MLB career trajectories come in all shapes and sizes, but an especially volatile one can still shock the system. Geovany Soto‘s first decade in the big leagues is one of those trajectories. The now 33-year-old began his career as a potential franchise cornerstone for a storied organization, only to be traded for spare parts just four years later and spend the next several years scrapping for starts. He’s been an All-Star, sub-replacement, and everything in between, and now that the lofty expectations have finally faded he seems to have settled into a stable place, as a reliable back-up catcher.
So far as bench players are concerned, it’s easy to do much worse than a guy who’s league average both offensively and defensively. If Carlos Perez struggles for an extended period of time in his sophomore season, the Angels can feel good that they have an adequate replacement ready to step in and take on a bulk of the starts without sacrificing much (if anything) in terms of overall value. Soto is a lifetime removed from his days as a three-win player, but he can still be an asset to the Angels roster.
Position: C | Age (2016): 33
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’1” | Weight: 235
2015 WAR: 1.0
2015 in a Tweet
Recovered from injuries that cost him most of 2014, Soto appeared in as many games last year (78) as he did in the previous two combined.
2016 Projections
[table id=170 /]Soto has only once posted a slash line as low as his projections suggest, and that was largely the result of knee issues and a career-low .222 BABIP. The odds seem pretty good, then, that he’ll best the numbers above. By just how much he outperforms his projections will likely depend on his ability to make consistent contact.
In his first ~2,200 MLB plate appearances, Soto owned a perfectly acceptable 22.1% K rate. In the nearly 500 plate appearances since, from 2013 to present, Soto’s K rate is an alarming 29.5%. Small sample or no, that’s pretty extreme. I have no idea what the cause of the spike is—nothing in his plate discipline stats sticks out—but facing fewer righties will probably go a long way toward keeping it from getting any worse. And if he ends up getting just the 140-160 plate appearances suggested above, it shouldn’t be too big a deal, but it could put him closer than the above projections than he might like.
Spray Chart
Unless he rolls over on a pitch, Soto really doesn’t pull the ball all that much. The bulk of his solid contact last season went either up the middle or to the opposite field, which is either a natural result of his approach or a function of Soto not being able to turn on fastballs anymore. Guess we’ll have to wait and see which it is as 2016 progresses. Feel the excitement.
Zone Profile
Soto gets the standard treatment for right-handed hitters, with a plurality of offerings coming in low and away. Pitchers also seem to have no issue challenging him with pitches down the heart of the plate, as Soto has mostly failed to punish them for it. Back in the day Soto absolutely crushed pitches low and in, but those days seem to have passed. Another hint that maybe his days of turning on fastballs are behind him.
Fun Fact
Soto went to high school at the American Military Academy, a bilingual private school in his hometown of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Wonder if he’s voting absentee for the presidential primary this weekend.
What to Watch For
Among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances in 2015, Soto had the fifth-best HR/FB% at 18.4%. In 2013 his 19.1% HR/FB% was second best. So long as he’s putting the bat on the ball consistently, the power numbers will be there. As noted above, that’s easier said than done.
A Bold Prediction
At some point in the middle of the season Soto will unconsciously forget to do his weird throw-back-to-the-pitcher thing, opening a rift in the space-time continuum and ending life as we know it.
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Previous Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella
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