For Gerrit Cole, 2016 was supposed to be the next step in an upward progression.
2016 was to be the year Gerrit Cole took a leap.
This, after a season where he made his first All-Star team, finished fourth in the National League Cy Young vote and was positioned to move to the head of the pack as the Pirates’ undisputed staff ace.
Instead, 2016 became a year of false starts, and a bumpy journey that came to a skidding, abrupt ending. It began with a delayed approach in Spring Training with a ribcage injury, then had an abbreviated return to form with a collection of mixed results in Cole’s first five starts. But then he began to find his stride, allowing only nine runs in 39 innings with an even 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six starts.
The inevitable trip to the DL
That set the stage for a weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals with Cole taking the ball for the opener on June 10 at PNC Park. He kept the Cardinals scoreless for the first two innings, but after a lead-off single by Matt Carpenter in the third Cole left the game with what would later be classified as a triceps strain. A few days later he was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
That was the first DL stint out of four this year, and the pre-cursor for a season lost to complications with his throwing arm, ending on the 60-day DL with elbow irritation and leaving us wondering not when we will see the 2015 edition of Gerrit Cole again, but which version will of him will we see in 2017? Or even worse, will he face another year of delays and setbacks?
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]2016 became a year of false starts, and a bumpy journey that came to a skidding, abrupt ending.[/perfectpullquote]In a sport where no. 1 overall picks are far more likely to flame out than have long, established careers as stars (the first ever no. 1 overall pick in the Hall of Fame, Ken Griffey Jr., was enshrined just this summer), the Pirates and their young wunderkind right-hander may be approaching a crossroads, one that far exceeds the mere question of who will start on Opening Day next spring.
Sour Grapes
A relationship between player and organization had already soured before the season began due to a contract squabble that should have only been minor, yet somehow — whether by error or arrogance, which is worse? — became major. Add multiple injuries in two of his first three full seasons (Cole was shut down twice with shoulder and then back issues in 2014), and now the thought of how much the Pirates could potentially pay Cole becomes an issue of risk as much as reward.
The talk of this offseason was supposed to be centered around a possible contract extension for Cole, how much it would cost and how many years attached it would take to get a deal done, but can that be discussed now without genuine concern? Cole is represented by Scott Boras, who helped another former no. 1 overall pick, Stephen Strasburg, land a seven-year, $175 million extension with the Washington Nationals. Like Cole, Strasburg is currently sidelined with an elbow injury, but by contrast, he has not been shut down for the season yet.
However, if there was hope for a Strasburg-like contract for Cole, the Pirates could not be given more pause to make a similar move now, given the injury state of both men. The Nationals can be patient with Strasburg. They have heavily invested both money and time in him after having Tommy John surgery in 2010, even shutting him down after hitting his innings limit in September 2012 during a postseason race to ensure his long-term health.
A Murky Future
Gerrit Cole, meanwhile, enters his first year of arbitration next season, ensuring him of a significant, but still limited raise. But what becomes of his long-term earning potential?
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]A relationship between player and organization had already soured before the season began[/perfectpullquote]The Pirates could take a risky approach and make an aggressive four or five-year contract offer, but is giving Cole a contract that he could maybe be healthy and productive enough to live up to worth the risk of being saddled with another eight-figure contract for an underperforming player? (See Liriano, Francisco; McCutchen, Andrew, circa 2016)
Strasburg being down for undisclosed amount of time won’t cost the Nationals the National East Division title, but it could weaken them as the best option to match up with the Chicago Cubs for the pennant. The residual loss of Cole for the Pirates, both in the short and long-term, is far greater. So also now is the conundrum of what their next move is with arguably their best homegrown pitcher since Tim Wakefield more than two decades ago.
These are questions the Pirates will eventually have to answer for themselves and deal with the attached consequences, but those answers, like Gerrit Cole’s expected development and ascendance to the top of the pitching elite, have been indefinitely delayed.
Josh Taylor is an award-winning sports broadcasting personality appearing on KDKA‘s sports coverage and programming.
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