fortunate. They are 113 in the nation with -0.92 as they have almost a full giveaway a game more than takeaways. To help understand this number a little better, the Gators have thrown 12 INT’s and have only 8. They’ve fumbled the ball 11 times and have only recovered 4. The turn over margin in this game will play a big role in the outcome and the Buckeyes have the decided edge here.
Next up is what has been the Achilles heal for the Buckeyes all season- trying to get off the field on third down. The Buckeyes have been very inept, and at times teams seemed to gain LONG third down conversions on them. The Buckeyes are 62nd in the nation for third down conversion efficiency at 39.53% and have allowed 68 conversions out of 172 attempts by opponents. They cannot continue this trend against the Gators as the Buckeye offense will have little if any success against them on 3rd downs. The Gators are number 2 in the nation in this category at a frightening 27.54% Out of almost the same number of attempts as the Buckeyes, against 167 times the Gators have only allowed 46 conversions. We’re talking about the defenses here, but if the Buckeye offense can’t get into short yardage situations on third down against the Gators this could be a deal breaker. If the Gators continue to shine on third down, then this will truly be the Gator’s Bowl.
Both teams are 6-6 and both have very capable defenses that could decide the outcome of this match up. One interesting tidbit that I figured out for myself is the average ranking of the offenses these two teams faced in their 6 losses. I think everyone would find it interesting that Florida’s average opponents is 65 and the Buckeyes is 66. These two defenses are very evenly matched and it WILL come down to whoever wins the turn over battle and is able to convert on third downs. If the Buckeyes can get some scores off of turn overs then I don’t think the third down efficiency will come in to play. This defense is healthy for the most part and are in a nasty mood. They have a new coach to show off for and want to prove that they have the ability to be one of the best in the nation again.
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